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【泽平宏观】做时间的朋友——2017年中期回顾与展望

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2018年10月21日 09:38:36
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意彩娱乐招商电话信誉平台官方,招龙虎和代理注册实力招商主管Q扣99277339,永久注册网址www.yicai269.com时时彩龙虎和,意彩彩票代理,意彩官网,意彩平台注册,意彩乐官网,意彩娱乐官方网站【泽平宏观】做时间的朋友——2017年中期回顾与展望

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(原)(标)(题)(:【泽)(平)(宏)(观)(】做)(时)(间)(的)(朋)(友)(——2017年)(中)(期)(回)(顾)(与)(展)(望)(
文)(:方)(正)(宏)(观)(任)(泽)(平)(
投)(资)(是)(一)(趟)(修)(心)(的)(伟)(大)(旅)(程)(。每)(年)(都)(有)(一)(批)(批)(朝)(圣)(者)(前)(往)(奥)(马)(哈)(聆)(听)(智)(者)(的)(布)(道)(,巴)(菲)(特)(告)(诉)(我)(们)(,“当)(别)(人)(恐)(惧)(的)(时)(候)(我)(贪)(婪)(,当)(别)(人)(贪)(婪)(的)(时)(候)(我)(恐)(惧)(”。市)(场)(在)(长)(期)(是)(有)(效)(的)(,由)(于)(悲)(观)(情)(绪)(跌)(破)(内)(在)(价)(值)(的)(资)(产)(最)(终)(将)(被)(市)(场)(纠)(正)(,做)(时)(间)(的)(朋)(友)(。知)(行)(合)(一)(是)(一)(生)(的)(修)(炼)(,现)(实)(中)(经)(常)(是)(“当)(别)(人)(恐)(惧)(的)(时)(候)(我)(更)(恐)(惧)(,当)(别)(人)(贪)(婪)(的)(时)(候)(我)(更)(贪)(婪)(”,流)(行)(的)(言)(论)(往)(往)(是)(随)(波)(逐)(流)(的)(情)(绪)(放)(大)(器)(。一)(个)(独)(处)(时)(冷)(静)(理)(智)(的)(个)(体)(,在)(融)(入)(群)(体)(之)(后)(往)(往)(会)(迷)(失)(自)(我)(,成)(为)(乌)(合)(之)(众)(的)(一)(员)(。
在)(金)(融)(的)(丛)(林)(里)(,面)(对)(不)(确)(定)(的)(未)(来)(,我)(们)(不)(得)(不)(依)(赖)(过)(往)(的)(经)(验)(、动)(物)(的)(直)(觉)(和)(对)(人)(性)(的)(反)(思)(。人)(是)(社)(会)(性)(动)(物)(,而)(投)(资)(往)(往)(是)(反)(人)(性)(的)(。既)(能)(顺)(应)(趋)(势)(,又)(敢)(于)(反)(思)(并)(提)(出)(独)(立)(客)(观)(的)(判)(断)(,不)(怕)(成)(为)(异)(类)(,不)(媚)(众)(,除)(了)(知)(识)(经)(验)(之)(外)(,还)(需)(要)(心)(态)(、勇)(气)(和)(耐)(心)(。所)(以)(,投)(资)(圈)(里)(很)(多)(大)(佬)(最)(后)(都)(去)(修)(了)(佛)(老)(。晨)(钟)(暮)(鼓)(警)(醒)(世)(间)(名)(利)(客)(,经)(声)(佛)(号)(唤)(回)(苦)(海)(梦)(迷)(人)(。不)(生)(亦)(不)(灭)(,不)(常)(亦)(不)(断)(,不)(一)(亦)(不)(异)(,不)(来)(亦)(不)(去)(。
总)(体)(来)(看)(,今)(年)(市)(场)(上)(流)(行)(的)(观)(点)(对)(经)(济)(、房)(市)(、股)(市)(、债)(市)(普)(遍)(悲)(观)(。在)(一)(片)(悲)(观)(之)(中)(,我)(们)(有)(没)(有)(忽)(视)(一)(些)(积)(极)(因)(素)(?有)(没)(有)(因)(为)(恐)(慌)(导)(致)(跌)(破)(内)(在)(价)(值)(的)(资)(产)(?拿)(着)(显)(微)(镜)(容)(易)(会)(将)(短)(期)(利)(好)(或)(利)(空)(因)(素)(放)(大)(,拿)(着)(望)(远)(镜)(才)(可)(能)(作)(出)(更)(全)(面)(客)(观)(的)(判)(断)(。
一)(、未)(来)(相)(当)(长)(的)(一)(段)(时)(间)(经)(济)(L型)(,过)(度)(悲)(观)(过)(度)(乐)(观)(可)(能)(都)(是)(错)(的)(
我)(们)(在)(2015年)(曾)(提)(出)(“未)(来)(相)(当)(长)(一)(段)(时)(间)(经)(济)(L型)(”的)(判)(断)(,经)(过)(2008-2015年)(快)(速)(下)(滑)(,2016-2018年)(中)(国)(经)(济)(将)(步)(入)(增)(速)(换)(挡)(期)(的)(波)(动)(筑)(底)(期)(。2016年)(初)(-2017年)(Q1经)(济)(小)(周)(期)(回)(升)(,GDP增)(速)(也)(只)(是)(从)(6.7%回)(升)(到)(6.9%,未)(来)(经)(济)(二)(次)(探)(底)(,但)(可)(能)(幅)(度)(不)(深)(、斜)(率)(不)(陡)(。下)(行)(力)(量)(来)(自)(去)(库)(存)(、房)(地)(产)(调)(控)(、金)(融)(去)(杠)(杆)(、财)(政)(整)(顿)(等)(,支)(撑)(力)(量)(来)(自)(出)(口)(复)(苏)(和)(制)(造)(业)(投)(资)(恢)(复)(等)(。
