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2008年石油有多黑:控制了石油就控制了所有国家

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2018年10月21日 09:52:47
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(美)(国)(对)(世)(界)(控)(制)(的)(关)(键)(是)(确)(保)(石)(油)(标)(价)(和)(结)(算)(只)(能)(用)(美)(元)(。
  自)(20世)(纪)(80年)(代)(后)(期)(纽)(约)(和)(伦)(敦)(两)(大)(期)(货)(交)(易)(所)(成)(立)(后)(,石)(油)(价)(格)(的)(定)(价)(权)(已)(经)(从)(欧)(佩)(克)(逐)(渐)(转)(移)(到)(华)(尔)(街)(。全)(球)(石)(油)(价)(格)(是)(涨)(是)(跌)(,不)(仅)(与)(供)(给)(和)(需)(求)(有)(关)(,更)(要)(看)(华)(尔)(街)(的)(眼)(色)(。少)(数)(金)(融)(机)(构)(和)(英)(美)(四)(大)(石)(油)(公)(司)(实)(际)(掌)(控)(了)(国)(际)(油)(价)(的)(涨)(落)(。
  2006年)(后)(美)(国)(信)(贷)(市)(场)(动)(荡)(和)(房)(地)(产)(泡)(沫)(的)(破)(裂)(,大)(批)(投)(机)(者)(转)(入)(石)(油)(等)(大)(宗)(商)(品)(市)(场)(。根)(据)(测)(算)(,从)(2006年)(到)(2008年)(4月)(,超)(过)(900亿)(美)(元)(新)(增)(资)(金)(进)(入)(商)(品)(期)(货)(市)(场)(,正)(如)(莫)(尔)(斯)(团)(队)(的)(研)(究)(报)(告)(所)(预)(测)(的)(那)(样)(,每)(1亿)(美)(元)(资)(金)(净)(流)(入)(,就)(会)(使)(得)(石)(油)(价)(格)(上)(涨)(1.6%
  “如)(果)(你)(控)(制)(了)(石)(油)(,你)(就)(控)(制)(住)(了)(所)(有)(国)(家)(。”上)(世)(纪)(80年)(代)(,华)(尔)(街)(将)(石)(油)(作)(为)(投)(资)(标)(的)(,引)(入)(金)(融)(市)(场)(,自)(此)(,石)(油)(不)(是)(化)(石)(燃)(料)(,不)(是)(工)(业)(血)(液)(,而)(是)(华)(尔)(街)(的)(“提)(线)(木)(偶)(”。
  2008年)(的)(石)(油)(市)(场)(,就)(完)(美)(地)(演)(绎)(了)(这)(个)(判)(断)(。当)(年)(1月)(2日)(12时)(10分)(左)(右)(,原)(油)(期)(货)(突)(破)(“国)(际)(政)(治)(经)(济)(心)(理)(底)(线)(”,升)(至)(100美)(元)(/桶)(,随)(后)(不)(到)(6个)(月)(时)(间)(上)(涨)(了)(50%,至)(147美)(元)(/桶)(,又)(在)(接)(下)(来)(的)(3个)(月)(里)(下)(跌)(了)(50%,触)(底)(至)(70美)(元)(/桶)(。
  摩)(根)(大)(通)(、高)(盛)(集)(团)(、巴)(克)(莱)(银)(行)(以)(及)(摩)(根)(士)(丹)(利)(控)(制)(了)(当)(年)(石)(油)(商)(品)(掉)(期)(交)(易)(头)(寸)(的)(约)(70%,根)(据)(雷)(曼)(兄)(弟)(的)(研)(究)(报)(告)(,每)(1亿)(美)(元)(资)(金)(净)(流)(入)(原)(油)(市)(场)(,就)(会)(使)(得)(石)(油)(价)(格)(上)(涨)(1.6%。而)(2008年)(,石)(油)(期)(货)(市)(场)(新)(增)(净)(投)(资)(220亿)(美)(元)(。
  华)(尔)(街)(赢)(了)(,但)(全)(球)(政)(治)(经)(济)(格)(局)(大)(受)(影)(响)(。航)(空)(业)(所)(受)(打)(击)(最)(严)(重)(,全)(球)(通)(胀)(逼)(近)(20年)(来)(的)(高)(点)(。许)(多)(国)(家)(和)(地)(区)(都)(爆)(发)(了)(反)(对)(油)(价)(上)(涨)(的)(游)(行)(示)(威)(和)(罢)(工)(浪)(潮)(。
  阿)(林)(斯)(惨)(遭)(唾)(弃)(
