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完善房地产金融链条(图)

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2018年12月11日 06:27:01
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(城)(市)(中)(,新)(建)(商)(品)(住)(宅)((不)(含)(保)(障)(性)(住)(房)()价)(格)(下)(降)(的)(城)(市)(有)(68个)(,仅)(有)(温)(州)(持)(平)(、厦)(门)(上)(涨)(。种)(种)(迹)(象)(表)(明)(,中)(国)(房)(地)(产)(市)(场)(仍)(在)(进)(一)(步)(下)(探)(和)(调)(整)(。同)(时)(,从)(8月)(份)(部)(分)(城)(市)(取)(消)(限)(购)(,到)(近)(期)(首)(套)(房)(贷)(再)(现)(松)(动)(迹)(象)(,人)(们)(对)(于)(房)(地)(产)(政)(策)(的)(放)(松)(充)(满)(期)(待)(。  当)(前)(,中)(国)(经)(济)(面)(临)(经)(济)(增)(速)(下)(行)(和)(结)(构)(性)(转)(型)(压)(力)(。根)(据)(中)(国)(金)(融)(四)(十)(人)(论)(坛)(内)(部)(课)(题)(“中)(国)(金)(融)(系)(统)(性)(风)(险)(与)(宏)(观)(审)(慎)(监)(管)(”研)(究)(成)(果)(,房)(地)(产)(行)(业)(是)(社)(会)(经)(济)(发)(展)(的)(支)(柱)(行)(业)(,与)(银)(行)(、影)(子)(银)(行)(和)(土)(地)(财)(政)(等)(诸)(多)(领)(域)(相)(关)(联)(,房)(地)(产)(市)(场)(下)(行)(很)(可)(能)(成)(为)(金)(融)(系)(统)(性)(风)(险)(的)(触)(发)(点)(。  在)(近)(期)(召)(开)(的)(中)(国)(金)(融)(四)(十)(人)(论)(坛)(内)(部)(研)(讨)(会)(上)(,与)(会)(嘉)(宾)(围)(绕)(以)(上)(问)(题)(进)(行)(了)(深)(入)(的)(讨)(论)(。经)(作)(者)(审)(核)(和)(主)(办)(方)(同)(意)(,《21世)(纪)(经)(济)(报)(道)(》本)(期)(刊)(登)(华)(远)(地)(产)(董)(事)(长)(任)(志)(强)(的)(主)(题)(演)(讲)(,以)(及)(全)(国)(工)(商)(联)(房)(地)(产)(商)(会)(创)(会)(会)(长)(聂)(梅)(生)(的)(点)(评)(发)(言)(,以)(飨)(读)(者)(。(马)(冬)(冬)()  中)(国)(金)(融)(四)(十)(人)(论)(坛)(特)(邀)(嘉)(宾)(聂)(梅)(生)(  我)(认)(为)(房)(地)(产)(最)(危)(险)(的)(时)(候)(已)(经)(过)(去)(了)(。今)(年)(两)(会)(前)(后)(比)(较)(危)(险)(,那)(时)(候)(房)(地)(产)(各)(项)(指)(标)(出)(现)(了)(跳)(崖)(式)(下)(降)(。但)(当)(时)(大)(家)(都)(没)(看)(清)(形)(势)(,所)(以)(也)(没)(有)(出)(台)(相)(关)(政)(策)(。现)(在)(从)(增)(速)(下)(降)(发)(展)(到)(了)(负)(增)(长)(,但)(是)(负)(增)(长)(区)(开)(始)(稳)(定)(,预)(计)(四)(季)(度)(会)(平)(缓)(下)(来)(。  限)(制)(政)(策)(应)(及)(时)(放)(松)(  我)(认)(为)(,如)(果)(早)(一)(个)(季)(度)(解)(除)(限)(购)(,房)(地)(产)(形)(势)(会)(好)(得)(多)(。