经)(济)(步)(入)(去)(库)(周)(期)(,但)(由)(于)(补)(库)(时)(间)(短)(、总)(体)(库)(存)(水)(平)(不)(高)(,未)(来)(去)(库)(压)(力)(可)(能)(并)(不)(大)(。随)(着)(需)(求)(和)(价)(格)(回)(落)(,2017年)(2季)(度)(主)(动)(补)(库)(转)(入)(被)(动)(补)(库)(存)(和)(主)(动)(去)(库)(存)(,预)(计)(去)(库)(存)(周)(期)(将)(持)(续)(到)(2018年)(下)(半)(年)(。由)(于)(前)(期)(补)(库)(存)(阶)(段)(企)(业)(对)(未)(来)(经)(济)(前)(景)(普)(遍)(谨)(慎)(,因)(此)(补)(库)(时)(间)(较)(短)(、总)(体)(库)(存)(水)(平)(并)(不)(高)(,2017年)(1-4月)(规)(上)(工)(业)(企)(业)(产)(成)(品)(库)(存)(累)(计)(增)(长)(10.4%,为)(此)(轮)(补)(库)(周)(期)(的)(高)(点)(,但)(却)(远)(远)(低)(于)(前)(几)(轮)(库)(存)(高)(点)(,比)(如)(,2014年)(1-8月)(15.6%、2011年)(1-10月)(24.2%、2008年)(1-8月)(28.5%,因)(此)(未)(来)(去)(库)(存)(对)(经)(济)(的)(拖)(累)(也)(将)(弱)(于)(前)(几)(轮)(周)(期)(。而)(且)(,煤)(炭)(、螺)(纹)(钢)(等)(库)(存)(水)(平)(甚)(至)(仍)(处)(于)(历)(史)(低)(位)(,近)(期)(在)(黑)(色)(系)(带)(领)(下)(大)(宗)(商)(品)(价)(格)(甚)(至)(再)(度)(反)(弹)(。
房)(地)(产)(销)(售)(投)(资)(边)(际)(走)(弱)(,但)(房)(地)(产)(投)(资)(仍)(将)(超)(市)(场)(预)(期)(。2016年)(底)(,市)(场)(普)(遍)(对)(2017年)(房)(地)(产)(投)(资)(十)(分)(悲)(观)(,大)(部)(分)(预)(测)(在)(0增)(长)(附)(近)(,我)(们)(专)(门)(出)(了)(一)(篇)(报)(告)(《为)(什)(么)(我)(们)(对)(2017年)(房)(地)(产)(投)(资)(不)(悲)(观)(?》,结)(果)(2017年)(1-5月)(房)(地)(产)(投)(资)(累)(计)(增)(长)(高)(达)(8.8%,高)(于)(2016年)(全)(年)(的)(6.9%,房)(地)(产)(销)(售)(金)(额)(、面)(积)(在)(去)(年)(同)(期)(50.7%、30.2%的)(高)(基)(数)(基)(础)(上)(又)(分)(别)(增)(长)(了)(18.6%、14.3%,尤)(其)(是)(三)(四)(线)(城)(市)(销)(售)(大)(幅)(超)(预)(期)(,主)(要)(受)(益)(于)(大)(都)(市)(圈)(外)(溢)(效)(应)(、农)(民)(工)(返)(乡)(和)(棚)(改)(去)(库)(存)(。更)(为)(值)(得)(重)(视)(的)(是)(,北)(京)(上)(海)(的)(商)(品)(房)(销)(售)(中)(80%左)(右)(是)(二)(手)(房)(,而)(三)(四)(线)(城)(市)(90%左)(右)(是)(新)(房)(,这)(对)(家)(电)(家)(具)(等)(地)(产)(后)(周)(期)(行)(业)(带)(动)(十)(分)(明)(显)(,这)(也)(造)(就)(了)(今)(年)(家)(电)(家)(具)(行)(业)(牛)(股)(辈)(出)(。考)(虑)(到)(一)(二)(三)(四)(线)(城)(市)(商)(品)(房)(库)(存)(去)(化)(十)(分)(充)(分)((2016年)(商)(品)(房)(销)(售)(额)(增)(长)(34.8%,而)(房)(地)(产)(开)(发)(投)(资)(仅)(增)(长)(6.9%,这)(是)(近)(二)(十)(年)(来)(二)(者)(剪)(刀)(差)(最)(大)(的)(一)(次)(,表)(明)(库)(存)(去)(化)(十)(分)(充)(分)()、大)(开)(发)(商)(现)(金)(流)(充)(裕)(、2018-2020年)(还)(有)(1500万)(套)(棚)(改)(项)(目)(,预)(计)(房)(地)(产)(投)(资)(增)(速)(未)(来)(将)(边)(际)(放)(缓)(,但)(仍)(将)(超)(市)(场)(预)(期)(,预)(计)(2017年)(全)(年)(增)(长)(5%左)(右)(。
