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【泽平宏观】新周期是判断未来宏观和市场的关键——高频研判之五十三

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2018年11月22日 19:48:00
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(原)(标)(题)(:【泽)(平)(宏)(观)(】新)(周)(期)(是)(判)(断)(未)(来)(宏)(观)(和)(市)(场)(的)(关)(键)(——高)(频)(研)(判)(之)(五)(十)(三)(
文)(:方)(正)(宏)(观)(任)(泽)(平)(联)(系)(人)(:卢)(亮)(亮)(
核)(心)(观)(点)(:
新)(周)(期)(,从)(被)(争)(议)(到)(逐)(步)(被)(认)(同)(,正)(在)(被)(历)(史)(检)(验)(,越)(来)(越)(成)(为)(一)(个)(时)(代)(的)(标)(签)(和)(广)(为)(流)(传)(的)(主)(螺)(旋)(,一)(如)(改)(革)(牛)(、新)(5%比)(旧)(8%好)(、经)(济)(L型)(、一)(线)(房)(价)(翻)(一)(倍)(。
需)(求)(有)(韧)(性)(、供)(给)(出)(清)(、新)(增)(产)(能)(受)(约)(束)(,企)(业)(利)(润)(持)(续)(改)(善)(,消)(费)(金)(融)(周)(期)(等)(行)(业)(资)(产)(负)(债)(表)(持)(续)(修)(复)(,为)(新)(周)(期)(酝)(酿)(能)(量)(。微)(观)(世)(界)(已)(经)(发)(生)(了)(天)(翻)(地)(覆)(的)(变)(革)(,做)(宏)(观)(研)(究)(不)(能)(继)(续)(视)(而)(不)(见)(、闭)(门)(造)(车)(!周)(期)(是)(宿)(命)(,新)(周)(期)(是)(新)(的)(宿)(命)(。中)(国)(经)(济)(步)(入)(增)(速)(换)(挡)(期)(“经)(济)(L型)(”的)(一)(横)(,正)(站)(在)(“新)(周)(期)(”的)(起)(点)(上)(,未)(来)(需)(求)(侧)(二)(次)(探)(底)(可)(能)(幅)(度)(不)(深)(、斜)(率)(不)(陡)(。预)(计)(下)(半)(年)(四)(大)(周)(期)(支)(撑)(经)(济)(L型)(韧)(性)(仍)(强)(:房)(地)(产)(从)(销)(售)(向)(投)(资)(传)(导)(的)(补)(库)(周)(期)(,出)(口)(从)(衰)(退)(到)(复)(苏)(的)(世)(界)(经)(济)(复)(苏)(周)(期)(,制)(造)(业)(投)(资)(从)(产)(能)(过)(剩)(到)(产)(能)(出)(清)(的)(设)(备)(投)(资)(复)(苏)(周)(期)(,商)(品)(从)(弱)(补)(库)(到)(弱)(去)(库)(的)(库)(存)(周)(期)(。
2017年)(A股)(的)(核)(心)(逻)(辑)(是)(新)(周)(期)(和)(估)(值)(重)(构)(,一)(是)(在)(需)(求)(稳)(定)(经)(济)(L型)(下)(的)(产)(能)(周)(期)(出)(清)(行)(业)(集)(中)(度)(提)(升)(强)(者)(恒)(强)(新)(5%比)(旧)(8%好)(,二)(是)(IPO提)(速)(、打)(击)(炒)(壳)(、A股)(纳)(入)(MSCI等)(制)(度)(环)(境)(变)(革)(引)(发)(的)(估)(值)(体)(系)(重)(构)(,价)(值)(投)(资)(复)(兴)(。
