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火电装机增速远大于用电增速

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2018年12月10日 03:24:51
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(  火)(电)(装)(机)(增)(速)(远)(大)(于)(用)(电)(增)(速)(
  专)(家)(称)(三)(年)(一)(个)(不)(建)(都)(没)(问)(题)(
  ■本)(报)(记)(者)(李)(春)(莲)(
  火)(电)(大)(跃)(进)(的)(后)(果)(正)(在)(向)(电)(企)(袭)(来)(。
  近)(日)(,发)(改)(委)(和)(能)(源)(局)(连)(发)(三)(文)(件)(严)(控)(煤)(电)(产)(能)(过)(剩)(。如)(果)(再)(继)(续)(下)(去)(,今)(日)(的)(钢)(铁)(和)(煤)(炭)(,就)(是)(未)(来)(的)(煤)(电)(。
  这)(几)(年)(,煤)(价)(不)(断)(走)(低)(,电)(企)(有)(利)(可)(图)(,不)(断)(上)(马)(新)(机)(组)(。而)(同)(时)(,用)(电)(需)(求)(却)(不)(断)(放)(缓)(,去)(年)(用)(电)(增)(速)(更)(是)(创)(1974年)(以)(来)(年)(度)(新)(低)(,这)(让)(电)(力)(过)(剩)(的)(困)(局)(更)(加)(突)(出)(。
  正)(如)(有)(专)(家)(所)(言)(:近)(三)(年)(,一)(个)(火)(电)(项)(目)(不)(建)(都)(没)(有)(问)(题)(。
  分)(析)(师)(认)(为)(,希)(望)(这)(三)(份)(文)(件)(能)(够)(给)(煤)(电)(建)(设)(踩)(下)(急)(刹)(车)(,电)(企)(如)(果)(只)(顾)(眼)(前)(的)(利)(益)(,继)(续)(扩)(张)(,最)(终)(也)(只)(能)(自)(己)(“买)(单)(”。
  三)(文)(件)(剑)(指)(煤)(电)(过)(剩)(困)(局)(
  近)(日)(,《证)(券)(日)(报)(》记)(者)(了)(解)(到)(,发)(改)(委)(、能)(源)(局)(下)(发)(的)(《关)(于)(进)(一)(步)(做)(好)(煤)(电)(行)(业)(淘)(汰)(落)(后)(产)(能)(的)(通)(知)(》、《关)(于)(促)(进)(我)(国)(煤)(电)(有)(序)(发)(展)(的)(通)(知)(》、《关)(于)(建)(立)(煤)(电)(规)(划)(建)(设)(风)(险)(预)(警)(机)(制)(暨)(发)(布)(2019年)(煤)(电)(规)(划)(建)(设)(风)(险)(预)(警)(的)(通)(知)(》三)(份)(文)(件)(。
  这)(三)(份)(文)(件)(的)(发)(布)(,标)(志)(着)(能)(源)(局)(打)(出)(严)(控)(煤)(电)(行)(业)(产)(能)(组)(合)(拳)(,以)(保)(障)(我)(国)(煤)(电)(有)(序)(发)(展)(。
  国)(家)(能)(源)(局)(局)(长)(努)(尔)(·白)(克)(力)(在)(会)(上)(指)(出)(,近)(年)(来)(我)(国)(煤)(电)(装)(机)(规)(模)(快)(速)(增)(加)(,煤)(电)(产)(能)(过)(剩)(潜)(在)(风)(险)(逐)(步)(显)(现)(。预)(计)(今)(年)(新)(增)(装)(机)(规)(模)(将)(超)(五)(千)(万)(千)(瓦)(。如)(果)(按)(这)(样)(的)(发)(展)(态)(势)(,未)(来)(几)(年)(,我)(国)(煤)(电)(行)(业)(将)(会)(变)(成)(现)(在)(的)(钢)(铁)(和)(煤)(炭)(行)(业)(。