2017年)(基)(建)(投)(资)(有)(放)(缓)(压)(力)(。2017年)(1-5月)(基)(建)(投)(资)((电)(力)(+交)(运)(+公)(共)(设)(施)()累)(计)(增)(长)(17.3%,虽)(然)(高)(于)(2016年)(的)(16.1%,但)(是)(低)(于)(2017年)(一)(季)(度)(的)(19.4%,有)(放)(缓)(迹)(象)(,可)(能)(跟)(一)(季)(度)(GDP增)(速)(高)(达)(6.9%、财)(政)(收)(入)(放)(缓)(、新)(一)(轮)(财)(政)(整)(顿)(等)(因)(素)(有)(关)(。继)(50号)(文)((《关)(于)(进)(一)(步)(规)(范)(地)(方)(政)(府)(举)(债)(融)(资)(行)(为)(的)(通)(知)(》)、87号)(文)((《关)(于)(坚)(决)(制)(止)(地)(方)(以)(政)(府)(购)(买)(服)(务)(名)(义)(违)(法)(违)(规)(融)(资)(的)(通)(知)(》)后)(,国)(务)(院)(第)(4次)(大)(督)(查)(将)(于)(2017年)(7月)(派)(出)(督)(查)(组)(,重)(点)(督)(查)(地)(方)(违)(法)(违)(规)(融)(资)(担)(保)(等)(,下)(半)(年)(地)(方)(融)(资)(和)(基)(建)(将)(下)(滑)(。
2017年)(出)(口)(复)(苏)(将)(超)(预)(期)(。我)(们)(在)(2016年)(底)(曾)(预)(测)(“2017年)(出)(口)(肯)(定)(比)(2016年)(好)(”。在)(美)(欧)(经)(济)(复)(苏)(、2015年)(8月)(-2016年)(底)(人)(民)(币)(兑)(美)(元)(贬)(值)(14%等)(因)(素)(推)(动)(下)(,2017年)(1-5月)(出)(口)(累)(计)(增)(长)(8.2%,远)(高)(于)(2016年)(的)(-7.7%和)(2015年)(的)(-2.9%。考)(虑)(到)(美)(欧)(先)(后)(经)(过)(金)(融)(去)(杠)(杆)(,经)(济)(复)(苏)(的)(可)(持)(续)(性)(较)(强)(,因)(此)(2017年)(出)(口)(对)(中)(国)(经)(济)(将)(有)(正)(向)(支)(撑)(。
2017年)(制)(造)(业)(投)(资)(将)(逐)(步)(恢)(复)(,但)(较)(为)(缓)(慢)(。在)(企)(业)(利)(润)(改)(善)(、出)(口)(复)(苏)(、设)(备)(更)(新)(等)(带)(动)(下)(,制)(造)(业)(投)(资)(自)(2016年)(下)(半)(年)(以)(来)(出)(现)(改)(善)(迹)(象)(,2017年)(1-5月)(制)(造)(业)(投)(资)(累)(计)(增)(长)(5.1%,高)(于)(2016年)(的)(4.2%。2017年)(1-5月)(规)(上)(工)(业)(企)(业)(利)(润)(同)(比)(增)(长)(22.7%,为)(2012年)(以)(来)(最)(高)(水)(平)(。但)(是)(,由)(于)(企)(业)(对)(未)(来)(经)(济)(前)(景)(仍)(谨)(慎)(,因)(此)(窖)(藏)(现)(金)(,制)(造)(业)(投)(资)(恢)(复)(较)(为)(缓)(慢)(。
中)(国)(经)(济)(结)(构)(正)(进)(入)(消)(费)(主)(导)(,波)(动)(收)(敛)(。2016年)(第)(三)(产)(业)(占)(GDP比)(重)(已)(上)(升)(至)(51.6%,大)(幅)(超)(过)(第)(二)(产)(业)(的)(39.8%和)(工)(业)(的)(33.3%,消)(费)(率)(已)(攀)(升)(至)(51.6%,投)(资)(率)(降)(至)(44.9%。考)(虑)(到)(消)(费)(刚)(性)(和)(升)(级)(,随)(着)(中)(国)(经)(济)(步)(入)(服)(务)(消)(费)(主)(导)(的)(社)(会)(,经)(济)(的)(波)(动)(性)(将)(下)(降)(、稳)(定)(性)(将)(提)(高)(。
因)(此)(,经)(济)(在)(中)(期)(处)(在)(L型)(的)(波)(动)(筑)(底)(,预)(计)(2017年)(二)(次)(探)(底)(,但)(幅)(度)(不)(深)(,预)(计)(1-4季)(度)(GDP增)(速)(分)(别)(为)(6.9%、6.8%、6.7%、6.6%,2018年)(1季)(度)(压)(力)(稍)(大)(,可)(能)(破)(6.5%。
虽)(然)(经)(济)(L型)(,但)(结)(构)(分)(化)(却)(是)(天)(壤)(之)(别)(,市)(场)(化)(的)(传)(统)(行)(业)(经)(过)(产)(能)(出)(清)(进)(入)(剩)(者)(为)(王)(、赢)(者)(通)(吃)(的)(时)(代)(,“新)(5%比)(旧)(8%好)(”,低)(估)(值)(有)(业)(绩)(的)(行)(业)(龙)(头)(崛)(起)(,催)(生)(漂)(亮)(50。展)(望)(未)(来)(,库)(存)(周)(期)(、房)(地)(产)(周)(期)(行)(将)(结)(束)(,出)(口)(周)(期)(、产)(能)(周)(期)(、政)(治)(周)(期)(等)(新)(周)(期)(正)(在)(开)(启)(。
二)(、金)(融)(去)(杠)(杆)(真)(的)(一)(去)(就)(灵)(吗)(?中)(国)(经)(济)(的)(出)(路)(不)(简)(单)(是)(去)(杠)(杆)(,更)(重)(要)(的)(是)(改)(革)(!
