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跌宕起伏预判不一,英国脱欧“凛冬将至”还是“曙光初现”?

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2018年12月12日 22:52:49
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(原)(标)(题)(:跌)(宕)(起)(伏)(预)(判)(不)(一)(,英)(国)(脱)(欧)(“凛)(冬)(将)(至)(”还)(是)(“曙)(光)(初)(现)(”?
即)(使)(当)(前)(脱)(欧)(协)(议)(久)(拖)(未)(决)(,但)(市)(场)(仍)(然)(普)(遍)(预)(期)(无)(论)(多)(么)(艰)(难)(,英)(欧)(之)(间)(仍)(然)(有)(可)(能)(达)(成)(某)(种)(形)(式)(的)(协)(定)(。市)(场)(更)(多)(担)(心)(未)(来)(英)(国)(政)(府)(如)(何)(获)(得)(英)(国)(议)(会)(的)(支)(持)(,这)(将)(对)(脱)(欧)(前)(景)(造)(成)(更)(大)(的)(威)(胁)(和)(冲)(击)(。
9月)(份)(以)(来)(,英)(国)(脱)(欧)(进)(展)(“跌)(宕)(起)(伏)(”。一)(时)(间)(,各)(方)(对)(于)(脱)(欧)(前)(景)(出)(现)(了)(不)(同)(预)(判)(。有)(乐)(观)(分)(析)(认)(为)(,欧)(盟)(让)(步)(意)(味)(着)(曙)(光)(显)(现)(、有)(序)(脱)(欧)(在)(望)(;但)(更)(多)(的)(分)(析)(认)(为)(,在)(不)(足)(200天)(内)(解)(决)(如)(此)(多)(的)(问)(题)(,难)(度)(太)(大)(,谈)(判)(进)(程)(“凛)(冬)(将)(至)(”。
9月)(10日)(,欧)(盟)(脱)(欧)(谈)(判)(首)(席)(代)(表)(巴)(尼)(耶)(出)(人)(意)(料)(地)(表)(示)(,有)(望)(在)(未)(来)(数)(周)(内)(与)(英)(国)(达)(成)(脱)(欧)(协)(议)(。这)(一)(表)(态)(也)(得)(到)(了)(爱)(尔)(兰)(总)(理)(瓦)(拉)(德)(卡)(的)(支)(持)(。再)(加)(上)(同)(日)(英)(国)(央)(行)(行)(长)(卡)(尼)(宣)(布)(任)(期)(延)(长)(至)(2020年)(,市)(场)(一)(时)(间)(似)(乎)(看)(到)(了)(顺)(利)(稳)(步)(脱)(欧)(的)(希)(望)(。
然)(而)(,两)(天)(之)(后)(英)(国)(保)(守)(党)(内)(部)(“宫)(斗)(戏)(”被)(媒)(体)(曝)(光)(。据)(称)(,多)(名)(英)(国)(保)(守)(党)(议)(员)(在)(11日)(晚)(上)(召)(开)(会)(议)(,公)(开)(讨)(论)(特)(雷)(莎)(·梅)(作)(为)(英)(国)(领)(导)(人)(的)(前)(途)(问)(题)(,这)(些)(议)(员)(都)(来)(自)(保)(守)(党)(的)(反)(欧)(盟)(组)(织)(——欧)(洲)(研)(究)(集)(团)(。牵)(头)(此)(次)(活)(动)(的)(是)(保)(守)(党)(内)(强)(硬)(脱)(欧)(派)(领)(军)(人)(物)(雅)(克)(布)(·里)(斯)(·莫)(格)(。在)(此)(次)(会)(议)(上)(,多)(名)(议)(员)(表)(示)(已)(经)(向)(保)(守)(党)(后)(排)(议)(员)(组)(织)(——1922委)(员)(会)(主)(席)(格)(拉)(汉)(姆)(·布)(莱)(迪)(爵)(士)(提)(交)(了)(对)(于)(英)(国)(首)(相)(特)(雷)(莎)(·梅)(的)(不)(信)(任)(信)(件)(。同)(时)(,多)(位)(尚)(未)(提)(交)(信)(件)(的)(保)(守)(党)(议)(员)(表)(示)(将)(会)(跟)(随)(提)(交)(信)(件)(。