  根)(据)(上)(述)(文)(件)(,将)(取)(消)(一)(批)(不)(具)(备)(核)(准)(条)(件)(的)(煤)(电)(项)(目)(。缓)(核)(一)(批)(电)(力)(盈)(余)(省)(份)(煤)(电)(项)(目)(。黑)(龙)(江)(、山)(东)(、山)(西)(、内)(蒙)(古)(等)(13省)((区)()2017年)(前)((含)(2017年)()应)(暂)(缓)(核)(准)(除)(民)(生)(热)(电)(外)(的)(自)(用)(煤)(电)(项)(目)((不)(含)(国)(家)(确)(定)(的)(示)(范)(项)(目)();缓)(建)(一)(批)(电)(力)(盈)(余)(省)(份)(煤)(电)(项)(目)(。黑)(龙)(江)(、辽)(宁)(、山)(东)(等)(等)(15省)((区)(),除)(民)(生)(热)(电)(项)(目)(外)(的)(自)(用)(煤)(电)(项)(目)(,尚)(未)(开)(工)(建)(设)(的)(,2017年)(前)(应)(暂)(缓)(开)(工)(建)(设)(。
  此)(外)(,更)(为)(夸)(张)(的)(是)(,2019年)(煤)(电)(规)(划)(建)(设)(风)(险)(预)(警)(中)(,有)(27个)(省)(预)(警)(结)(果)(为)(红)(色)(,这)(表)(示)(存)(在)(电)(力)(冗)(余)(或)(政)(策)(不)(允)(许)(新)(建)(煤)(电)(项)(目)(,建)(议)(地)(方)(政)(府)(暂)(缓)(核)(准)(煤)(电)(项)(目)(,企)(业)(慎)(重)(决)(策)(项)(目)(开)(工)(。
  不)(难)(发)(现)(,我)(国)(煤)(电)(过)(剩)(的)(程)(度)(可)(谓)(严)(重)(。
  正)(如)(国)(家)(发)(改)(委)(能)(源)(研)(究)(所)(研)(究)(员)(周)(大)(地)(所)(说)(,一)(边)(是)(煤)(电)(机)(组)(发)(不)(了)(,一)(边)(却)(还)(在)(争)(取)(再)(上)(大)(煤)(电)(,在)(这)(种)(状)(况)(下)(将)(造)(成)(经)(济)(浪)(费)(、投)(资)(浪)(费)(。应)(尽)(快)(停)(建)(、缓)(建)(火)(电)(,特)(别)(是)(近)(三)(年)(,可)(以)(说)(一)(个)((火)(电)(项)(目)()不)(建)(都)(没)(有)(问)(题)(,大)(家)(日)(子)(过)(得)(更)(好)(。
  卓)(创)(资)(讯)(分)(析)(师)(耿)(珍)(向)(《证)(券)(日)(报)(》记)(者)(表)(示)(,近)(期)(煤)(炭)(、钢)(铁)(业)(作)(为)(改)(革)(的)(首)(批)(重)(点)(领)(域)(,去)(产)(能)(正)(式)(迈)(入)(“快)(车)(道)(”。但)(不)(可)(忽)(视)(的)(是)(,随)(着)(近)(年)(来)(煤)(电)(装)(机)(规)(模)(快)(速)(增)(加)(,煤)(电)(产)(能)(过)(剩)(潜)(在)(风)(险)(逐)(步)(显)(现)(。随)(着)(上)(述)(三)(份)(文)(件)(的)(发)(布)(,我)(国)(煤)(电)(行)(业)(建)(设)(也)(将)(踩)(下)(急)(刹)(车)(。
  电)(企)(争)(利)(上)(演)(火)(电)(大)(跃)(进)(
  实)(际)(上)(,煤)(电)(过)(剩)(的)(问)(题)(早)(就)(引)(起)(业)(内)(的)(关)(注)(。