从)(金)(融)(杠)(杆)(率)(周)(期)(来)(看)(,美)(欧)(先)(后)(完)(成)(了)(去)(杠)(杆)(,私)(人)(部)(门)(资)(产)(负)(债)(表)(修)(复)(,具)(备)(了)(再)(出)(发)(和)(经)(济)(持)(续)(复)(苏)(的)(能)(力)(。美)(国)(在)(次)(贷)(危)(机)(之)(后)(经)(过)(2008-2011年)(金)(融)(去)(杠)(杆)(,欧)(洲)(在)(主)(权)(债)(务)(危)(机)(之)(后)(经)(过)(2011-2016年)(金)(融)(去)(杠)(杆)(,先)(后)(步)(入)(加)(杠)(杆)(周)(期)(。在)(抑)(制)(房)(地)(产)(金)(融)(部)(门)(的)(同)(时)(,美)(欧)(经)(济)(通)(过)(QE零)(利)(率)(、私)(人)(部)(门)(资)(产)(负)(债)(表)(修)(复)(、再)(制)(造)(化)(、页)(岩)(油)(气)(革)(命)(、减)(税)(等)(振)(兴)(实)(体)(经)(济)(。因)(此)(,美)(欧)(经)(济)(先)(后)(复)(苏)(而)(中)(国)(经)(济)(持)(续)(衰)(退)(,美)(欧)(股)(市)(先)(后)(走)(牛)(而)(A股)(大)(起)(大)(落)(之)(后)(长)(期)(震)(荡)(。
反)(观)(2008年)(以)(来)(,中)(国)(过)(度)(刺)(激)(房)(地)(产)(导)(致)(金)(融)(加)(杠)(杆)(和)(实)(体)(衰)(落)(。中)(国)(经)(济)(1999-2007年)(去)(杠)(杆)(,2008-2016年)(上)(半)(年)(加)(杠)(杆)(,2016年)(下)(半)(年)(以)(来)(去)(杠)(杆)(。金)(融)(加)(杠)(杆)(周)(期)(尾)(声)(是)(滞)(涨)(,去)(杠)(杆)(是)(债)(务)(通)(缩)(循)(环)(。2008年)(之)(后)(,在)(三)(次)(货)(币)(宽)(松)(、刺)(激)(房)(地)(产)(和)(金)(融)(自)(由)(化)(的)(背)(景)(下)(,房)(地)(产)(金)(融)(部)(门)(迎)(来)(空)(前)(的)(过)(度)(繁)(荣)(,2008-2016年)(北)(京)(上)(海)(深)(圳)(房)(价)(涨)(幅)(高)(达)(惊)(人)(的)(6倍)(之)(多)(。房)(地)(产)(部)(门)(的)(过)(度)(繁)(荣)(导)(致)(实)(体)(经)(济)(成)(本)(大)(幅)(上)(升)(,金)(融)(部)(门)(的)(过)(度)(繁)(荣)(拉)(长)(资)(金)(链)(条)(抬)(升)(融)(资)(成)(本)(,实)(体)(和)(金)(融)(是)(皮)(和)(毛)(的)(关)(系)(,缺)(少)(实)(体)(经)(济)(支)(撑)(的)(金)(融)(地)(产)(繁)(荣)(落)(入)(加)(杠)(杆)(和)(庞)(氏)(融)(资)(。而)(2008年)(以)(后)(美)(欧)(虽)(然)(实)(施)(QE和)(零)(利)(率)(,但)(房)(地)(产)(和)(金)(融)(部)(门)(受)(到)(了)(沃)(尔)(克)(法)(则)(、金)(融)(杠)(杆)(等)(监)(管)(约)(束)(,“宽)(货)(币)(+严)(监)(管)(”政)(策)(组)(合)(推)(动)(了)(金)(融)(去)(杠)(杆)(。中)(国)(经)(济)(可)(能)(已)(落)(入)(“流)(动)(性)(陷)(阱)(”。2015-2016年)(上)(半)(年)(,M1大)(幅)(回)(升)(而)(M2并)(未)(跟)(随)(,表)(明)(超)(发)(的)(货)(币)(并)(未)(流)(入)(实)(体)(经)(济)(进)(行)(信)(用)(创)(造)(,而)(是)(推)(涨)(资)(产)(价)(格)(,落)(入)(流)(动)(性)(陷)(阱)(,这)(是)(金)(融)(加)(杠)(杆)(周)(期)(尾)(声)(的)(典)(型)(特)(点)(,投)(机)(型)(投)(资)(者)(向)(庞)(氏)(型)(投)(资)(者)(转)(变)(。
金)(融)(自)(由)(化)(导)(致)(影)(子)(银)(行)(崛)(起)(和)(监)(管)(套)(利)(。2011-2013年)(、2014-2017年)(商)(业)(银)(行)(总)(负)(债)(增)(速)(远)(超)(M2增)(速)(,先)(后)(采)(用)(表)(外)(理)(财)(和)(同)(业)(存)(单)(进)(行)(主)(动)(负)(债)(,通)(过)(规)(避)(监)(管)(、放)(大)(杠)(杆)(进)(行)(套)(利)(。2014-2017年)(形)(成)(同)(业)(存)(单)(—同)(业)(理)(财)(-委)(外)(投)(资)(的)(套)(利)(链)(条)(。2014年)(在)(信)(托)(通)(道)(监)(管)(趋)(严)(的)(背)(景)(下)(,监)(管)(层)(鼓)(励)(非)(银)(机)(构)(创)(新)(,基)(金)(子)(公)(司)(、券)(商)(资)(管)(、新)(兴)(保)(险)((万)(能)(险)()等)(补)(位)(信)(托)(,成)(为)(新)(的)(加)(杠)(杆)(通)(道)(。2011年)(末)(-2016年)(末)(券)(商)(资)(管)(规)(模)(从)(2818.68亿)(元)(飙)(升)(至)(17.82万)(亿)(元)(,五)(年)(间)(年)(化)(复)(合)(增)(速)(高)(达)(45%,基)(金)(子)(公)(司)(2013-2016年)(从)(9000多)(亿)(飙)(升)(至)(10.5万)(亿)(,创)(造)(了)(3年)(10倍)(的)(增)(长)(奇)(迹)(。利)(率)(市)(场)(化)(催)(生)(同)(业)(存)(单)(,中)(小)(银)(行)(借)(此)(主)(动)(负)(债)(做)(大)(规)(模)(,并)(通)(过)(委)(外)(投)(资)(进)(行)(加)(杠)(杆)(、加)(久)(期)(和)(下)(沉)(信)(用)(,同)(业)(存)(单)(发)(行)(量)(从)(2014年)(9000亿)(飙)(升)(至)(2016年)(的)(13万)(亿)(。
