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多个PMI回落表明中国经济增长势头放缓

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2018年10月19日 13:23:42
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(  新)(华)(网)(北)(京)(1月)(4日)(电)((记)(者)(林)(建)(杨)( 陈)(寂)()中)(国)(官)(方)(和)(汇)(丰)(银)(行)(近)(日)(公)(布)(的)(多)(个)(12月)(份)(制)(造)(业)(和)(非)(制)(造)(业)(采)(购)(经)(理)(指)(数)((PMI),都)(较)(2013年)(11月)(回)(落)(,有)(的)(下)(降)(至)(4个)(月)(内)(低)(值)(。经)(济)(学)(家)(认)(为)(,数)(据)(表)(明)(自)(去)(年)(下)(半)(年)(开)(始)(的)(中)(国)(经)(济)(复)(苏)(增)(长)(势)(头)(,于)(12月)(份)(开)(始)(有)(所)(放)(缓)(。  3日)(,国)(家)(统)(计)(局)(服)(务)(业)(调)(查)(中)(心)(、中)(国)(物)(流)(与)(采)(购)(联)(合)(会)(公)(布)(,12月)(份)(中)(国)(非)(制)(造)(业)(PMI为)(54.6%,比)(前)(一)(个)(月)(回)(落)(1.4个)(百)(分)(点)(。这)(是)(连)(续)(第)(二)(个)(月)(下)(滑)(,也)(是)(该)(指)(数)(过)(去)(四)(个)(月)(里)(的)(最)(低)(水)(平)(。  其)(中)(,房)(屋)(建)(筑)(业)(商)(务)(活)(动)(指)(数)(回)(落)(至)(50%临)(界)(点)(,新)(订)(单)(指)(数)(回)(落)(至)(50%以)(下)(,回)(落)(幅)(度)(均)(较)(为)(明)(显)(。中)(国)(物)(流)(与)(采)(购)(联)(合)(会)(副)(会)(长)(蔡)(进)(认)(为)(,指)(数)(下)(滑)(主)(因)(是)(生)(产)(性)(服)(务)(业)(和)(房)(屋)(建)(筑)(业)(回)(落)(。  1日)(,国)(家)(统)(计)(局)(服)(务)(业)(调)(查)(中)(心)(和)(中)(国)(物)(流)(与)(采)(购)(联)(合)(会)(发)(布)(的)(去)(年)(12月)(份)(中)(国)(制)(造)(业)(PMI报)(51%,环)(比)(下)(降)(0.4个)(百)(分)(点)(。这)(是)(去)(年)(8月)(以)(来)(的)(最)(低)(值)(,也)(低)(于)(市)(场)(普)(遍)(预)(期)(的)(51.2%。  其)(中)(,去)(年)(12月)(份)(中)(国)(制)(造)(业)(新)(出)(口)(订)(单)(指)(数)(和)(进)(口)(指)(数)(双)(双)(回)(落)(,分)(别)(为)(49.8%和)(49.0%,均)(降)(至)(枯)(荣)(分)(水)(岭)(以)(下)(。  2日)(,汇)(丰)(银)(行)(公)(布)(的)(中)(国)(制)(造)(业)(PMI回)(落)(至)(50.5,为)(三)(个)(月)(内)(最)(低)(值)(。汇)(丰)(中)(国)(区)(首)(席)(经)(济)(学)(家)(屈)(宏)(斌)(说)(,PMI回)(落)(的)(原)(因)(是)(冬)(季)(基)(建)(活)(动)(放)(缓)(、外)(需)(订)(单)(季)(节)(性)(回)(落)(,以)(及)(企)(业)(补)(库)(存)(活)(动)(的)(放)(缓)(。  美)(银)(美)(林)(中)(国)(区)(经)(济)(学)(家)(陆)(挺)(和)(治)(晓)(佳)(认)(为)(,去)(年)(12月)(中)(国)(官)(方)(制)(造)(业)(PMI出)(现)(6个)(月)(来)(首)(次)(回)(落)(,意)(味)(着)(中)(国)(经)(济)(自)(2013年)(7月)(起)(开)(始)(的)(增)(长)(复)(苏)(可)(能)(已)(经)(出)(现)(放)(缓)(,失)(去)(少)(许)(动)(力)(。  陆)(挺)(和)(治)(晓)(佳)(预)(测)(,中)(国)(经)(济)(按)(季)(增)(长)(速)(度)(有)(可)(能)(从)(第)(三)(季)(度)(的)(2.2%,降)(至)(第)(四)(季)(度)(的)(大)(约)(2%,2014年)(有)(可)(能)(进)(一)(步)(回)(落)(至)(1.7%至)(1.8%。