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宏观】PMI继续回升,补库存力度有所减弱——3月PMI数据点评

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2018年10月21日 10:08:42
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(原)(标)(题)(:【中)(信)(建)(投)(宏)(观)(】PMI继)(续)(回)(升)(,补)(库)(存)(力)(度)(有)(所)(减)(弱)(——3月)(PMI数)(据)(点)(评)(
中)(国)(3月)(官)(方)(制)(造)(业)(PMI指)(数)(51.8%,环)(比)(上)(升)(0.2个)(百)(分)(点)(,连)(续)(8个)(月)(位)(于)(扩)(张)(区)(间)(;非)(制)(造)(业)(商)(务)(活)(动)(指)(数)(55.1%,比)(上)(月)(回)(升)(0.9个)(百)(分)(点)(。点)(评)(如)(下)(:
1、生)(产)(与)(需)(求)(回)(升)(,补)(库)(存)(力)(度)(减)(弱)(。生)(产)(指)(数)(54.2,回)(升)(0.5个)(百)(分)(点)(、位)(于)(荣)(枯)(线)(上)(方)(,与)(高)(频)(数)(据)(显)(示)(的)(短)(期)(生)(产)(基)(本)(稳)(健)(相)(符)(。需)(求)(方)(面)(,新)(订)(单)(指)(数)(53.3,环)(比)(回)(升)(0.3个)(百)(分)(点)(,新)(出)(口)(订)(单)(指)(数)(回)(升)(0.2个)(百)(分)(点)(至)(51.0,均)(环)(比)(上)(升)(并)(高)(于)(枯)(荣)(线)(。库)(存)(指)(数)(回)(落)(。原)(材)(料)(库)(存)(指)(数)(环)(比)(下)(降)(0.3个)(百)(分)(点)(至)(48.3,产)(成)(品)(库)(存)(指)(数)(下)(降)(0.3个)(百)(分)(点)(至)(47.3,均)(在)(荣)(枯)(线)(之)(下)(回)(落)(。库)(存)(指)(数)(的)(回)(落)(也)(与)(高)(频)(数)(据)(显)(示)(的)(企)(业)(补)(库)(存)(有)(所)(分)(化)(、企)(业)(补)(库)(存)(力)(度)(相)(比)(前)(两)(月)(减)(弱)(相)(符)(。原)(材)(料)(购)(进)(价)(格)(59.3,环)(比)(大)(幅)(下)(降)(4.9个)(百)(分)(点)(,可)(能)(与)(上)(游)(原)(油)(价)(格)(回)(落)(有)(关)(。
2、大)(型)(企)(业)(与)(中)(小)(企)(业)(分)(化)(有)(所)(缓)(解)(。大)(型)(企)(业)(PMI环)(比)(持)(平)(、为)(53.3,中)(型)(企)(业)(PMI下)(滑)(0.1个)(百)(分)(点)(至)(50.4,小)(型)(企)(业)(PMI环)(比)(回)(升)(2.2个)(百)(分)(点)(至)(48.6。大)(企)(业)(在)(荣)(枯)(线)(之)(上)(持)(平)(、中)(型)(企)(业)(在)(荣)(枯)(线)(上)(小)(幅)(下)(滑)(、小)(企)(业)(在)(荣)(枯)(线)(之)(下)(较)(快)(回)(升)(,显)(示)(大)(型)(、中)(小)(企)(业)(的)(分)(化)(有)(所)(缓)(解)(。
3、基)(本)(面)(总)(体)(稳)(健)(,补)(库)(存)(力)(度)(减)(弱)(。整)(体)(看)(,3月)(份)(PMI指)(数)(于)(枯)(荣)(线)(之)(上)(继)(续)(回)(升)(,生)(产)(与)(需)(求)(指)(数)(在)(扩)(张)(区)(间)(内)(有)(所)(上)(升)(,结)(合)(同)(期)(发)(电)(耗)(煤)(仍)(持)(续)(同)(比)(正)(增)(长)(、工)(业)(企)(业)(产)(能)(利)(用)(率)(有)(所)(回)(升)(,生)(产)(短)(期)(仍)(基)(本)(平)(稳)(。但)(库)(存)(指)(数)(在)(荣)(枯)(线)(之)(下)(回)(落)(,印)(证)(了)(高)(频)(数)(据)(显)(示)(的)(近)(期)(企)(业)(补)(库)(存)(力)(度)(有)(所)(减)(弱)(,同)(时)(原)(材)(料)(购)(进)(价)(格)(继)(续)(回)(落)(,大)(型)(企)(业)(与)(中)(小)(企)(业)(分)(化)(有)(所)(缓)(解)(但)(仍)(在)(持)(续)(。考)(虑)(到)(下)(游)(需)(求)(尚)(有)(待)(改)(善)(、企)(业)(补)(库)(存)(力)(度)(减)(弱)(,月)(度)(经)(济)(数)(据)(好)(转)(的)(持)(续)(性)(还)(有)(待)(观)(察)(。
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