为)(什)(么)(中)(小)(银)(行)(爱)(发)(行)(同)(业)(存)(单)(:主)(动)(稳)(定)(、无)(需)(缴)(准)(、监)(管)(短)(板)(。发)(行)(自)(主)(权)(在)(发)(行)(银)(行)(,可)(根)(据)(自)(身)(需)(要)(主)(动)(负)(债)(,自)(主)(确)(定)(发)(行)(金)(额)((起)(点)(5000万)()与)(期)(限)(,不)(会)(被)(提)(前)(支)(取)(,稳)(定)(性)(高)(。同)(业)(存)(单)(发)(行)(银)(行)(负)(债)(端)(记)(在)(“应)(付)(债)(券)(”科)(目)(,不)(必)(像)(存)(款)(一)(样)(缴)(准)(,理)(论)(上)(具)(有)(无)(限)(的)(货)(币)(创)(造)(能)(力)(,不)(受)(“单)(家)(商)(业)(银)(行)(同)(业)(融)(入)(资)(金)(余)(额)(不)(得)(超)(过)(该)(银)(行)(负)(债)(总)(额)(的)(三)(分)(之)(一)(”的)(限)(制)(,理)(论)(上)(具)(有)(无)(限)(的)(负)(债)(扩)(张)(能)(力)(。从)(资)(产)(投)(向)(来)(看)(,购)(买)(同)(业)(理)(财)((空)(转)(套)(利)()、委)(外)(投)(资)((监)(管)(套)(利)()缺)(乏)(监)(管)(且)(不)(消)(耗)(资)(本)(。未)(来)(如)(果)(纳)(入)(同)(业)(负)(债)(、缴)(准)(和)(计)(提)(资)(本)(,将)(导)(致)(影)(子)(银)(行)(缩)(表)(、信)(用)(收)(缩)(和)(低)(评)(级)(债)(券)(抛)(售)(压)(力)(。
三)(轮)(金)(融)(加)(杠)(杆)(的)(底)(层)(资)(产)(均)(是)(房)(地)(产)(和)(地)(方)(融)(资)(平)(台)(,金)(融)(纪)(律)(涣)(散)(的)(背)(后)(是)(财)(政)(纪)(律)(软)(约)(束)(。过)(去)(10年)(,基)(建)(投)(资)(高)(歌)(猛)(进)(,房)(地)(产)(销)(售)(大)(起)(大)(落)(,制)(造)(业)(投)(资)(持)(续)(萎)(缩)(,表)(明)(主)(要)(是)(地)(方)(融)(资)(平)(台)(和)(房)(地)(产)(部)(门)(加)(杠)(杆)(,再)(次)(证)(明)(金)(融)(纪)(律)(背)(后)(是)(财)(政)(纪)(律)(,金)(融)(被)(迫)(为)(财)(政)(买)(单)(。某)(种)(意)(义)(上)(,近)(年)(大)(规)(模)(地)(方)(债)(务)(置)(换)(是)(在)(中)(央)(信)(用)(背)(书)(下)(对)(过)(去)(地)(方)(财)(政)(融)(资)(的)(货)(币)(化)(买)(单)(,三)(四)(线)(房)(地)(产)(去)(库)(存)(是)(对)(过)(去)(地)(方)(造)(城)(铺)(摊)(子)(的)(货)(币)(化)(买)(单)(,一)(次)(次)(债)(务)(货)(币)(化)(导)(致)(货)(币)(超)(发)(,引)(发)(房)(价)(轮)(番)(上)(涨)(,会)(导)(致)(全)(社)(会)(买)(单)(。因)(此)(,在)(金)(融)(秩)(序)(整)(顿)(的)(同)(时)(,亟)(需)(推)(动)(财)(税)(、国)(企)(等)(软)(约)(束)(部)(门)(的)(改)(革)(,并)(跟)(中)(央)(信)(用)(剥)(离)(,打)(破)(刚)(兑)(。
金)(融)(去)(杠)(杆)(真)(的)(一)(去)(就)(灵)(吗)(?中)(国)(经)(济)(的)(出)(路)(不)(简)(单)(是)(去)(杠)(杆)(,更)(重)(要)(的)(是)(改)(革)(。过)(去)(这)(些)(年)(,政)(策)(以)(服)(务)(实)(体)(的)(名)(义)(进)(行)(了)(大)(量)(金)(融)(创)(新)(和)(货)(币)(宽)(松)(,但)(最)(终)(却)(推)(升)(了)(房)(价)(、拉)(长)(了)(资)(金)(链)(条)(,反)(而)(实)(体)(经)(济)(受)(到)(了)(伤)(害)(。现)(在)(政)(策)(为)(服)(务)(实)(体)(经)(济)(进)(行)(金)(融)(去)(杠)(杆)(、引)(导)(资)(金)(脱)(虚)(向)(实)(,结)(果)(融)(资)(成)(本)(高)(企)(,实)(体)(经)(济)(再)(一)(次)(受)(到)(伤)(害)(。现)(在)(有)(一)(种)(流)(行)(的)(观)(点)(,认)(为)(金)(融)(去)(杠)(杆)(一)(去)(就)(灵)(。我)(们)(认)(为)(,中)(国)(经)(济)(的)(根)(本)(问)(题)(是)(金)(融)(改)(革)((利)(率)(市)(场)(化)(、金)(融)(自)(由)(化)()和)(实)(体)(改)(革)((国)(企)(改)(革)(、财)(税)(改)(革)(等)(针)(对)(软)(约)(束)(部)(门)()不)(匹)(配)(,国)(企)(、地)(方)(融)(资)(平)(台)(等)(低)(效)(率)(部)(门)(借)(助)(隐)(性)(背)(书)(和)(刚)(性)(兑)(付)(加)(杠)(杆)(占)(用)(了)(过)(多)(资)(源)(,而)(民)(企)(、制)(造)(业)(、生)(产)(性)(服)(务)(业)(等)(高)(效)(率)(部)(门)(被)(挤)(出)(。如)(果)(不)(能)(推)(动)(改)(革)(提)(升)(实)(体)(经)(济)(回)(报)(率)(,即)(使)(金)(融)(杠)(杆)(去)(掉)(,资)(金)(也)(未)(必)(回)(流)(实)(体)(经)(济)(,而)(是)(可)(能)(落)(入)(“流)(动)(性)(陷)(阱)(”。当)(前)(金)(融)(去)(杠)(杆)(误)(伤)(实)(体)(经)(济)(不)(容)(忽)(视)(,未)(来)(的)(根)(本)(在)(于)(推)(动)(国)(企)(、财)(税)(等)(软)(约)(束)(领)(域)(的)(改)(革)(,打)(破)(刚)(兑)(,大)(规)(模)(减)(税)(,放)(松)(服)(务)(业)(管)(制)(,并)(加)(强)(金)(融)(监)(管)(协)(调)(。