近)(期)(新)(双)(创)(政)(策)(引)(发)(了)(市)(场)(关)(于)(会)(否)(风)(格)(切)(换)(的)(讨)(论)(,我)(们)(再)(次)(强)(调)(,在)(监)(管)(变)(革)(和)(国)(际)(接)(轨)(引)(发)(的)(估)(值)(重)(构)(进)(程)(中)(,驱)(动)(市)(场)(的)(核)(心)(逻)(辑)(是)(业)(绩)(基)(本)(面)(而)(非)(风)(险)(偏)(好)(讲)(故)(事)(,无)(论)(成)(长)(还)(是)(周)(期)(消)(费)(,必)(须)(业)(绩)(超)(预)(期)(、估)(值)(合)(理)(。
下)(游)(一)(二)(线)(地)(产)(销)(售)(回)(落)(,三)(四)(线)(仍)(强)(,土)(地)(购)(置)(改)(善)(,乘)(用)(车)(销)(售)(回)(暖)(,出)(口)(持)(续)(复)(苏)(。30城)(地)(产)(销)(售)(7月)(同)(比)(-38.0%,低)(于)(上)(周)(同)(比)(-37.3%与)(6月)(同)(比)(-33.5%,考)(虑)(到)(一)(二)(线)(限)(购)(限)(贷)(情)(况)(下)(三)(四)(线)(城)(市)(销)(售)(受)(益)(于)(大)(都)(市)(圈)(外)(溢)(效)(应)(、农)(民)(工)(返)(乡)(和)(棚)(改)(货)(币)(化)(,全)(国)(商)(品)(房)(销)(售)(好)(于)(一)(二)(线)(。7月)(土)(地)(成)(交)(和)(供)(应)(面)(积)(同)(比)(较)(6月)(下)(降)(,考)(虑)(到)(房)(地)(产)(补)(库)(需)(求)(、下)(半)(年)(政)(策)(要)(求)(增)(加)(供)(地)(、开)(发)(商)(现)(金)(流)(充)(裕)(,预)(计)(下)(半)(年)(房)(地)(产)(投)(资)(仍)(有)(望)(保)(持)(强)(劲)(增)(长)(。7月)(第)(三)(周)(乘)(用)(车)(销)(售)(增)(长)(13%,加)(速)(回)(暖)(;进)(出)(口)(贸)(易)(保)(持)(增)(长)(趋)(势)(,集)(装)(箱)(运)(价)(和)(国)(内)(外)(干)(散)(货)(指)(数)(同)(比)(仍)(在)(高)(位)(。
中)(游)(发)(电)(耗)(煤)(连)(续)(上)(升)(,钢)(铁)(库)(存)(结)(束)(21连)(降)(价)(格)(回)(落)(,水)(泥)(平)(稳)(,美)(元)(走)(弱)(,黄)(金)(原)(油)(价)(格)(上)(涨)(,铜)(价)(突)(破)(两)(年)(新)(高)(。7月)(发)(电)(耗)(煤)(量)(同)(比)(增)(11.0%,高)(于)(上)(周)(10.8%和)(6月)(5.6%,可)(能)(同)(时)(受)(生)(产)(较)(旺)(以)(及)(高)(温)(天)(气)(的)(影)(响)(。7月)(钢)(厂)(开)(工)(回)(落)(,钢)(铁)(的)(社)(会)(和)(钢)(厂)(库)(存)(结)(束)(连)(降)(趋)(势)(,钢)(价)(震)(荡)(下)(滑)(。水)(泥)(价)(格)(小)(幅)(下)(跌)(。本)(周)(美)(元)(大)(跌)(,黄)(金)(上)(涨)(。美)(国)(原)(油)(库)(存)(继)(续)(大)(幅)(下)(降)(超)(预)(期)(,原)(油)(价)(格)(收)(涨)(八)(周)(高)(位)(。有)(色)(价)(格)(走)(高)(,铜)(价)(创)(两)(年)(新)(高)(。