  去)(年)(11月)(18日)(,华)(北)(电)(力)(大)(学)(经)(济)(与)(管)(理)(学)(院)(联)(合)(发)(布)(《中)(国)(煤)(电)(产)(能)(过)(剩)(及)(投)(资)(泡)(沫)(研)(究)(》并)(指)(出)(,以)(煤)(电)(为)(主)(的)(火)(电)(项)(目)(大)(跃)(进)(式)(增)(长)(,将)(在)(“十)(三)(五)(”期)(间)(造)(成)(超)(过)(2亿)(千)(瓦)(的)(装)(机)(过)(剩)(和)(7000亿)(元)(投)(资)(成)(本)(浪)(费)(。
  有)(晋)(煤)(人)(士)(向)(《证)(券)(日)(报)(》记)(者)(表)(示)(,现)(在)(煤)(炭)(过)(剩)(搞)(煤)(电)(一)(体)(化)(,但)(是)(很)(多)(电)(厂)(机)(组)(也)(过)(剩)(,有)(多)(半)(机)(组)(都)(是)(闲)(置)(的)(。
  同)(时)(,还)(有)(东)(北)(电)(企)(人)(士)(还)(告)(诉)(《证)(券)(日)(报)(》记)(者)(,整)(个)(东)(北)(火)(电)(过)(剩)(的)(情)(况)(十)(分)(严)(重)(。经)(济)(增)(速)(放)(缓)(,仅)(在)(东)(北)(地)(区)(,电)(力)(消)(化)(能)(力)(有)(限)(,“窝)(电)(”现)(象)(十)(分)(严)(重)(,公)(司)(在)(积)(极)(实)(施)(“走)(出)(去)(”战)(略)(。
  但)(由)(于)(这)(两)(年)(煤)(价)(一)(直)(走)(低)(,火)(电)(有)(利)(可)(图)(,电)(企)(之)(间)(互)(不)(示)(弱)(,争)(相)(上)(马)(新)(机)(组)(占)(领)(市)(场)(。一)(直)(到)(去)(年)(,火)(电)(建)(设)(仍)(旧)(在)(扩)(张)(。
  据)(不)(完)(全)(统)(计)(,单)(2015年)(环)(评)(受)(理)(、环)(评)(拟)(审)(批)(及)(环)(评)(审)(批)(的)(煤)(电)(项)(目)(,其)(规)(模)(就)(达)(到)(了)(1.23亿)(千)(瓦)(。这)(一)(数)(字)(已)(经)(接)(近)(2012年)(-2014年)(煤)(电)(环)(评)(批)(复)(煤)(电)(项)(目)(总)(量)(的)(近)(八)(成)((不)(包)(括)(热)(电)(联)(产)(项)(目)()。
  此)(外)(,火)(电)(新)(增)(装)(机)(规)(模)(大)(,投)(资)(额)(也)(独)(占)(鳌)(头)(。2015年)(火)(电)(完)(成)(投)(资)(1396亿)(元)(,增)(长)(22%。而)(水)(电)(只)(有)(782亿)(元)(,下)(降)(17%。
  而)(与)(此)(同)(时)(,与)(电)(企)(的)(投)(资)(热)(情)(相)(比)(,装)(机)(增)(速)(远)(远)(大)(于)(需)(求)(增)(速)(。“十)(二)(五)(”前)(四)(年)(用)(电)(量)(平)(均)(增)(长)(7.3%,2015年)(用)(电)(增)(速)(创)(1974年)(以)(来)(年)(度)(新)(低)(。
  上)(述)(电)(企)(人)(士)(还)(指)(出)(,火)(电)(机)(组)(回)(报)(率)(高)(,电)(企)(投)(资)(热)(情)(很)(高)(并)(不)(奇)(怪)(,也)(对)(拉)(动)(当)(地)(GDP作)(出)(了)(不)(小)(的)(贡)(献)(。因)(此)(,目)(前)(除)(了)(“上)(大)(压)(小)(”这)(种)(形)(式)(,各)(地)(方)(淘)(汰)(火)(电)(机)(组)(产)(能)(的)(动)(力)(不)(足)(、积)(极)(性)(并)(不)(高)(。
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