因)(为)(限)(购)(、限)(贷)(、限)(售)(、限)(价)(这)(“四)(限)(”政)(策)(是)(在)(房)(价)(急)(剧)(增)(长)(时)(期)(出)(台)(的)(,不)(适)(用)(于)(当)(前)(房)(地)(产)(和)(经)(济)(下)(行)(时)(期)(。  如)(果)(一)(季)(度)(没)(有)(过)(紧)(收)(缩)(房)(地)(产)(信)(贷)(,整)(个)(房)(地)(产)(市)(场)(就)(不)(会)(出)(现)(跳)(崖)(式)(下)(行)(。对)(刚)(需)(部)(分)(来)(说)(,不)(仅)(没)(有)(恢)(复)(到)(正)(常)(中)(性)(的)(利)(率)(水)(平)(,反)(而)(上)(浮)(了)(抵)(押)(贷)(款)(利)(率)(。所)(以)(从)(数)(据)(可)(以)(看)(出)(,个)(人)(抵)(押)(贷)(款)(增)(速)(下)(降)(太)(快)(,开)(发)(商)(资)(金)(回)(笼)(慢)(,造)(成)(了)(很)(多)(问)(题)(。除)(自)(住)(需)(求)(外)(,改)(善)(性)(需)(求)(也)(不)(应)(该)(被)(打)(压)(。  我)(认)(为)(房)(地)(产)(市)(场)(很)(可)(能)(会)(持)(续)(负)(增)(长)(一)(段)(时)(期)(,即)(房)(价)(和)(销)(售)(额)(、销)(售)(量)(继)(续)(负)(增)(长)(。但)(随)(着)(调)(控)(政)(策)(的)(逐)(渐)(放)(松)(,房)(价)(会)(回)(到)(接)(近)(于)(零)(增)(长)(,或)(稍)(好)(一)(点)(的)(局)(面)(。从)(长)(期)(来)(看)(,考)(虑)(城)(镇)(化)(、人)(口)(流)(动)(、需)(求)(和)(房)(屋)(折)(旧)(等)(因)(素)(,未)(来)(十)(年)(至)(十)(五)(年)(,房)(地)(产)(业)(仍)(将)(有)(足)(够)(需)(求)(。  房)(市)(持)(续)(低)(迷)(对)(经)(济)(形)(成)(负)(拉)(动)(  在)(经)(济)(换)(挡)(期)(,房)(地)(产)(能)(起)(到)(稳)(定)(经)(济)(的)(作)(用)(。但)(现)(在)(,从)(各)(项)(数)(据)(来)(看)(,房)(地)(产)(对)(经)(济)(形)(成)(的)(是)(负)(拉)(动)(影)(响)(。  固)(定)(资)(产)(投)(资)(同)(比)(增)(速)(从)(1-7月)(的)(17.0%下)(降)(至)(1-8月)(的)(16.5%,为)(13年)(来)(最)(低)(。一)(般)(认)(为)(,房)(地)(产)(投)(资)(增)(速)(下)(降)(至)(18%,经)(济)(就)(会)(出)(问)(题)(,但)(现)(在)(已)(经)(下)(降)(到)(13.2%,对)(经)(济)(负)(拉)(动)(作)(用)(太)(大)(。房)(价)(的)(双)(控)(指)(标)(是)(,增)(速)(不)(能)(高)(于)(GDP增)(速)(,不)(能)(高)(于)(人)(均)(收)(入)(增)(速)(。最)(近)(,华)(尔)(街)(日)(报)(的)(数)(据)(显)(示)(,7月)(份)(中)(国)(70个)(城)(市)(房)(价)(同)(比)(增)(长)(2.43%,显)(然)(比)(GDP增)(速)(慢)(多)(了)(,且)(从)(8月)(份)(环)(比)(数)(据)(来)(看)(,十)(大)(城)(市)(房)(价)(增)(长)(全)(部)(为)(负)(。