菜)(价)(同)(比)(趋)(稳)(猪)(价)(探)(底)(回)(升)(,短)(期)(利)(率)(跨)(月)(波)(动)(上)(升)(。7月)(鲜)(菜)(价)(格)(同)(比)(趋)(稳)(小)(幅)(回)(升)(,猪)(肉)(价)(格)(同)(比)(降)(幅)(继)(续)(收)(窄)(,成)(品)(油)(价)(格)(同)(比)(走)(平)(和)(中)(药)(材)(价)(格)(同)(比)(继)(续)(下)(探)(。本)(周)(R007利)(率)(为)(3.8032%,较)(上)(周)(上)(升)(18.51个)(BP;DR007利)(率)(为)(2.9341%,较)(上)(周)(上)(升)(8.39个)(BP;10年)(期)(国)(债)(收)(益)(率)(为)(3.6021%,较)(上)(周)(上)(升)(2.81个)(BP。人)(民)(币)(小)(幅)(升)(值)(。
风)(险)(提)(示)(:美)(联)(储)(加)(息)(超)(预)(期)(;国)(内)(货)(币)(收)(紧)(和)(金)(融)(去)(杠)(杆)(超)(预)(期)(;房)(地)(产)(调)(控)(过)(紧)(;改)(革)(低)(于)(预)(期)(;债)(务)(风)(险)(。
正)(文)(:
1、下)(游)(:大)(中)(城)(市)(地)(产)(销)(售)(下)(滑)(,乘)(用)(车)(销)(售)(向)(好)(
本)(周)(30大)(中)(城)(市)(地)(产)(销)(售)(环)(比)(上)(升)(8.5%。截)(至)(7月)(26日)(,30大)(中)(城)(市)(地)(产)(销)(售)(同)(比)(-38.0%,低)(于)(上)(周)(同)(比)(-37.3%与)(6月)(同)(比)(-33.5%;其)(中)(一)(二)(三)(线)(城)(市)(同)(比)(分)(别)(为)(-45.7%、-31.6%和)(-44.3%,上)(周)(同)(比)(分)(别)(为)(-41.2%、-32.6%和)(-43.1%,一)(线)(和)(三)(线)(城)(市)(销)(售)(同)(比)(降)(幅)(扩)(大)(,二)(线)(降)(幅)(缩)(窄)(。
7月)(土)(地)(成)(交)(面)(积)(和)(供)(应)(面)(积)(同)(比)(较)(6月)(下)(降)(。截)(止)(7月)(23日)(,100大)(中)(城)(市)(土)(地)(面)(积)(成)(交)(同)(比)(-0.5%,低)(于)(上)(周)(同)(比)(1.0%但)(仍)(然)(高)(于)(6月)(同)(比)(-3.3%,其)(中)(一)(线)(同)(比)(由)(上)(周)(的)(-55.3%降)(至)(-68.2%,二)(线)(城)(市)(同)(比)(由)(-19.5%上)(升)(至)(1.5%,三)(线)(城)(市)(同)(比)(由)(34.9%下)(降)(至)(8.5%。100大)(中)(城)(市)(7月)(土)(地)(供)(应)(面)(积)(同)(比)(-3.6%,低)(于)(6月)(同)(比)(12.4%;其)(中)(一)(二)(三)(线)(土)(地)(供)(应)(同)(比)(分)(别)(为)(-8.9%、-18.9%和)(12.4%,分)(别)(高)(于)(、低)(于)(和)(低)(于)(6月)(的)(-16.8%、10.8%和)(18.6%。
7月)(车)(市)(起)(步)(平)(稳)(,并)(逐)(步)(加)(速)(回)(暖)(。第)(三)(周)(乘)(联)(会)(厂)(家)(零)(售)(量)(日)(均)(4.98万)(台)(,同)(比)(增)(长)(13%,较)(上)(周)(提)(高)(8个)(百)(分)(点)(;7月)(累)(计)(增)(长)(6.2%,车)(市)(回)(暖)(趋)(势)(明)(显)(。第)(三)(周)(厂)(家)(批)(发)(同)(比)(增)(长)(14%,虽)(低)(于)(上)(周)(17%,但)(整)(体)(趋)(势)(走)(强)(。乘)(联)(会)(表)(示)(,由)(于)(市)(场)(竞)(争)(更)(加)(充)(分)(,税)(收)(变)(化)(难)(以)(影)(响)(主)(流)(车)(型)(价)(格)(,中)(美)(贸)(易)(谈)(判)(对)(汽)(车)(的)(影)(响)(不)(大)(,但)(仍)(要)(关)(注)(东)(南)(亚)(的)(汽)(车)(冲)(击)(。