  2005年)(3月)(,高)(盛)(分)(析)(师)((当)(时)(油)(价)(为)(47美)(元)(/桶)(左)(右)()曾)(预)(测)(,国)(际)(油)(价)(将)(冲)(105美)(元)(/桶)(。当)(时)(市)(场)(将)(这)(一)(看)(法)(视)(为)(天)(方)(夜)(谭)(,然)(而)(2008年)(的)(1月)(2日)(这)(一)(极)(为)(重)(要)(的)(心)(理)(关)(口)(被)(一)(个)(叫)(查)(德)(·阿)(林)(斯)(的)(交)(易)(员)(突)(破)(
  2008年)(1月)(2日)(,新)(年)(后)(的)(第)(一)(个)(交)(易)(日)(,全)(球)(股)(市)(在)(令)(人)(紧)(张)(不)(安)(的)(气)(氛)(中)(开)(盘)(了)(:刚)(一)(开)(盘)(,2月)(份)(交)(货)(的)(轻)(质)(原)(油)(期)(货)(价)(格)(就)(一)(路)(飙)(升)(,98美)(元)(/桶)(,99美)(元)(/桶)(,99.53美)(元)(/桶)(……随)(着)(显)(示)(屏)(上)(的)(数)(字)(闪)(烁)(变)(化)(,中)(午)(12点)(10分)(左)(右)(,一)(位)(在)(纽)(约)(商)(品)(交)(易)(所)(工)(作)(的)(期)(货)(代)(理)(人)(成)(为)(历)(史)(上)(第)(一)(个)(为)(一)(桶)(原)(油)(付)(出)(了)(100美)(元)(/桶)(的)(人)(。一)(分)(不)(多)(,一)(分)(不)(少)(,国)(际)(油)(价)(就)(这)(样)(轻)(松)(突)(破)(了)(三)(位)(数)(大)(关)(。
  如)(果)(不)(弄)(清)(楚)(是)(谁)(出)(于)(何)(种)(目)(的)(完)(成)(了)(100美)(元)(/桶)(的)(原)(油)(交)(易)(,就)(品)(味)(不)(出)(油)(价)(蹿)(上)(三)(位)(数)(时)(,老)(百)(姓)(、经)(济)(学)(家)(和)(政)(府)(心)(中)(的)(五)(味)(杂)(陈)(。
  100美)(元)(/桶)(是)(个)(心)(理)(关)(口)(,谁)(买)(了)(这)(一)(单)(,谁)(就)(成)(了)(全)(球)(老)(百)(姓)(痛)(恨)(的)(靶)(标)(。在)(交)(易)(发)(生)(后)(的)(短)(短)(几)(个)(小)(时)(内)(,就)(有)(引)(用)(不)(明)(消)(息)(来)(源)(的)(新)(闻)(报)(道)(指)(出)(,这)(些)(原)(油)(其)(实)(是)(一)(名)(“内)(部)(人)(员)(”购)(买)(的)(。一)(位)(用)(自)(己)(的)(钱)(做)(这)(笔)(交)(易)(的)(场)(内)(交)(易)(人)(先)(从)(另)(一)(名)(内)(部)(人)(员)(那)(里)(购)(进)(一)(份)(合)(约)(所)(允)(许)(的)(最)(小)(份)(额)(,即)(1000桶)(原)(油)(,随)(后)(他)(又)(以)(99.40美)(元)(/桶)(的)(价)(格)(将)(这)(笔)(期)(货)(合)(同)(全)(部)(平)(仓)(。一)(些)(主)(流)(媒)(体)(,包)(括)(《金)(融)(时)(报)(》在)(那)(一)(天)(都)(乐)(意)(援)(引)(朔)(尔)(克)(的)(评)(论)(:“一)(名)(场)(内)(交)(易)(员)(仅)(仅)(花)(了)(600美)(元)(就)(买)(到)(了)(一)(个)(值)(得)(向)(孙)(子)(夸)(耀)(的)(机)(会)(。”几)(十)(年)(后)(,他)(就)(可)(以)(对)(自)(己)(的)(孙)(子)(们)(说)(:“孩)(子)(们)(,国)(际)(油)(价)(在)(2008年)(1月)(2日)(首)(次)(突)(破)(100美)(元)(/桶)(这)(件)(事)(是)(我)(干)(的)(。”
  对)(市)(场)(人)(士)(而)(言)(,这)(笔)(交)(易)(很)(有)(“恶)(作)(剧)(”意)(味)(,因)(为)(这)(一)(批)(原)(油)(交)(易)(不)(是)(在)(纽)(约)(商)(品)(交)(易)(所)(的)(交)(易)(大)(厅)(进)(行)(的)(,是)(通)(过)(全)(球)(电)(子)(交)(易)(系)(统)(成)(交)(的)(。而)(在)(美)(国)(以)(外)(的)(其)(他)(地)(方)(或)(市)(场)(,当)(时)(通)(过)(电)(脑)(进)(行)(交)(易)(的)(大)(部)(分)(市)(场)(玩)(家)(根)(本)(没)(看)(到)(100美)(元)(/桶)(的)(价)(格)(,这)(就)(是)(场)(内)(买)(卖)(盘)(和)(场)(外)(买)(卖)(盘)(两)(个)(独)(立)(的)(流)(通)(体)(给)(世)(界)(创)(造)(的)(100美)(元)(/桶)(的)(故)(事)(。很)(多)(人)(怀)(疑)(这)(笔)(交)(易)(的)(合)(法)(性)(,认)(为)(交)(易)(系)(统)(不)(应)(该)(保)(留)(这)(一)(交)(易)(记)(录)(。