未)(来)(金)(融)(降)(杠)(杆)(的)(政)(策)(组)(合)(应)(从)(“紧)(货)(币)(+严)(监)(管)(+弱)(改)(革)(”转)(向)(“宽)(货)(币)(+严)(监)(管)(+强)(改)(革)(”。美)(国)(在)(金)(融)(去)(杠)(杆)(时)(期)(货)(币)(政)(策)(和)(监)(管)(政)(策)(的)(配)(合)(值)(得)(借)(鉴)(,2009-2014年)(美)(联)(储)(长)(期)(实)(施)(零)(利)(率)(和)(QE,但)(是)(对)(房)(地)(产)(和)(商)(业)(银)(行)(监)(管)(升)(级)(,实)(施)(沃)(尔)(克)(法)(则)(并)(控)(制)(杠)(杆)(率)(,因)(此)(金)(融)(去)(杠)(杆)(比)(较)(有)(效)(,房)(地)(产)(金)(融)(泡)(沫)(没)(有)(过)(度)(膨)(胀)(,私)(人)(部)(门)(资)(产)(负)(债)(表)(得)(到)(修)(复)(,经)(济)(步)(入)(可)(持)(续)(复)(苏)(轨)(道)(。因)(此)(,货)(币)(宽)(松)(不)(是)(加)(杠)(杆)(的)(罪)(魁)(祸)(首)(,监)(管)(放)(松)(导)(致)(了)(房)(地)(产)(金)(融)(部)(门)(的)(过)(度)(繁)(荣)(,金)(融)(降)(杠)(杆)(的)(政)(策)(组)(合)(应)(是)(“宽)(货)(币)(+严)(监)(管)(+强)(改)(革)(”。考)(虑)(到)(油)(价)(大)(宗)(价)(格)(下)(跌)(、房)(价)(环)(比)(放)(缓)(、利)(率)(超)(调)(,下)(半)(年)(再)(通)(胀)(到)(再)(通)(缩)(压)(力)(增)(加)(,年)(底)(CPI可)(能)(回)(落)(至)(1%附)(近)(。考)(虑)(到)(去)(年)(PPI从)(年)(初)(的)(-5%大)(涨)(至)(年)(底)(的)(5.5%,预)(计)(今)(年)(底)(PPI可)(能)(回)(落)(至)(0附)(近)(,2018年)(Q1可)(能)(负)(增)(长)(。面)(临)(再)(通)(缩)(和)(实)(体)(融)(资)(成)(本)(大)(幅)(上)(升)(的)(压)(力)(,货)(币)(政)(策)(边)(际)(不)(宜)(过)(度)(收)(紧)(,应)(逐)(步)(回)(归)(逆)(周)(期)(调)(节)(,降)(低)(企)(业)(融)(资)(成)(本)(,宏)(观)(审)(慎)(和)(监)(管)(政)(策)(可)(以)(适)(当)(保)(持)(压)(力)(降)(杠)(杆)(稳)(杠)(杆)(,堵)(住)(资)(金)(流)(向)(房)(地)(产)(和)(金)(融)(加)(杠)(杆)(的)(管)(道)(。
过)(去)(10年)(,中)(国)(经)(济)(改)(革)(走)(了)(不)(少)(弯)(路)(,比)(如)(,试)(图)(通)(过)(刺)(激)(房)(地)(产)(来)(稳)(增)(长)(,试)(图)(通)(过)(金)(融)(自)(由)(化)(绕)(过)(软)(约)(束)(部)(门)(来)(提)(升)(资)(源)(配)(置)(效)(率)(,试)(图)(在)(竞)(争)(性)(领)(域)(做)(大)(做)(强)(国)(企)(,等)(等)(。最)(终)(发)(现)(,国)(企)(、财)(税)(、社)(保)(、行)(政)(管)(理)(体)(制)(等)(深)(层)(次)(改)(革)(是)(绕)(不)(过)(去)(的)(,必)(须)(攻)(坚)(克)(难)(。
作)(者)(曾)(在)(体)(制)(内)(研)(究)(了)(5年)(公)(共)(政)(策)(,并)(参)(与)(改)(革)(方)(案)(,深)(感)(越)(是)(将)(历)(史)(拉)(长)(,经)(济)(发)(展)(越)(具)(有)(普)(遍)(规)(律)(,比)(如)(,在)(竞)(争)(性)(领)(域)(民)(营)(企)(业)(因)(为)(产)(权)(清)(晰)(激)(励)(到)(位)(比)(国)(企)(更)(有)(效)(率)(;减)(税)(不)(仅)(有)(拉)(弗)(曲)(线)(效)(应)(更)(重)(要)(的)(是)(提)(振)(企)(业)(和)(消)(费)(者)(信)(心)(;没)(有)(一)(个)(国)(家)(可)(以)(通)(过)(刺)(激)(房)(地)(产)(实)(现)(长)(期)(繁)(荣)(,房)(价)(暴)(涨)(不)(仅)(恶)(化)(收)(入)(分)(配)(而)(且)(抬)(升)(实)(体)(经)(济)(成)(本)(,最)(终)(饮)(鸩)(止)(渴)(抑)(制)(长)(期)(经)(济)(增)(长)(,日)(本)(在)(上)(世)(纪)(80年)(代)(、美)(国)(在)(20世)(纪)(初)(都)(曾)(犯)(过)(类)(似)(的)(错)(误)(,那)(些)(缺)(乏)(财)(政)(金)(融)(纪)(律)(的)(新)(兴)(市)(场)(国)(家)(更)(是)(经)(常)(禁)(不)(住)(诱)(惑)(;包)(容)(性)(政)(治)(经)(济)(制)(度)(比)(攫)(取)(性)(制)(度)(更)(能)(促)(进)(长)(期)(经)(济)(增)(长)(和)(自)(由)(民)(主)(,攫)(取)(性)(政)(治)(制)(度)(下)(的)(包)(容)(性)(经)(济)(制)(度)(即)(使)(暂)(时)(能)(够)(实)(现)(短)(期)(经)(济)(增)(长)(但)(也)(有)(复)(辟)(重)(回)(攫)(取)(性)(经)(济)(制)(度)(的)(可)(能)(。中)(国)(30多)(年)(的)(改)(革)(开)(放)(便)(是)(尊)(重)(市)(场)(经)(济)(普)(遍)(规)(律)(的)(结)(果)(,越)(尊)(重)(普)(遍)(规)(律)(,越)(开)(放)(,越)(自)(信)(。站)(在)(大)(时)(代)(的)(转)(折)(点)(上)(,衷)(心)(希)(望)(中)(国)(能)(够)(重)(启)(市)(场)(化)(改)(革)(,开)(启)(新)(的)(未)(来)(!