上)(周)(电)(影)(票)(房)(收)(入)(环)(比)(下)(降)(21.4%,较)(上)(周)(下)(降)(19.2个)(百)(分)(点)(,观)(影)(人)(次)(和)(放)(映)(场)(次)(分)(别)(为)(-19%和)(-1.9%,主)(因)(为)(本)(周)(电)(影)(上)(映)(量)(减)(少)(。同)(比)(来)(看)(,上)(周)(票)(房)(收)(入)(、观)(影)(人)(次)(和)(放)(映)(场)(次)(分)(别)(为)(-5.8%、-8.9%、21.4%,分)(别)(低)(于)(上)(周)(的)(10.1%、11%和)(26.8%。
纺)(织)(原)(料)(价)(格)(同)(比)(增)(速)(持)(续)(放)(缓)(。本)(周)(中)(国)(纺)(织)(经)(济)(信)(息)(指)(数)(中)(的)(纱)(线)(价)(格)(指)(数)(环)(比)(下)(降)(0.13%,7月)(同)(比)(8.4%,低)(于)(6月)(同)(比)(13.7%。坯)(布)(价)(格)(指)(数)(环)(比)(上)(升)(0.02%,7月)(同)(比)(3.6%,低)(于)(6月)(同)(比)(4.8%。
集)(装)(箱)(运)(价)(指)(数)(同)(比)(波)(动)(上)(升)(。上)(周)(上)(海)(出)(口)(集)(装)(箱)(运)(价)(指)(数)((SCFI)环)(比)(下)(降)(2.8%,7月)(同)(比)(24.2%,较)(上)(周)(下)(降)(1.8个)(百)(分)(点)(,低)(于)(6月)(同)(比)(56.8%。中)(国)(出)(口)(集)(装)(箱)(运)(价)(指)(数)((CCFI)环)(比)(上)(升)(2.0%,7月)(同)(比)(27.7%,较)(上)(周)(上)(升)(1个)(百)(分)(点)(,低)(于)(6月)(同)(比)(28.9%。国)(内)(外)(货)(运)(价)(格)(增)(速)(上)(升)(。本)(周)(波)(罗)(的)(海)(干)(散)(货)(指)(数)((BDI)环)(比)(下)(降)(0.9%,7月)(同)(比)(27.3%,较)(上)(周)(上)(升)(4个)(百)(分)(点)(,低)(于)(6月)(同)(比)(41.5%。上)(周)(中)(国)(沿)(海)(干)(散)(货)(运)(价)(指)(数)((CCBFI)环)(比)(上)(升)(1.0%,7月)(同)(比)(19.1%,较)(上)(周)(上)(升)(1.5个)(百)(分)(点)(,低)(于)(6月)(同)(比)(28.0%。
2、中)(游)(:发)(电)(耗)(煤)(量)(持)(续)(上)(涨)(,钢)(价)(下)(滑)(水)(泥)(略)(降)(机)(械)(火)(爆)(
本)(周)(发)(电)(耗)(煤)(量)(环)(比)(继)(续)(上)(涨)(。6大)(发)(电)(集)(团)(日)(均)(耗)(煤)(量)(环)(比)(增)(加)(5.5%。截)(至)(7月)(27日)(,本)(月)(6大)(发)(电)(日)(均)(耗)(煤)(70.4万)(吨)(,高)(于)(6月)(的)(62.8万)(吨)(。7月)(发)(电)(耗)(煤)(量)(同)(比)(增)(加)(11.0%,高)(于)(上)(周)(同)(比)(10.8%和)(6月)(同)(比)(5.6%。7月)(持)(续)(高)(温)(天)(气)(导)(致)(居)(民)(用)(电)(上)(升)(,从)(而)(干)(扰)(发)(电)(耗)(煤)(指)(标)(与)(工)(业)(生)(产)(之)(间)(的)(相)(关)(性)(。截)(至)(7月)(26日)(,17年)(7月)(日)(均)(最)(高)(温)(为)(32.4℃,比)(16年)(同)(期)(高)(1.5℃。