不)(过)(他)(们)(认)(为)(,由)(于)(对)(比)(基)(数)(较)(小)(,去)(年)(第)(四)(季)(度)(中)(国)(经)(济)(按)(年)(有)(望)(增)(长)(7.8%,今)(年)(前)(两)(个)(季)(度)(增)(速)(有)(望)(进)(一)(步)(提)(升)(至)(8%。  关)(于)(12月)(份)(的)(关)(键)(经)(济)(指)(标)(,陆)(挺)(和)(治)(晓)(佳)(预)(计)(12月)(份)(工)(业)(增)(加)(值)(同)(比)(增)(长)(9.8%,整)(个)(第)(四)(季)(度)(有)(望)(同)(比)(增)(长)(10%,较)(第)(三)(季)(度)(下)(降)(0.1个)(百)(分)(点)(。12月)(份)(的)(固)(定)(资)(产)(投)(资)(有)(望)(同)(比)(增)(长)(19.8%,社)(会)(消)(费)(品)(零)(售)(总)(额)(有)(望)(增)(长)(13.5%,较)(11月)(份)(下)(降)(0.2个)(百)(分)(点)(。  瑞)(银)(证)(券)(中)(国)(首)(席)(经)(济)(学)(家)(汪)(涛)(也)(表)(示)(,本)(月)(稍)(后)(公)(布)(的)(去)(年)(12月)(份)(宏)(观)(数)(据)(将)(证)(明)(中)(国)(经)(济)(增)(长)(的)(势)(头)(有)(所)(放)(缓)(。她)(预)(测)(,除)(了)(工)(业)(增)(加)(值)(、出)(口)(、固)(定)(资)(产)(投)(资)(等)(关)(键)(指)(标)(将)(出)(现)(回)(落)(外)(,四)(季)(度)(中)(国)(经)(济)(增)(速)(将)(从)(第)(三)(季)(度)(的)(7.8%下)(降)(至)(7.6%。  野)(村)(证)(券)(中)(国)(首)(席)(经)(济)(学)(家)(张)(智)(威)(认)(为)(,12月)(份)(官)(方)(制)(造)(业)(PMI数)(值)(低)(于)(市)(场)(预)(期)(,其)(下)(降)(表)(明)(中)(国)(经)(济)(增)(长)(势)(头)(在)(去)(年)(第)(三)(季)(度)(达)(到)(顶)(点)(后)(,开)(始)(有)(所)(放)(缓)(。他)(预)(测)(第)(四)(季)(度)(中)(国)(经)(济)(增)(速)(将)(放)(缓)(至)(7.6%,并)(于)(今)(年)(第)(一)(、二)(季)(度)(进)(一)(步)(回)(落)(至)(7.5%和)(7.1%。  虽)(然)(中)(国)(经)(济)(增)(长)(势)(头)(在)(2013年)(年)(终)(有)(所)(放)(缓)(,但)(汪)(涛)(认)(为)(这)(不)(足)(以)(让)(中)(国)(政)(府)(改)(变)(现)(行)(的)(经)(济)(政)(策)(。她)(说)(,“如)(果)(不)(出)(意)(外)(,12月)(份)(的)(经)(济)(数)(据)(将)(难)(以)(影)(响)(中)(国)(目)(前)(的)(政)(策)(方)(向)(。在)(此)(背)(景)(下)(,我)(们)(预)(测)(2014年)(中)(国)(经)(济)(有)(望)(增)(长)(7.8%。”  陆)(挺)(和)(治)(晓)(佳)(也)(认)(为)(,鉴)(于)(通)(胀)(缓)(和)(且)(GDP增)(速)(与)(中)(国)(经)(济)(潜)(能)(一)(致)(,中)(国)(将)(在)(未)(来)(数)(个)(季)(度)(内)(继)(续)(执)(行)(现)(行)(的)(货)(币)(和)(财)(政)(政)(策)(,同)(时)(加)(大)(结)(构)(调)(整)(的)(力)(度)(。  屈)(宏)(斌)(则)(表)(示)(,虽)(然)(去)(年)(12月)(份)(制)(造)(业)(PMI略)(微)(回)(调)(,但)(仍)(然)(连)(续)(五)(个)(月)(高)(于)(50的)(枯)(荣)(分)(水)(岭)(,同)(时)(新)(订)(单)(仍)(保)(持)(稳)(步)(增)(长)(。他)(说)(,“我)(们)(认)(为)(去)(年)(8月)(份)(以)(来)(的)(温)(和)(回)(升)(势)(头)(将)(在)(2014年)(得)(以)(延)(续)(。鉴)(于)(通)(胀)(仍)(然)(温)(和)(,我)(们)(预)(计)(决)(策)(层)(将)(保)(持)(当)(前)(的)(货)(币)(和)(财)(政)(政)(策)(,以)(支)(持)(经)(济)(增)(长)(。”  作)(者)(:林)(建)(杨)( 陈)(寂)(
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