  很)(快)(,媒)(体)(披)(露)(的)(“内)(部)(人)(员)(”被)(揪)(了)(出)(来)(,他)(叫)(理)(查)(德)(·阿)(林)(斯)(,确)(实)(是)(一)(名)(场)(内)(交)(易)(员)(,正)(经)(营)(一)(家)(名)(为)(ABS的)(经)(纪)(公)(司)(,他)(既)(没)(承)(认)(也)(不)(否)(认)(自)(己)(在)(这)(一)(风)(波)(中)(的)(所)(作)(所)(为)(。
  理)(查)(德)(·阿)(林)(斯)(交)(易)(的)(真)(正)(动)(机)(耐)(人)(寻)(味)(,即)(使)(事)(隔)(一)(年)(多)(,他)(也)(依)(然)(拒)(绝)(接)(受)(媒)(体)(采)(访)(。但)(是)(,这)(种)(缄)(默)(行)(为)(并)(没)(有)(使)(他)(免)(受)(公)(众)(的)(讨)(伐)(。有)(人)(骂)(他)(是)(“虚)(荣)(心)(作)(祟)(”,2008年)(1月)(3日)(,纽)(约)(杂)(志)(网)(的)(大)(标)(题)(评)(语)(是)(“理)(查)(德)(·阿)(林)(斯)(走)(红)(”,他)(被)(大)(量)(网)(民)(唾)(弃)(,“因)(一)(己)(之)(私)(而)(给)(已)(经)(涨)(到)(极)(限)(的)(油)(价)(火)(上)(浇)(油)(”,愤)(怒)(的)(人)(们)(提)(议)(“把)(阿)(林)(斯)(绑)(在)(火)(刑)(柱)(上)(用)(比)(汽)(油)(更)(加)(便)(宜)(的)(燃)(料)(烧)(死)(”。
  深)(谙)(市)(场)(走)(势)(的)(行)(家)(们)(知)(道)(,阿)(林)(斯)(是)(无)(辜)(的)(。自)(2007年)(开)(始)(,国)(际)(油)(价)(就)(屡)(创)(新)(高)(,2007年)(秋)(,国)(际)(油)(价)(突)(破)(90美)(元)(,其)(后)(油)(价)(反)(复)(无)(常)(,尽)(管)(没)(出)(现)(每)(桶)(100美)(元)(的)(交)(易)(,但)(成)(交)(价)(格)(几)(次)(非)(常)(接)(近)(这)(个)(数)(字)(,2007年)(11月)(底)(,油)(价)(达)(99.29美)(元)(,2007年)(12月)(的)(最)(后)(一)(个)(交)(易)(日)(,油)(价)(虽)(然)(未)(触)(及)(99美)(元)(,但)(也)(没)(落)(到)(95美)(元)(以)(下)(。
  突)(破)(100美)(元)(/桶)(只)(是)(时)(间)(问)(题)(,2008年)(1月)(2日)(阿)(林)(斯)(将)(这)(层)(窗)(户)(纸)(捅)(破)(。
  100美)(元)(只)(是)(开)(始)(
  如)(果)(说)(,1月)(2日)(触)(及)(100美)(元)(/桶)(是)(一)(个)(意)(外)(,那)(么)(从)(2月)(开)(始)(至)(7月)(11日)(则)(成)(为)(一)(场)(多)(头)(的)(盛)(宴)(,纽)(约)(原)(油)(期)(货)(一)(路)(飙)(升)(至)(147.27美)(元)(/桶)(
  实)(际)(上)(,理)(查)(德)(·阿)(林)(斯)(的)(交)(易)(记)(录)(没)(保)(持)(多)(久)(,很)(快)(就)(被)(一)(个)(又)(一)(个)(的)(新)(纪)(录)(打)(破)(。2008年)(3月)(12日)(,国)(际)(原)(油)(价)(格)(冲)(破)(了)(每)(桶)(110美)(元)(,2008年)(5月)(5日)(,记)(录)(被)(刷)(新)(为)(每)(桶)(120.36美)(元)(。仅)(仅)(过)(了)(半)(个)(月)(,2008年)(5月)(21日)(,纽)(约)(商)(品)(交)(易)(所)(7月)(份)(交)(割)(的)(轻)(质)(原)(油)(价)(格)(轻)(松)(突)(破)(了)(130美)(元)(大)(关)(,收)(于)(每)(桶)(133.17美)(元)(/桶)(。
  2008年)(5月)(29日)(,雷)(曼)(兄)(弟)(发)(布)(了)(名)(为)(“这)(是)(一)(个)(泡)(沫)(吗)(”的)(石)(油)(研)(究)(报)(告)(。