国)(内)(钢)(厂)(上)(周)(盈)(利)(比)(率)(85.9%,高)(于)(上)(周)(85.3%,创)(15周)(以)(来)(最)(高)(位)(。上)(周)(全)(国)(高)(炉)(开)(工)(率)(为)(76.9%,环)(比)(减)(少)(0.3个)(百)(分)(点)(,7、8月)(检)(修)(季)(,生)(产)(相)(应)(有)(所)(放)(缓)(。截)(至)(7月)(10日)(,日)(粗)(钢)(产)(量)(7月)(同)(比)(增)(长)(4.1%,高)(于)(6月)(同)(比)(3.4%和)(5月)(同)(比)(-1.8%。钢)(材)(社)(会)(库)(存)(结)(束)(了)(连)(续)(21周)(的)(下)(降)(趋)(势)(,转)(而)(出)(现)(上)(升)(,库)(存)(水)(平)(较)(去)(年)(同)(期)(增)(加)(57.9万)(吨)(,增)(幅)(6.56%。从)(季)(节)(性)(来)(看)(,秋)(季)(旺)(季)(时)(节)(前)(社)(会)(库)(存)(处)(于)(易)(积)(累)(阶)(段)(。本)(周)(螺)(纹)(钢)(价)(格)(震)(荡)(波)(动)(,周)(环)(比)(下)(降)(0.2%,7月)(螺)(纹)(钢)(价)(格)(同)(比)(57.9%,低)(于)(6月)(同)(比)(65.0%。
水)(泥)(需)(求)(淡)(季)(但)(环)(保)(高)(压)(下)(价)(格)(维)(持)(高)(位)(。京)(津)(冀)(地)(区)(环)(境)(问)(题)(愈)(发)(严)(峻)(,环)(保)(持)(续)(高)(压)(下)(,执)(行)(新)(的)(排)(放)(限)(值)(标)(准)(预)(计)(使)(区)(域)(行)(业)(停)(窑)(限)(产)(执)(行)(更)(加)(严)(格)(,行)(业)(自)(律)(较)(以)(往)(更)(强)(。本)(周)(水)(泥)(价)(格)(环)(比)(下)(降)(0.4%,7月)(同)(比)(增)(加)(31.9%,高)(于)(6月)(同)(比)(31.6%。
环)(保)(助)(力)(化)(工)(品)(普)(涨)(,有)(机)(产)(品)(涨)(价)(明)(显)(。环)(保)(检)(修)(叠)(加)(3季)(度)(补)(库)(存)(需)(求)(回)(升)(,近)(期)(化)(工)(品)(价)(格)(普)(涨)(。本)(周)(化)(工)(板)(块)(价)(格)(环)(比)(上)(升)(的)(产)(品)(有)(31种)(,涨)(幅)(前)(3的)(商)(品)(分)(别)(是)(辛)(醇)((环)(比)(增)(长)(21.7%,同)(比)(增)(长)(55.9%,较)(上)(周)(增)(长)(32.5个)(百)(分)(比)()、DOP(华)(东)()(环)(比)(增)(长)(17.4%,同)(比)(增)(长)(43.7%,较)(上)(周)(增)(长)(27.4个)(百)(分)(比)()、TDI(环)(比)(增)(长)(10.3%,同)(比)(增)(长)(87.6%,较)(上)(周)(增)(长)(14.4个)(百)(分)(比)()。环)(比)(下)(降)(的)(商)(品)(共)(有)(27种)(,跌)(幅)(前)(3的)(产)(品)(分)(别)(为)(DMF(环)(比)(下)(降)(6.4%,同)(比)(增)(长)(11.6%,较)(上)(周)(下)(降)(7.1个)(百)(分)(比)()、硫)(酸)((环)(比)(下)(降)(4.7%,同)(比)(增)(长)(4.7%,较)(上)(周)(下)(降)(5.2个)(百)(分)(比)()、苯)(胺)((环)(比)(下)(降)(4.1%,同)(比)(增)(长)(20.8%,较)(上)(周)(下)(降)(5.0个)(百)(分)(比)()。