三)(、做)(时)(间)(的)(朋)(友)(:涨)(上)(去)(的)(是)(风)(险)(,跌)(下)(来)(的)(是)(机)(会)(,债)(市)(配)(置)(价)(值)(凸)(显)(,港)(股)(牛)(市)(,股)(市)(震)(荡)(结)(构)(性)(机)(会)(,大)(都)(市)(圈)(房)(子)(相)(对)(具)(备)(长)(期)(配)(置)(价)(值)(
今)(年)(大)(家)(普)(遍)(反)(映)(投)(资)(比)(较)(难)(做)(,主)(要)(是)(相)(对)(2014-2015年)(货)(币)(超)(发)(推)(动)(资)(产)(价)(格)(轮)(番)(上)(涨)(而)(言)(,随)(着)(流)(动)(性)(退)(潮)(,股)(债)(调)(整)(,市)(场)(缺)(少)(激)(动)(人)(心)(的)(系)(统)(性)(机)(会)(。但)(对)(于)(专)(业)(的)(投)(资)(者)(而)(言)(,涨)(上)(去)(的)(是)(风)(险)(,跌)(下)(来)(的)(是)(机)(会)(,3.6%的)(10年)(期)(国)(债)(显)(然)(比)(2.6%的)(更)(有)(配)(置)(价)(值)(,3000点)(的)(A股)(比)(5000点)(看)(上)(去)(变)(得)(安)(全)(了)(。2017年)(很)(难)(赚)(到)(央)(行)(投)(放)(的)(快)(钱)(,但)(可)(以)(赚)(到)(估)(值)(修)(复)(和)(业)(绩)(增)(长)(的)(慢)(钱)(,做)(时)(间)(的)(朋)(友)(。
今)(年)(上)(半)(年)(跑)(赢)(现)(金)(类)(资)(产)(的)(机)(会)(不)(少)(:
从)(年)(初)(以)(来)(,黄)(金)(涨)(了)(11%。我)(们)(在)(2016年)(12月)(报)(告)(《黄)(金)(价)(格)(的)(决)(定)(因)(素)(与)(2017年)(展)(望)(》进)(行)(了)(推)(荐)(:“考)(虑)(到)(11月)(9日)(特)(朗)(普)(逆)(袭)(成)(功)(后)(,市)(场)(预)(期)(可)(能)(过)(头)(,基)(建)(+减)(税)(+反)(移)(民)(等)(新)(政)(将)(面)(临)(诸)(多)(不)(确)(定)(性)(,2017年)(1-2季)(度)(黄)(金)(可)(能)(有)(机)(会)(。”
港)(股)(恒)(生)(指)(数)(涨)(了)(16%,便)(宜)(是)(硬)(道)(理)(,资)(金)(南)(下)(提)(供)(了)(估)(值)(修)(复)(的)(催)(化)(剂)(。
美)(股)(、欧)(洲)(股)(市)(、印)(度)(股)(市)(等)(外)(围)(纷)(纷)(走)(牛)(,除)(中)(国)(外)(的)(全)(球)(经)(济)(走)(向)(复)(苏)(,美)(欧)(英)(央)(行)(集)(体)(转)(向)(鹰)(派)(。
国)(内)(股)(市)(,在)(小)(股)(票)(不)(断)(创)(新)(低)(的)(同)(时)(,以)(茅)(台)(、格)(力)(、平)(安)(、美)(的)(、招)(商)(银)(行)(等)(为)(代)(表)(的)(行)(业)(龙)(头)(漂)(亮)(50均)(出)(现)(了)(大)(幅)(上)(涨)(,部)(分)(股)(价)(创)(历)(史)(新)(高)(,而)(且)(这)(些)(股)(票)(都)(是)(大)(票)(,可)(以)(买)(到)(量)(。2017年)(投)(资)(者)(业)(绩)(分)(化)(比)(较)(明)(显)(,价)(值)(投)(资)(复)(兴)(。2016年)(初)(我)(们)(提)(出)(“休)(养)(生)(息)(,向)(低)(估)(值)(有)(业)(绩)(的)(方)(向)(抱)(团)(”,2017年)(初)(以)(来)(提)(出)(“从)(流)(动)(性)(驱)(动)(到)(业)(绩)(驱)(动)(,买)(就)(买)(龙)(头)(”。
部)(分)(三)(四)(线)(城)(市)(房)(价)(补)(涨)(,主)(要)(是)(库)(存)(去)(化)(充)(分)(、大)(都)(市)(圈)(外)(溢)(和)(农)(民)(工)(返)(乡)(购)(房)(需)(求)(。
展)(望)(未)(来)(,我)(们)(赚)(不)(到)(货)(币)(超)(发)(的)(快)(钱)(,但)(是)(货)(币)(收)(紧)(导)(致)(资)(产)(价)(格)(调)(整)(,在)(长)(期)(看)(部)(分)(资)(产)(具)(备)(了)(配)(置)(价)(值)(,可)(以)(赚)(到)(估)(值)(修)(复)(和)(业)(绩)(增)(长)(的)(慢)(钱)(:债)(市)(具)(备)(了)(配)(置)(价)(值)(,部)(分)(股)(票)(开)(始)(变)(得)(没)(那)(么)(贵)(了)(存)(在)(结)(构)(性)(行)(情)(,房)(地)(产)(调)(控)(提)(供)(了)(上)(车)(机)(会)(。