根)(据)(保)(守)(党)(内)(部)(规)(定)(,如)(果)(1922委)(员)(会)(主)(席)(收)(到)(15%保)(守)(党)(议)(员)(要)(求)(举)(行)(不)(信)(任)(投)(票)(的)(信)(件)(,可)(以)(提)(出)(不)(信)(任)(动)(议)(,对)(特)(雷)(莎)(·梅)(的)(领)(导)(地)(位)(形)(成)(直)(接)(威)(胁)(。虽)(然)(当)(前)(尚)(不)(清)(楚)(已)(经)(和)(准)(备)(提)(交)(信)(件)(的)(保)(守)(党)(议)(员)(人)(数)(是)(否)(会)(达)(到)(48人)(的)(触)(发)(红)(线)(,但)(这)(一)(爆)(料)(无)(疑)(使)(得)(市)(场)(对)(于)(脱)(欧)(前)(景)(充)(满)(担)(忧)(。
事)(实)(上)(,在)(12日)(渣)(打)(银)(行)(最)(新)(公)(布)(的)(脱)(欧)(分)(析)(预)(测)(中)(,“凛)(冬)(将)(至)(”是)(整)(个)(报)(告)(的)(主)(题)(词)(,也)(反)(映)(了)(市)(场)(对)(脱)(欧)(进)(程)(的)(担)(忧)(。在)(这)(份)(报)(告)(中)(,渣)(打)(银)(行)(欧)(洲)(经)(济)(学)(家)(克)(里)(斯)(托)(弗)(·格)(拉)(汉)(姆)(表)(示)(,无)(论)(英)(欧)(双)(方)(政)(治)(领)(导)(人)(如)(何)(表)(态)(,第)(一)(个)(要)(解)(决)(的)(是)(北)(爱)(应)(急)(方)(案)(问)(题)(,欧)(盟)(方)(面)(近)(期)(的)(善)(意)(表)(态)(并)(未)(透)(露)(出)(双)(方)(具)(体)(妥)(协)(路)(径)(。因)(此)(,市)(场)(担)(忧)(之)(一)(是)(英)(欧)(之)(间)(能)(否)(尽)(快)(就)(此)(达)(成)(妥)(协)(。
然)(而)(,这)(也)(并)(非)(最)(大)(的)(挑)(战)(。即)(使)(当)(前)(脱)(欧)(协)(议)(久)(拖)(未)(决)(,但)(市)(场)(仍)(然)(普)(遍)(预)(期)(无)(论)(多)(么)(艰)(难)(,英)(欧)(之)(间)(仍)(然)(有)(可)(能)(达)(成)(某)(种)(形)(式)(的)(协)(定)(,这)(一)(协)(定)(不)(仅)(包)(括)(脱)(欧)(协)(议)(和)(过)(渡)(期)(安)(排)(,还)(将)(包)(括)(未)(来)(英)(欧)(关)(系)(的)(政)(治)(声)(明)(。
虽)(然)(脱)(欧)(协)(议)(本)(身)(是)(当)(前)(媒)(体)(和)(市)(场)(关)(注)(的)(焦)(点)(,但)(对)(脱)(欧)(前)(景)(造)(成)(更)(大)(威)(胁)(和)(冲)(击)(的)(可)(能)(是)(未)(来)(英)(国)(政)(府)(如)(何)(获)(得)(英)(国)(议)(会)(的)(支)(持)(。