工)(程)(机)(械)(销)(量)(持)(续)(超)(预)(期)(,但)(开)(工)(情)(况)(连)(续)(走)(低)(。根)(据)(工)(程)(机)(械)(协)(会)(公)(布)(的)(最)(新)(数)(据)(,6月)(挖)(掘)(机)(销)(量)(8933台)(,同)(比)(增)(长)(100.8%;1-6月)(累)(计)(销)(量)(75068台)(,同)(比)(增)(长)(100.5%,已)(经)(超)(过)(了)(2016年)(全)(年)(销)(量)(水)(平)(。然)(而)(,6月)(小)(松)(挖)(掘)(机)(平)(均)(开)(机)(小)(时)(数)(133.5小)(时)(,同)(比)(增)(长)(3.2%,低)(于)(5月)(同)(比)(7.2%和)(4月)(同)(比)(13.6%。
3、上)(游)(:美)(元)(大)(跌)(金)(价)(原)(油)(大)(涨)(,铜)(价)(创)(两)(年)(新)(高)(
本)(周)(CRB工)(业)(原)(材)(料)(指)(数)(环)(比)(增)(加)(0.2%,7月)(同)(比)(10.2%,低)(于)(6月)(同)(比)(11.2%。南)(华)(工)(业)(品)(指)(数)(环)(比)(下)(降)(0.5%,7月)(同)(比)(33.5%,高)(于)(6月)(同)(比)(32.9%;南)(华)(农)(产)(品)(指)(数)(环)(比)(下)(降)(0.9%,7月)(同)(比)(0.2%,高)(于)(6月)(同)(比)(-1.4%。
美)(联)(储)(利)(率)(维)(稳)(声)(明)(偏)(鸽)(,美)(元)(刷)(新)(13个)(月)(新)(低)(位)(。本)(周)(美)(元)(指)(数)(环)(比)(下)(跌)(1.5%,7月)(同)(比)(-1.37%,低)(于)(6月)(同)(比)(2.5%。受)(美)(国)(强)(劲)(经)(济)(数)(据)(和)(美)(联)(储)(利)(率)(维)(稳)(影)(响)(,本)(周)(金)(价)(波)(动)(剧)(烈)(。本)(周)(伦)(敦)(现)(货)(黄)(金)(环)(比)(增)(加)(0.5%,7月)(同)(比)(-7.9%,低)(于)(6月)(同)(比)(-1.3%。
美)(国)(EIA原)(油)(库)(存)(降)(幅)(继)(续)(超)(过)(预)(期)(,油)(价)(收)(涨)(至)(八)(周)(高)(位)(。本)(周)(WTI原)(油)(价)(格)(环)(比)(上)(涨)(3.5%,7月)(同)(比)(上)(涨)(1.8%,高)(于)(6月)(同)(比)(-7.8%。美)(联)(储)(偏)(鸽)(言)(论)(美)(元)(走)(软)(,石)(油)(上)(行)(空)(间)(加)(大)(;委)(内)(瑞)(拉)(国)(内)(经)(济)(进)(一)(步)(恶)(化)(,地)(缘)(政)(治)(风)(险)(加)(剧)(,利)(好)(石)(油)(价)(格)(。美)(国)(方)(面)(,原)(油)(库)(存)(降)(幅)(大)(于)(预)(期)(,国)(际)(油)(价)(大)(幅)(冲)(高)(。7月)(14日)(当)(周)(EIA原)(油)(库)(存)(下)(降)(720万)(桶)(,预)(期)(下)(降)(260万)(桶)(;汽)(油)(库)(存)(减)(少)(101.5万)(桶)(,预)(期)(下)(降)(61.4万)(桶)(。