  雷)(曼)(兄)(弟)(的)(这)(份)(研)(究)(报)(告)(是)(由)(莫)(尔)(斯)(团)(队)(负)(责)(的)(,项)(目)(负)(责)(人)(埃)(德)(·莫)(尔)(斯)(是)(逆)(向)(投)(资)(者)(,除)(了)(在)(普)(林)(斯)(顿)(大)(学)(教)(授)(国)(际)(货)(币)(政)(策)(之)(外)(,还)(在)(卡)(特)(政)(府)(任)(国)(务)(卿)(副)(助)(理)(,主)(要)(负)(责)(国)(际)(能)(源)(政)(策)(,曾)(与)(人)(共)(同)(创)(立)(了)(立)(场)(明)(确)(的)(PFC能)(源)(咨)(询)(公)(司)(,也)(曾)(任)(石)(油)(贸)(易)(部)(门)(主)(刊)(《石)(油)(情)(报)(周)(报)(》的)(发)(行)(人)(,2006年)(被)(雷)(曼)(兄)(弟)(投)(资)(银)(行)(任)(命)(为)(其)(商)(品)(研)(究)(负)(责)(人)(。在)(这)(份)(报)(告)(里)(,他)(发)(出)(警)(告)(,“当)(前)(的)(原)(油)(价)(格)(是)(一)(个)(泡)(沫)(,早)(晚)(会)(破)(灭)(”。
  莫)(尔)(斯)(团)(队)(一)(直)(研)(究)(的)(远)(期)(收)(益)(指)(数)(投)(资)(如)(何)(作)(用)(于)(纽)(约)(商)(品)(交)(易)(所)(原)(油)(期)(货)(市)(场)(和)(原)(油)(价)(格)(的)(。莫)(尔)(斯)(和)(他)(的)(团)(队)(独)(自)(完)(成)(了)(商)(品)(指)(数)(投)(资)(的)(计)(算)(,并)(得)(出)(2008年)(早)(期)(的)(纽)(约)(商)(品)(交)(易)(所)(原)(油)(总)(持)(仓)(为)(25%,甚)(至)(还)(计)(算)(出)(每)(一)(亿)(美)(元)(注)(入)(到)(商)(品)(指)(数)(作)(为)(一)(个)(资)(产)(类)(别)(,西)(德)(克)(萨)(斯)(中)(级)(原)(油)(价)(格)(将)(上)(涨)(1.6%。专)(家)(们)(还)(断)(言)(:在)(2008年)(第)(一)(季)(度)(,该)(指)(数)(投)(资)(确)(实)(对)(原)(油)(价)(格)(上)(升)(起)(到)(了)(关)(键)(作)(用)(。
  “石)(油)(泡)(沫)(”就)(在)(这)(份)(报)(告)(的)(基)(础)(上)(诞)(生)(了)(。此)(时)(,纽)(约)(商)(品)(交)(易)(所)(的)(投)(机)(性)(投)(资)(结)(构)(对)(2008年)(第)(二)(季)(度)(的)(纽)(约)(商)(品)(交)(易)(所)(曲)(线)(的)(作)(用)(越)(来)(越)(大)(。根)(据)(2008年)(5月)(的)(几)(个)(星)(期)(里)(曲)(线)(戏)(剧)(性)(的)(起)(伏)(,报)(告)(详)(细)(地)(说)(明)(了)(整)(个)(石)(油)(期)(货)(曲)(线)(走)(势)(是)(由)(不)(同)(的)(人)(为)(的)(投)(机)(策)(略)(所)(致)(。
  莫)(尔)(斯)(和)(他)(的)(团)(队)(发)(现)(:除)(了)(假)(定)(的)(长)(期)(投)(资)(者)(和)(只)(投)(资)(长)(期)(指)(数)(的)(投)(资)(者)(外)(,在)(长)(期)(期)(权)(下)(的)(短)(期)(投)(资)(者)(是)(把)(远)(期)(曲)(线)(后)(端)(抬)(高)(的)(主)(要)(参)(与)(者)(,于)(是)(就)(有)(了)(“期)(货)(溢)(价)(”这)(一)(概)(念)(,莫)(尔)(斯)(和)(他)(的)(团)(队)(将)(其)(称)(之)(为)(“反)(常)(推)(迟)(原)(油)(价)(格)(运)(动)(”。莫)(尔)(斯)(报)(告)(中)(写)(到)(:“在)(过)(去)(,生)(产)(商)(的)(卖)(盘)(会)(减)(缓)(或)(阻)(碍)(价)(格)(上)(升)(。由)(于)(这)(种)(缺)(陷)(,散)(户)(投)(资)(者)(听)(到)(了)(越)(来)(越)(多)(的)(关)(于)(石)(油)(峰)(值)(的)(言)(论)(。于)(是)(,他)(们)(继)(续)(买)(卖)(越)(来)(越)(高)(的)(行)(权)(价)(,这)(表)(明)(市)(场)(不)(需)(要)(有)(形)(参)(与)(者)(。换)(句)(话)(说)(,没)(有)(任)(何)(人)(能)(有)(阻)(止)(投)(机)(者)(把)(长)(期)(价)(格)(炒)(到)(天)(价)(的)(这)(一)(行)(为)(。”