所)(以)(我)(觉)(得)(房)(价)(下)(跌)(需)(要)(引)(起)(关)(注)(,要)(对)(经)(济)(低)(迷)(期)(做)(好)(准)(备)(,经)(济)(下)(行)(加)(剧)(了)(房)(地)(产)(市)(场)(下)(行)(,房)(地)(产)(价)(格)(下)(行)(反)(过)(来)(又)(加)(剧)(了)(经)(济)(下)(行)(。现)(在)(开)(发)(商)(资)(金)(紧)(张)(,未)(来)(投)(资)(肯)(定)(会)(下)(降)(,所)(以)(明)(年)(楼)(市)(也)(会)(继)(续)(低)(迷)(。  房)(地)(产)(金)(融)(链)(条)(需)(要)(更)(多)(工)(具)(  我)(的)(判)(断)(是)(,房)(价)(不)(会)(崩)(盘)(,经)(济)(也)(不)(会)(硬)(着)(陆)(。但)(是)(中)(国)(房)(地)(产)(问)(题)(的)(根)(源)(在)(于)(:土)(地)(和)(金)(融)(。  国)(家)(统)(计)(局)(数)(据)(显)(示)(,截)(至)(2013年)(底)(,84个)(重)(点)(城)(市)(处)(于)(抵)(押)(状)(态)(的)(土)(地)(面)(积)(为)(40.39万)(公)(顷)(,抵)(押)(贷)(款)(总)(额)(7.76万)(亿)(元)(,这)(7.76万)(亿)(的)(土)(地)(贷)(款)(实)(际)(上)(形)(成)(了)(土)(地)(金)(融)(。开)(发)(商)(买)(到)(土)(地)(后)(,马)(上)(到)(银)(行)(抵)(押)(,形)(成)(了)(银)(行)(7.76万)(亿)(的)(抵)(押)(贷)(款)(余)(额)(,而)(且)(这)(仅)(仅)(是)(84个)(城)(市)(的)(量)(,全)(国)(一)(共)(有)(600多)(个)(城)(市)(,这)(个)(问)(题)(不)(容)(小)(觑)(。  现)(在)(房)(地)(产)(市)(场)(想)(要)(走)(出)(困)(境)(,不)(能)(仅)(依)(靠)(改)(变)(贷)(款)(政)(策)(,其)(实)(中)(国)(在)(整)(个)(房)(地)(产)(金)(融)(产)(业)(链)(上)(缺)(少)(工)(具)(。美)(国)(的)(房)(地)(产)(项)(目)(从)(一)(开)(始)(就)(有)(各)(种)(不)(同)(的)(金)(融)(产)(品)(,开)(发)(商)(的)(自)(有)(资)(金)(只)(占)(5-10%,而)(中)(国)(的)(要)(求)(是)(35%甚)(至)(40%;美)(国)(的)(房)(地)(产)(在)(开)(发)(中)(期)(有)(开)(发)(贷)(款)(、个)(人)(抵)(押)(贷)(款)(;在)(房)(地)(产)(商)(退)(出)(时)(有)(房)(地)(产)(投)(资)(信)(托)(基)(金)((RealEstateInvestmentTrust,REITs)、资)(产)(证)(券)(化)(等)(工)(具)(。中)(国)(的)(房)(地)(产)(业)(在)(整)(个)(金)(融)(链)(上)(只)(有)(个)(人)(贷)(款)(和)(开)(发)(贷)(,这)(是)(远)(远)(不)(够)(的)(。  (作)(者)(系)(全)(国)(工)(商)(联)(房)(地)(产)(商)(会)(创)(会)(会)(长)(。本)(文)(为)(作)(者)(在)(9月)(14日)(中)(国)(金)(融)(四)(十)(人)(论)(坛)(第)(104期)(双)(周)(内)(部)(研)(讨)(会)(上)(的)(点)(评)(发)(言)(,由)(中)(国)(金)(融)(四)(十)(人)(论)(坛)(秘)(书)(处)(整)(理)(,经)(作)(者)(审)(核)(。)点)(击)(进)(入)(【股)(友)(会)(】参)(与)(讨)(论)(
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