有)(色)(价)(格)(持)(续)(走)(高)(,铜)(价)(突)(破)(两)(年)(高)(位)(。有)(报)(道)(声)(称)(,中)(国)(计)(划)(从)(明)(年)(年)(底)(开)(始)(,禁)(止)(进)(口)(废)(金)(属)(,带)(动)(铜)(价)(大)(幅)(上)(涨)(。LME铜)(本)(周)(环)(比)(增)(长)(4.7%,7月)(同)(比)(22.0%,低)(于)(6月)(同)(比)(22.6%。LME铝)(价)(格)(周)(环)(比)(增)(长)(0.3%,7月)(同)(比)(16.8%,低)(于)(6月)(同)(比)(18.4%。LME锌)(价)(格)(周)(环)(比)(增)(长)(1.6%,7月)(同)(比)(27.4%,高)(于)(6月)(同)(比)(26.2%。
4、价)(格)(:菜)(价)(走)(稳)(猪)(价)(降)(幅)(收)(窄)(,油)(价)(和)(药)(价)(回)(落)(
本)(周)(农)(业)(部)(28种)(重)(点)(监)(测)(蔬)(菜)(平)(均)(批)(发)(价)(环)(比)(上)(涨)(6.0%,前)(海)(蔬)(菜)(批)(发)(价)(格)(指)(数)(环)(比)(上)(涨)(2.5%,山)(东)(地)(区)(的)(蔬)(菜)(批)(发)(价)(格)(指)(数)(环)(比)(上)(涨)(9.2%。农)(业)(部)(28种)(重)(点)(监)(测)(蔬)(菜)(平)(均)(批)(发)(价)(、前)(海)(蔬)(菜)(批)(发)(价)(格)(指)(数)(和)(山)(东)(地)(区)(的)(蔬)(菜)(批)(发)(价)(格)(指)(数)(7月)(同)(比)(分)(别)(为)(1.8%、1.3%和)(16.6%,分)(别)(较)(上)(周)(上)(升)(2.2、1.2和)(6.9个)(百)(分)(点)(,均)(高)(于)(6月)(的)(1.7%、0.2%和)(4.1%。
猪)(肉)(价)(格)(同)(比)(降)(幅)(收)(窄)(。本)(周)(农)(业)(部)(猪)(肉)(平)(均)(批)(发)(价)(环)(比)(上)(涨)(0.8%,7月)(同)(比)(下)(跌)(22.8%,较)(上)(周)(上)(涨)(了)(0.1个)(百)(分)(点)(,高)(于)(6月)(的)(-25.5%。36个)(城)(市)(猪)(肉)(平)(均)(零)(售)(价)(环)(比)(下)(降)(0.1%,7月)(同)(比)(下)(跌)(11.3%,与)(上)(周)(持)(平)(,高)(于)(6月)(的)(-11.5%。36个)(城)(市)(牛)(肉)(和)(羊)(肉)(平)(均)(零)(售)(价)(7月)(同)(比)(分)(别)(为)(-1.0%和)(-2.7%,分)(别)(高)(于)(和)(低)(于)(6月)(的)(-1.5%和)(-2.4%。36个)(城)(市)(草)(鱼)(和)(鲢)(鱼)(平)(均)(零)(售)(价)(7月)(同)(比)(分)(别)(为)(10.6%和)(5.3%,分)(别)(低)(于)(和)(高)(于)(6月)(的)(11.5%和)(4.5%。
非)(食)(品)(方)(面)(,全)(国)(成)(品)(油)(价)(格)(环)(比)(同)(比)(均)(持)(平)(上)(周)(。全)(国)(成)(品)(油)(价)(格)(指)(数)(7月)(同)(比)(上)(涨)(5.2%,与)(上)(周)(持)(平)(,略)(低)(于)(6月)(的)(5.5%。中)(国)(成)(都)(中)(药)(材)(价)(格)(指)(数)(7月)(同)(比)(10.5%,与)(上)(周)(持)(平)(,较)(6月)(同)(比)(12.7%下)(跌)(了)(2.2个)(百)(分)(点)(。
5、货)(币)(:央)(行)(维)(稳)(跨)(月)(流)(动)(性)(,短)(端)(利)(率)(上)(升)(