  人)(们)(并)(未)(重)(视)(莫)(尔)(斯)(的)(预)(言)(,但)(市)(场)(表)(现)(应)(验)(了)(他)(的)(判)(断)(。2008年)(7月)(11日)(,纽)(约)(商)(品)(交)(易)(所)(的)(石)(油)(价)(格)(终)(于)(达)(到)(顶)(峰)(,每)(桶)(147.27美)(元)(的)(最)(高)(交)(易)(记)(录)(。2008年)(7月)(14日)(每)(桶)(145.18美)(元)(的)(最)(高)(石)(油)(收)(盘)(价)(,到)(7月)(18日)(,在)(纽)(约)(商)(品)(交)(易)(所)(即)(月)(交)(割)(中)(连)(续)(出)(现)(较)(低)(收)(盘)(价)(,并)(最)(终)(跌)(至)(每)(桶)(128.88美)(元)(。尽)(管)(出)(现)(数)(周)(的)(反)(弹)(,但)(自)(此)(以)(后)(价)(格)(趋)(势)(是)(每)(况)(愈)(下)(,直)(到)(2008年)(8月)(5日)(,原)(油)(价)(格)(跌)(破)(每)(桶)(120美)(元)(,2008年)(9月)(5日)(再)(跌)(5%,每)(桶)(跌)(破)(100美)(元)(大)(关)(,以)(95.71美)(元)(收)(盘)(。
  一)(年)(之)(后)(,当)(人)(们)(回)(首)(莫)(尔)(斯)(团)(队)(的)(研)(究)(报)(告)(时)(发)(现)(,“石)(油)(泡)(沫)(”真)(实)(的)(存)(在)(过)(。从)(很)(多)(方)(面)(看)(出)(,2008年)(夏)(天)(报)(出)(的)(原)(油)(价)(格)(都)(像)(是)(具)(有)(投)(机)(泡)(沫)(性)(。
  高)(盛)(再)(当)(黄)(雀)(
  “石)(油)(价)(格)(上)(涨)(或)(者)(下)(降)(,跟)(供)(给)(和)(需)(求)(基)(本)(没)(关)(系)(,油)(价)(是)(被)(华)(尔)(街)(随)(心)(所)(欲)(地)(控)(制)(。”资)(料)(显)(示)(,2008年)(,华)(尔)(街)(四)(家)(投)(资)(公)(司)(控)(制)(着)(70%的)(石)(油)(商)(品)(掉)(期)(交)(易)(头)(寸)(
  到)(底)(是)(什)(么)(原)(因)(支)(撑)(2008年)(7月)(超)(过)(140美)(元)(每)(桶)(的)(原)(油)(价)(格)(高)(峰)(?
  雷)(曼)(兄)(弟)(的)(研)(究)(报)(告)(预)(测)(2008年)(石)(油)(市)(场)(有)(泡)(沫)(,吊)(诡)(地)(是)(,高)(盛)(则)(不)(厌)(其)(烦)(且)(准)(确)(地)(预)(测)(油)(价)(上)(涨)(的)(趋)(势)(。
  当)(美)(国)(原)(油)(在)(2005年)(3月)(探)(试)(55美)(元)(新)(高)(时)(,高)(盛)(的)(全)(球)(投)(资)(研)(究)(分)(析)(师)(就)(表)(示)(油)(价)(已)(经)(进)(入)(“超)(级)(上)(扬)(”阶)(段)(,可)(能)(会)(飙)(升)(至)(每)(桶)(105美)(元)(。而)(年)(初)(,当)(国)(际)(油)(价)(上)(涨)(超)(过)(100美)(元)(时)(,高)(盛)(的)(首)(席)(能)(源)(分)(析)(师)(又)(做)(出)(新)(的)(惊)(人)(预)(测)(:“未)(来)(24个)(月)(间)(,原)(油)(价)(格)(将)(上)(涨)(至)(150美)(元)(至)(200美)(元)(每)(桶)(之)(间)(,促)(使)(石)(油)(价)(格)(不)(断)(上)(涨)(的)(主)(要)(因)(素)(是)(供)(给)(的)(缺)(乏)(。”
  《金)(融)(时)(报)(》的)(头)(条)(曾)(写)(到)(,“高)(盛)(分)(析)(员)(一)(张)(口)(,原)(油)(期)(货)(价)(格)(就)(上)(涨)(”。而)(一)(切)(预)(测)(的)(吻)(合)(都)(告)(诉)(大)(家)(,高)(盛)(是)(在)(“自)(导)(自)(演)(”一)(出)(高)(油)(价)(的)(行)(情)(戏)(,与)(其)(说)(他)(们)(预)(测)(准)(,不)(如)(说)(是)(他)(们)(就)(是)(这)(场)(石)(油)(泡)(沫)(危)(机)(背)(后)(的)(操)(纵)(者)(。