有)(关)(未)(来)(英)(欧)(双)(边)(关)(系)(的)(政)(治)(声)(明)(虽)(然)(不)(具)(有)(约)(束)(力)(,却)(有)(可)(能)(造)(成)(英)(国)(议)(会)(的)(分)(裂)(。特)(雷)(莎)(·梅)(的)(“契)(克)(斯)(方)(案)(”初)(衷)(是)(寻)(求)(“软)(脱)(欧)(”和)(“硬)(退)(欧)(”的)(平)(衡)(,可)(结)(果)(是)(“谁)(都)(不)(喜)(欢)(契)(克)(斯)(方)(案)(”。
目)(前)(,保)(守)(党)(内)(部)(的)(温)(和)(派)(也)(对)(特)(雷)(莎)(·梅)(直)(接)(表)(达)(了)(不)(满)(,认)(为)(与)(欧)(盟)(的)(关)(系)(不)(够)(紧)(密)(。在)(日)(前)(保)(守)(党)(之)(家)(对)(保)(守)(党)(议)(员)(的)(问)(卷)(调)(查)(中)(,60%的)(议)(员)(认)(为)(“契)(克)(斯)(方)(案)(不)(是)(一)(个)(好)(方)(案)(”。
在)(当)(前)(市)(场)(预)(期)(中)(,英)(欧)(之)(间)(最)(终)(达)(成)(协)(议)(仍)(然)(是)(基)(准)(场)(景)(。但)(是)(,各)(方)(认)(为)(实)(现)(的)(路)(径)(将)(是)(非)(常)(曲)(折)(的)(。
因)(此)(,市)(场)(担)(忧)(即)(使)(英)(欧)(之)(间)(达)(成)(了)(某)(种)(协)(议)(,英)(国)(议)(会)(可)(能)(成)(为)(阻)(碍)(有)(协)(议)(脱)(欧)(的)(关)(键)(障)(碍)(。鉴)(于)(欧)(委)(会)(和)(欧)(洲)(理)(事)(会)(、欧)(洲)(议)(会)(保)(持)(了)(密)(切)(的)(定)(期)(交)(流)(机)(制)(,欧)(盟)(方)(面)(来)(自)(内)(部)(的)(挑)(战)(似)(乎)(远)(小)(于)(英)(国)(议)(会)(的)(内)(部)(挑)(战)(。
渣)(打)(银)(行)(预)(计)(,在)(未)(来)(相)(关)(脱)(欧)(议)(案)(的)(动)(议)(和)(立)(法)(期)(间)(,英)(国)(议)(会)(一)(次)(性)(完)(全)(通)(过)(的)(概)(率)(非)(常)(低)(,更)(大)(的)(概)(率)(是)(出)(现)(否)(决)(或)(者)(要)(求)(作)(出)(修)(改)(才)(能)(够)(通)(过)(。如)(果)(出)(现)(这)(两)(种)(结)(果)(,英)(国)(政)(府)(可)(能)(面)(临)(很)(大)(问)(题)(,可)(供)(其)(选)(择)(的)(方)(案)(包)(括)(以)(无)(协)(议)(脱)(欧)(要)(挟)(议)(会)(、重)(开)(与)(欧)(盟)(谈)(判)(或)(者)(首)(相)(选)(择)(辞)(职)(。无)(论)(是)(哪)(种)(结)(果)(,在)(严)(格)(的)(时)(间)(压)(力)(下)(,市)(场)(只)(能)(寄)(希)(望)(于)(英)(国)(与)(欧)(盟)(的)(政)(治)(领)(导)(人)(能)(够)(“识)(时)(务)(”、避)(免)(出)(现)(最)(坏)(的)(结)(果)(。
(经)(济)(日)(报)(记)(者)(:蒋)(华)(栋)(责)(编)(:刘)(辛)(未)()返)(回)(搜)(狐)(,查)(看)(更)(多)(责)(任)(编)(辑)(:
声)(明)(:该)(文)(观)(点)(仅)(代)(表)(作)(者)(本)(人)(,搜)(狐)(号)(系)(信)(息)(发)(布)(平)(台)(,搜)(狐)(仅)(提)(供)(信)(息)(存)(储)(空)(间)(服)(务)(。
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