本)(周)(央)(行)(公)(开)(市)(场)(共)(有)(3300亿)(逆)(回)(购)(到)(期)(,周)(一)(至)(周)(五)(分)(别)(到)(期)(1300亿)(、1400亿)(、1300亿)(、400亿)(和)(1000亿)(。此)(外)(周)(一)(还)(有)(1385亿)(MLF到)(期)(,无)(正)(回)(购)(和)(央)(票)(到)(期)(。本)(周)(一)(到)(周)(四)(,央)(行)(公)(开)(市)(场)(分)(别)(进)(行)(3500亿)(、1400亿)(、1300亿)(和)(600亿)(逆)(回)(购)(操)(作)(。临)(近)(月)(末)(,市)(场)(需)(求)(主)(要)(集)(中)(在)(跨)(月)(资)(金)(,央)(行)(加)(大)(7天)(期)(资)(金)(供)(应)(,意)(在)(维)(稳)(跨)(月)(流)(动)(性)(。
截)(至)(7月)(27日)(,1天)(期)(银)(行)(间)(回)(购)(加)(权)(利)(率)(为)(2.9596%,较)(上)(周)(下)(降)(0.84个)(BP;7天)(期)(银)(行)(间)(回)(购)(加)(权)(利)(率)(为)(3.8032%,较)(上)(周)(上)(升)(18.51个)(BP。1天)(期)(存)(款)(类)(机)(构)(回)(购)(加)(权)(利)(率)(为)(2.8313%,较)(上)(周)(上)(升)(1.69个)(BP;7天)(期)(存)(款)(类)(机)(构)(回)(购)(加)(权)(利)(率)(为)(2.9341%,较)(上)(周)(上)(升)(8.39个)(BP。1年)(期)(国)(债)(收)(益)(率)(为)(3.3889%,较)(上)(周)(下)(降)(1.82个)(BP;10年)(期)(国)(债)(收)(益)(率)(为)(3.6021%,较)(上)(周)(上)(升)(2.81个)(BP。
珠)(三)(角)(票)(据)(直)(贴)(利)(率)((月)(息)()和)(长)(三)(角)(票)(据)(直)(贴)(利)(率)((月)(息)()均)(较)(上)(周)(下)(降)(15个)(BP,票)(据)(转)(贴)(利)(率)((月)(息)()亦)(下)(降)(15个)(BP。本)(周)(不)(同)(期)(限)(的)(信)(用)(利)(差)(有)(所)(不)(同)(,1年)(期)(AAA企)(业)(债)(的)(信)(用)(利)(差)(扩)(大)(5.24个)(BP,10年)(期)(AAA企)(业)(债)(的)(信)(用)(利)(差)(缩)(窄)(1.29个)(BP。
人)(民)(币)(汇)(率)(小)(幅)(升)(值)(,远)(期)(贬)(值)(压)(力)(小)(幅)(上)(升)(。本)(周)(美)(元)(兑)(人)(民)(币)(中)(间)(价)(升)(值)(0.23%,美)(元)(兑)(人)(民)(币)(即)(期)(汇)(率)(升)(值)(0.46%,离)(岸)(人)(民)(币)(升)(值)(0.24%。在)(岸)(和)(离)(岸)(人)(民)(币)(汇)(率)(价)(差)(由)(上)(周)(的)(-0.0040变)(至)(-0.0018,美)(元)(兑)(人)(民)(币)(1年)(期)(外)(汇)(远)(期)(买)(报)(价)(增)(加)(25个)(BP,远)(期)(贬)(值)(压)(力)(上)(升)(。
返)(回)(搜)(狐)(,查)(看)(更)(多)(责)(任)(编)(辑)(:
声)(明)(:该)(文)(观)(点)(仅)(代)(表)(作)(者)(本)(人)(,搜)(狐)(号)(系)(信)(息)(发)(布)(平)(台)(,搜)(狐)(仅)(提)(供)(信)(息)(存)(储)(空)(间)(服)(务)(。
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