  自)(20世)(纪)(80年)(代)(后)(期)(纽)(约)(和)(伦)(敦)(两)(大)(期)(货)(交)(易)(所)(成)(立)(后)(,石)(油)(价)(格)(的)(定)(价)(权)(已)(经)(从)(欧)(佩)(克)(逐)(渐)(转)(移)(到)(华)(尔)(街)(。全)(球)(石)(油)(价)(格)(是)(涨)(是)(跌)(,不)(仅)(与)(供)(给)(和)(需)(求)(有)(关)(,更)(要)(看)(华)(尔)(街)(的)(眼)(色)(。少)(数)(金)(融)(机)(构)(和)(英)(美)(四)(大)(石)(油)(公)(司)(实)(际)(掌)(控)(了)(国)(际)(油)(价)(的)(涨)(落)(。
  2006年)(后)(美)(国)(信)(贷)(市)(场)(动)(荡)(和)(房)(地)(产)(泡)(沫)(的)(破)(裂)(,大)(批)(投)(机)(者)(转)(入)(石)(油)(等)(大)(宗)(商)(品)(市)(场)(。根)(据)(测)(算)(,从)(2006年)(到)(2008年)(4月)(,超)(过)(900亿)(美)(元)(新)(增)(资)(金)(进)(入)(商)(品)(期)(货)(市)(场)(,正)(如)(莫)(尔)(斯)(团)(队)(的)(研)(究)(报)(告)(所)(预)(测)(的)(那)(样)(,每)(1亿)(美)(元)(资)(金)(净)(流)(入)(,就)(会)(使)(得)(石)(油)(价)(格)(上)(涨)(1.6%。
  2007年)(至)(2008年)(这)(一)(轮)(石)(油)(价)(格)(持)(续)(上)(升)(的)(过)(程)(中)(,各)(种)(对)(冲)(基)(金)(、养)(老)(基)(金)(、投)(资)(银)(行)(和)(石)(油)(生)(产)(公)(司)(,通)(过)(签)(订)(合)(同)(间)(接)(加)(入)(期)(货)(市)(场)(。对)(冲)(基)(金)(、商)(品)(指)(数)(基)(金)(和)(其)(他)(大)(型)(非)(商)(业)(交)(易)(商)(等)(通)(过)(对)(油)(价)(未)(来)(的)(走)(势)(进)(行)(方)(向)(性)(赌)(博)(来)(获)(取)(比)(其)(他)(市)(场)(更)(可)(观)(的)(巨)(额)(收)(益)(。
  高)(盛)(、摩)(根)(士)(丹)(利)(、花)(旗)(集)(团)(和)(摩)(根)(大)(通)(是)(当)(今)(世)(界)(4家)(参)(与)(石)(油)(期)(货)(的)(大)(玩)(家)(,而)(高)(盛)(又)(是)(这)(一)(轮)(石)(油)(价)(格)(战)(中)(的)(最)(大)(赢)(家)(。据)(当)(时)(的)(业)(内)(人)(士)(透)(露)(,摩)(根)(大)(通)(、高)(盛)(集)(团)(、巴)(克)(莱)(银)(行)(以)(及)(摩)(根)(士)(丹)(利)(控)(制)(了)(石)(油)(商)(品)(掉)(期)(交)(易)(头)(寸)(的)(约)(70%,这)(些)(投)(行)(进)(入)(掉)(期)(市)(场)(,通)(过)(与)(航)(空)(公)(司)(及)(对)(冲)(基)(金)(进)(行)(掉)(期)(交)(易)(,从)(油)(价)(波)(动)(中)(获)(取)(暴)(利)(,以)(弥)(补)(期)(货)(市)(场)(的)(损)(失)(。据)(统)(计)(分)(析)(,在)(石)(油)(价)(格)(大)(幅)(上)(涨)(的)(2008年)(上)(半)(年)(,指)(数)(基)(金)(规)(模)(从)(2003年)(的)(130亿)(美)(元)(猛)(增)(至)(2600亿)(美)(元)(,而)(到)(2008年)(9月)(,随)(着)(石)(油)(价)(格)(的)(大)(幅)(回)(落)(,指)(数)(基)(金)(规)(模)(下)(降)(至)(2230亿)(美)(元)(。
  高)(盛)(的)(贪)(婪)(是)(无)(止)(境)(的)(,就)(在)(油)(价)(升)(至)(147美)(元)(/桶)(出)(现)(下)(行)(拐)(点)(之)(前)(,高)(盛)(又)(公)(布)(了)(一)(份)(报)(告)(,最)(后)(一)(次)(推)(高)(油)(价)(。在)(报)(告)(中)(,高)(盛)(预)(测)(,中)(国)(对)(石)(油)(的)(需)(求)(将)(失)(控)(性)(地)(增)(长)(,使)(得)(价)(格)(突)(破)(200美)(元)(。这)(很)(明)(显)(就)(是)(圈)(内)(人)(做)(空)(石)(油)(的)(信)(号)(,其)(目)(的)(就)(是)(吸)(引)(“最)(后)(一)(棒)(”接)(收)(原)(油)(仓)(位)(。但)(不)(幸)(的)(是)(,还)(是)(有)(人)(听)(信)(了)(高)(盛)(最)(后)(的)(忽)(悠)(,在)(石)(油)(价)(格)(最)(高)(处)(,从)(他)(们)(手)(中)(接)(了)(最)(后)(一)(棒)(,替)(这)(些)(机)(构)(站)(岗)(。虽)(然)(油)(价)(还)(会)(回)(来)(,但)(是)(不)(知)(道)(他)(们)(还)(要)(等)(多)(久)(。
