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粉红色青蛙预测了地震?

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2018年10月19日 13:14:28
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(  2011年)(初)(,我)(曾)(看)(到)(一)(条)(新)(闻)(,标)(题)(是)(“欧)(债)(危)(机)(加)(剧)(,金)(价)(走)(高)(”。两)(年)(以)(后)(,我)(又)(看)(到)(一)(条)(新)(闻)(,标)(题)(是)(“欧)(债)(危)(机)(担)(忧)(加)(剧)(,黄)(金)(持)(续)(走)(低)(”。问)(题)(是)(,同)(样)(的)(欧)(债)(危)(机)(,同)(样)(的)(黄)(金)(价)(格)(预)(期)(,为)(什)(么)(结)(果)(不)(同)(?  是)(第)(一)(条)(分)(析)(错)(了)(?或)(者)(第)(二)(条)(理)(由)(欠)(缺)(?或)(者)(在)(不)(同)(的)(市)(场)(里)(,同)(样)(的)(逻)(辑)(导)(致)(的)(结)(果)(就)(应)(该)(是)(不)(一)(样)(的)(?其)(实)(,这)(些)(解)(释)(也)(许)(都)(不)(对)(。  HowardMarks在)(《投)(资)(最)(重)(要)(的)(事)(:给)(善)(于)(思)(考)(的)(投)(资)(者)(建)(议)(》中)(对)(这)(样)(的)(现)(象)(有)(一)(个)(我)(以)(为)(更)(为)(精)(辟)(的)(解)(释)(:在)(长)(期)(背)(离)(价)(值)(以)(后)(,价)(格)(的)(逆)(转)(并)(不)(真)(的)(需)(要)(外)(部)(的)(刺)(激)(因)(素)(,而)(在)(价)(格)(逆)(转)(的)(时)(候)(所)(找)(到)(的)(所)(谓)(“外)(部)(刺)(激)(因)(素)(”,很)(多)(时)(候)(只)(是)(人)(为)(加)(上)(去)(的)((就)(好)(像)(根)(据)(一)(只)(粉)(红)(色)(的)(青)(蛙)(恰)(巧)(出)(现)(在)(地)(震)(中)(心)(,就)(认)(为)(是)(粉)(红)(色)(青)(蛙)(预)(测)(了)(地)(震)(一)(样)()。他)(还)(指)(出)(,事)(实)(上)(,很)(多)(时)(候)(价)(格)(“严)(重)(”偏)(离)(价)(值)(这)(个)(因)(素)(本)(身)(,就)(会)(导)(致)(价)(格)(一)(旦)(逆)(转)(的)(时)(候)(,走)(势)(同)(样)(“严)(重)(”。  如)(果)(说)(对)(货)(币)(体)(系)(的)(信)(心)(崩)(溃)(是)(2012年)(以)(前)(黄)(金)(上)(涨)(的)(理)(由)(,就)(无)(法)(解)(释)(2012年)(以)(后)(的)(大)(幅)(下)(跌)(,也)(无)(法)(解)(释)(在)(2007年)(以)(前)(经)(济)(健)(康)(时)(的)(价)(格)(上)(涨)(;如)(果)(说)(2012年)(底)(延)(续)(至)(今)(的)(创)(业)(板)(上)(涨)(是)(经)(济)(转)(型)(的)(必)(然)(选)(择)(,就)(无)(法)(解)(释)(之)(前)(同)(一)(批)(公)(司)(长)(达)(两)(年)(的)(下)(跌)(;如)(果)(说)(房)(地)(产)(价)(格)(的)(上)(涨)(来)(自)(于)(刚)(性)(需)(求)(,就)(无)(法)(解)(释)(同)(期)(房)(租)(价)(格)(的)(上)(涨)(幅)(度)(如)(此)(之)(小)(。  事)(实)(上)(,市)(场)(的)(偏)(见)(,而)(不)(是)(基)(本)(面)(,决)(定)(了)(价)(格)(在)(短)(期)(的)(绝)(大)(部)(分)(波)(动)(。但)(是)(,用)(偏)(见)(去)(解)(释)(市)(场)(又)(显)(得)(那)(么)(不)(专)(业)(,所)(以)(人)(们)(还)(是)(努)(力)(地)(去)(使)(用)(基)(本)(面)(解)(释)(市)(场)(的)(波)(动)(。由)(于)(基)(本)(面)(事)(实)(上)(并)(不)(决)(定)(价)(格)(的)(短)(期)(波)(动)(,这)(些)(解)(释)(也)(就)(难)(免)(变)(得)(牵)(强)(、甚)(至)(有)(时)(候)(自)(相)(矛)(盾)(。  如)(此)(,HowardMarks所)(说)(的)(“价)(格)(对)(价)(值)(严)(重)(偏)(离)(本)(身)(,就)(是)(导)(致)(之)(后)(价)(格)(严)(重)(反)(转)(的)(主)(要)(原)(因)(”,就)(很)(容)(易)(理)(解)(了)(。价)(格)(对)(价)(值)(的)(严)(重)(偏)(离)(并)(不)(是)(来)(自)(于)(基)(本)(面)(的)(严)(重)(逆)(转)(,而)(是)(来)(自)(于)(市)(场)(偏)(见)(的)(严)(重)(累)(积)(和)(逆)(转)(。由)(于)(市)(场)(的)(偏)(见)(并)(非)(建)(立)(在)(牢)(固)(的)(基)(本)(面)(之)(上)(,故)(其)(一)(旦)(坍)(塌)(,速)(度)(也)(就)(不)(是)(基)(本)(面)(变)(化)(所)(能)(企)(及)(的)(了)(。  那)(么)(偏)(见)(是)(如)(何)(累)(积)(的)(呢)(?依)(据)(经)(济)(学)(理)(论)(,在)(自)(由)(、信)(息)(充)(分)(的)(市)(场)(中)(,难)(道)(投)(资)(者)(的)(判)(断)(不)(应)(该)(是)(与)(基)(本)(面)(相)(符)(合)(的)(吗)(?问)(题)(是)(,具)(有)(充)(分)(信)(息)(的)(、成)(熟)(的)(投)(资)(者)(事)(实)(上)(从)(来)(就)(不)(存)(在)(,即)(使)(十)(多)(年)(前)(美)(国)(那)(些)(自)(认)(为)(掌)(握)(了)(全)(球)(最)(先)(进)(科)(技)(信)(息)(的)(科)(技)(股)(投)(资)(者)(也)(不)(行)(:那)(些)(用)(全)(球)(最)(先)(进)(的)(科)(技)(武)(装)(到)(牙)(齿)(的)(投)(资)(者)(,最)(后)(还)(是)(被)(古)(老)(的)(偏)(见)(绊)(了)(一)(个)(大)(跟)(头)(。(作)(者)(单)(位)(:信)(达)(证)(券)()  作)(者)(:陈)(嘉)(禾)(
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