  据)(估)(计)(,2008年)(,石)(油)(期)(货)(市)(场)(新)(增)(净)(投)(资)(220亿)(美)(元)(,其)(中)(80亿)(美)(元)(是)(6月)(底)(以)(来)(的)(新)(投)(资)(。因)(此)(,期)(货)(价)(格)(上)(涨)(速)(度)(比)(现)(货)(价)(格)(更)(快)(。据)(统)(计)(,当)(年)(的)(7月)(底)(到)(8月)(初)(,对)(冲)(基)(金)(又)(开)(始)(在)(纽)(约)(商)(品)(交)(易)(所)(大)(量)(囤)(积)(能)(源)(期)(货)(合)(同)(,其)(手)(中)(“持)(多)(”的)(合)(同)(数)(量)(在)(短)(期)(内)(增)(加)(了)(1倍)(以)(上)(,一)(些)(原)(准)(备)(“抛)(空)(”的)(投)(机)(力)(量)(,也)(赶)(快)(加)(入)(囤)(积)(行)(列)(。
  全)(球)(经)(济)(重)(伤)(
  国)(际)(能)(源)(机)(构)(估)(算)(,如)(果)(油)(价)(上)(升)(10%,在)(其)(后)(的)(一)(年)(里)(世)(界)(经)(济)(增)(速)(将)(下)(降)(0.2到)(0.7个)(百)(分)(点)(。2008年)(,国)(际)(原)(油)(价)(格)(“过)(山)(车)(”表)(现)(令)(航)(空)(业)(伤)(元)(气)(,更)(严)(重)(的)(是)(,多)(个)(国)(家)(或)(地)(区)(爆)(发)(发)(油)(价)(上)(涨)(的)(游)(行)(示)(威)(活)(动)(
  华)(尔)(街)(赢)(了)(,全)(球)(实)(体)(经)(济)(又)(伤)(了)(。
  进)(入)(21世)(纪)(,在)(海)(湾)(局)(势)(不)(稳)(、美)(国)(反)(恐)(战)(争)(以)(及)(由)(于)(新)(兴)(市)(场)(国)(家)(经)(济)(快)(速)(增)(长)(对)(石)(油)(需)(求)(的)(拉)(动)(等)(多)(重)(因)(素)(影)(响)(下)(,原)(油)(价)(格)(呈)(现)(阶)(梯)(式)(上)(涨)(。
  整)(体)(上)(来)(看)(,21世)(纪)(头)(8年)(,石)(油)(价)(格)(的)(上)(涨)(可)(以)(分)(为)(4个)(阶)(段)(:第)(一)(阶)(段)(是)(从)(2002年)(1月)(的)(20美)(元)(/桶)(上)(涨)(至)(2005年)(9月)(的)(65美)(元)(/桶)(,这)(是)(一)(个)(持)(续)(上)(涨)(的)(阶)(段)(;第)(二)(个)(阶)(段)(是)(从)(2005年)(9月)(的)(65美)(元)(/桶)(到)(2007年)(1月)(的)(54美)(元)(/桶)(,这)(是)(一)(个)(区)(间)(震)(荡)(的)(阶)(段)(,呈)(现)(回)(落)(-上)(涨)(-再)(回)(落)(的)(走)(势)(;第)(三)(个)(阶)(段)(是)(从)(2007年)(1月)(的)(54美)(元)(/桶)(上)(涨)(至)(2008年)(7月)(的)(147美)(元)(/桶)(,除)(了)(中)(间)(有)(一)(两)(个)(月)(的)(微)(幅)(调)(整)(,基)(本)(呈)(现)(单)(边)(上)(扬)(的)(走)(势)(;第)(四)(个)(阶)(段)(是)(从)(2008年)(7月)(开)(始)(,原)(油)(价)(格)(从)(147美)(元)(/桶)(迅)(速)(回)(调)(到)(70美)(元)(/桶)(。
  在)(国)(际)(油)(价)(突)(破)(100美)(元)(之)(后)(,全)(球)(通)(胀)(也)(在)(逼)(近)(20年)(来)(的)(高)(点)(。美)(国)(总)(通)(胀)(率)(升)(至)(5%,欧)(洲)(通)(胀)(率)(突)(破)(3%,通)(胀)(率)(达)(到)(两)(位)(数)(的)(新)(兴)(经)(济)(体)(越)(来)(越)(多)(。尤)(其)(是)(一)(些)(货)(币)(与)(美)(元)(挂)(钩)(的)(新)(兴)(经)(济)(体)(和)(产)(油)(国)(的)(通)(胀)(问)(题)(更)(为)(突)(出)(,其)(中)(越)(南)(通)(胀)(率)(高)(达)(25%以)(上)(。
  高)(油)(价)(下)(,航)(空)(业)(所)(受)(打)(击)(最)(严)(重)(,小)(型)(廉)(价)(航)(空)(公)(司)(成)(为)(首)(当)(其)(冲)(的)(受)(害)(者)(。2008年)(上)(半)(年)(,国)(际)(廉)(价)(航)(空)(公)(司)(出)(现)(倒)(闭)(潮)(,先)(是)(三)(家)(美)(国)(小)(型)(廉)(价)(航)(空)(公)(司)(Skybus、Aloha和)(ATA相)(继)(宣)(布)(破)(产)(停)(业)(,随)(后)(,Frontier航)(空)(又)(成)(为)(第)(四)(家)(申)(请)(破)(产)(保)(护)(的)(廉)(价)(航)(空)(公)(司)(,而)(包)(租)(航)(空)(公)(司)(ChampionAir也)(宣)(称)(停)(飞)(。与)(此)(同)(时)(,香)(港)(甘)(泉)(航)(空)(业)(遭)(受)(重)(创)(,成)(为)(首)(家)(遭)(清)(盘)(的)(香)(港)(廉)(价)(航)(空)(公)(司)(。接)(着)(,大)(航)(空)(公)(司)(也)(不)(能)(幸)(免)(,2008年)(4月)(,美)(国)(第)(三)(大)(航)(空)(公)(司)(达)(美)(航)(空)(公)(司)(宣)(布)(与)(第)(五)(大)(的)(西)(北)(航)(空)(公)(司)(启)(动)(合)(并)(程)(序)(。
  高)(油)(价)(不)(仅)(中)(伤)(经)(济)(,还)(引)(起)(了)(社)(会)(动)(荡)(,政)(府)(不)(断)(遭)(遇)(攻)(击)(。2008年)(上)(半)(年)(,世)(界)(许)(多)(国)(家)(和)(地)(区)(都)(爆)(发)(了)(反)(对)(油)(价)(上)(涨)(的)(游)(行)(示)(威)(和)(罢)(工)(浪)(潮)(。在)(欧)(洲)(,法)(国)(、西)(班)(牙)(、意)(大)(利)(、希)(腊)(和)(马)(耳)(他)(的)(渔)(民)(工)(会)(通)(过)(封)(锁)(港)(口)(等)(抗)(议)(行)(动)(,逼)(迫)(政)(府)(加)(强)(补)(贴)(援)(助)(,一)(些)(渔)(民)(还)(封)(锁)(了)(附)(近)(的)(储)(油)(库)(和)(炼)(油)(厂)(;在)(亚)(洲)(,印)(尼)(也)(有)(民)(众)(不)(满)(油)(价)(上)(涨)(与)(警)(察)(发)(生)(冲)(突)(;马)(来)(西)(亚)(甚)(至)(禁)(止)(外)(国)(车)(在)(境)(内)(加)(油)(。最)(终)(东)(南)(亚)(多)(国)(政)(府)(实)(施)(了)(油)(价)(补)(贴)(措)(施)(,虽)(然)(缓)(解)(了)(社)(会)(压)(力)(,但)(却)(给)(政)(府)(背)(上)(了)(沉)(重)(的)(财)(政)(负)(担)(。
  当)(然)(了)(,在)(这)(场)(石)(油)(泡)(沫)(中)(,除)(了)(华)(尔)(街)(是)(赢)(家)(外)(,美)(国)(是)(另)(一)(个)(受)(益)(者)(。全)(球)(石)(油)(交)(易)(的)(80%是)(用)(美)(元)(结)(算)(的)(,因)(此)(美)(国)(的)(货)(币)(政)(策)(对)(全)(球)(石)(油)(价)(格)(影)(响)(很)(大)(。据)(欧)(佩)(克)(计)(算)(,美)(元)(每)(贬)(值)(1%,每)(桶)(石)(油)(就)(上)(涨)(4美)(元)(。美)(元)(贬)(值)(和)(石)(油)(价)(格)(上)(涨)(对)(于)(解)(决)(美)(国)(庞)(大)(的)(国)(家)(负)(债)(是)(有)(利)(的)(。通)(过)(采)(取)(美)(元)(贬)(值)(的)(办)(法)(,实)(际)(是)(缓)(解)(美)(国)(的)(对)(外)(债)(务)(。在)(高)(油)(价)(来)(临)(时)(,美)(国)(不)(仅)(没)(有)(减)(少)(石)(油)(的)(消)(耗)(,同)(时)(还)(提)(出)(增)(加)(国)(家)(战)(略)(石)(油)(储)(备)(,这)(客)(观)(上)(进)(一)(步)(推)(高)(了)(油)(价)(。此)(外)(,美)(国)(已)(经)(完)(成)(了)(产)(业)(结)(构)(升)(级)(,其)(经)(济)(对)(石)(油)(的)(依)(赖)(性)(已)(经)(大)(大)(降)(低)(,如)(果)(说)(当)(今)(世)(界)(哪)(个)(国)(家)(能)(扛)(得)(住)(高)(油)(价)(冲)(击)(,那)(就)(是)(美)(国)(。
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