债)(市)(配)(置)(价)(值)(凸)(显)(,我)(们)(可)(能)(正)(站)(在)(债)(市)(新)(一)(轮)(牛)(市)(的)(前)(夜)(。过)(去)(我)(们)(基)(于)(滞)(涨)(和)(去)(杠)(杆)(提)(示)(债)(券)(市)(场)(的)(风)(险)(,在)(2017年)(5月)(下)(旬)(开)(始)(调)(整)(观)(点)(:“经)(济)(通)(胀)(回)(调)(提)(供)(了)(基)(本)(面)(支)(撑)(,债)(市)(开)(始)(跌)(出)(价)(值)(,债)(市)(配)(置)(价)(值)(凸)(显)(”。6月)(我)(们)(对)(债)(券)(市)(场)(的)(观)(点)(转)(向)(积)(极)(:我)(们)(可)(能)(正)(站)(在)(新)(一)(轮)(债)(市)(牛)(市)(的)(前)(夜)(,建)(议)(哑)(铃)(型)(配)(置)(。债)(券)(市)(场)(的)(熊)(牛)(之)(界)(存)(在)(三)(大)(信)(号)(:经)(济)(名)(义)(增)(长)(率)(见)(顶)(、市)(场)(换)(手)(率)(明)(显)(上)(升)(以)(及)(债)(券)(回)(购)(利)(率)(期)(限)(利)(差)(回)(到)(历)(史)(高)(位)(。随)(着)(经)(济)(二)(次)(探)(底)(、再)(通)(缩)(、货)(币)(政)(策)(从)(收)(紧)(转)(向)(不)(松)(不)(紧)(,债)(市)(正)(开)(始)(逐)(步)(具)(备)(配)(置)(价)(值)(。
股)(市)(震)(荡)(分)(化)(业)(绩)(为)(王)(。流)(动)(性)(退)(潮)(和)(风)(险)(偏)(好)(降)(低)(后)(,市)(场)(在)(拥)(抱)(流)(动)(性)(、确)(定)(性)(和)(业)(绩)(。供)(给)(出)(清)(,剩)(者)(为)(王)(,赢)(者)(通)(吃)(,新)(5%比)(旧)(8%好)(,市)(场)(风)(格)(继)(续)(在)(低)(估)(值)(有)(业)(绩)(行)(业)(龙)(头)(的)(方)(向)(。2014-2015年)(行)(情)(经)(历)(了)(三)(波)(:有)(业)(绩)(有)(故)(事)(—没)(业)(绩)(有)(故)(事)(—既)(没)(业)(绩)(也)(没)(故)(事)(。2016年)(初)(以)(来)(震)(荡)(市)(下)(的)(结)(构)(性)(行)(情)(正)(步)(入)(第)(二)(阶)(段)(:从)(低)(估)(值)(有)(业)(绩)(行)(业)(龙)(头)(到)(估)(值)(业)(绩)(基)(本)(匹)(配)(的)(行)(业)(寡)(头)(,从)(消)(费)(向)(金)(融)(、周)(期)(、部)(分)(成)(长)(行)(业)(以)(及)(二)(线)(蓝)(筹)(扩)(散)(。未)(来)(变)(盘)(可)(能)(来)(自)(货)(币)(政)(策)(转)(向)(、监)(管)(高)(压)(退)(潮)(和)(改)(革)(预)(期)(重)(启)(。
在)(土)(地)(财)(政)(制)(度)(环)(境)(下)(,大)(都)(市)(圈)(房)(子)(相)(对)(具)(有)(长)(期)(配)(置)(价)(值)(。房)(地)(产)(长)(期)(看)(人)(口)(、中)(期)(看)(土)(地)(、短)(期)(看)(金)(融)(。2015年)(看)(空)(股)(市)(之)(后)(提)(出)(“一)(线)(房)(价)(翻)(一)(倍)(”,2016年)(9月)(份)(提)(出)(“这)(一)(轮)(房)(价)(上)(涨)(接)(近)(尾)(声)(”,预)(计)(短)(周)(期)(或)(调)(整)(到)(2018年)(。如)(果)(土)(地)(财)(政)(制)(度)(不)(改)(革)(,每)(次)(通)(过)(行)(政)(手)(段)(冰)(冻)(房)(地)(产)(销)(售)(和)(土)(地)(市)(场)(,调)(控)(时)(间)(超)(过)(1-2年)(,地)(方)(财)(政)(往)(往)(扛)(不)(住)(,然)(后)(各)(种)(小)(动)(作)(放)(松)(。当)(前)(房)(地)(产)(调)(控)(主)(要)(靠)(限)(购)(限)(贷)(的)(行)(政)(手)(段)(,而)(库)(存)(去)(化)(又)(十)(分)(充)(分)(,如)(果)(2018年)(底)(之)(前)(土)(地)(供)(应)(不)(理)(想)(、房)(产)(税)(推)(不)(出)(来)(,2019-2020年)(房)(价)(存)(在)(报)(复)(性)(上)(涨)(的)(风)(险)(,而)(这)(次)(调)(控)(提)(供)(了)(上)(车)(的)(机)(会)(。因)(此)(,未)(来)(如)(果)(以)(人)(地)(挂)(钩)(、供)(地)(和)(房)(产)(税)(为)(主)(的)(长)(效)(机)(制)(能)(够)(建)(立)(起)(来)(,房)(地)(产)(市)(场)(有)(望)(持)(续)(健)(康)(发)(展)(。
下)(海)(三)(年)(来)(,提)(出)(过)(一)(些)(判)(断)(:新)(5%比)(旧)(8%好)(、对)(熊)(市)(的)(最)(后)(一)(战)(、5000点)(不)(是)(梦)(、改)(革)(牛)(、水)(牛)(、海)(拔)(已)(高)(风)(大)(慢)(走)(、我)(理)(性)(了)(市)(场)(疯)(了)(、一)(线)(房)(价)(翻)(一)(倍)(、经)(济)(L型)(、向)(低)(估)(值)(有)(业)(绩)(的)(方)(向)(抱)(团)(、新)(周)(期)(、我)(们)(正)(站)(在)(新)(一)(轮)(债)(券)(牛)(市)(的)(前)(夜)(。
有)(些)(观)(点)(因)(为)(与)(众)(不)(同)(经)(常)(引)(起)(一)(些)(讨)(论)(,但)(从)(研)(究)(本)(身)(,始)(终)(追)(求)(独)(立)(客)(观)(,真)(诚)(地)(面)(对)(自)(己)(的)(内)(心)(。险)(夷)(原)(不)(滞)(胸)(中)(,何)(异)(浮)(云)(过)(太)(空)(。夜)(静)(海)(涛)(三)(万)(里)(,月)(明)(飞)(锡)(下)(天)(风)(。一)(切)(纷)(嚣)(俗)(染)(不)(足)(以)(累)(其)(心)(,真)(有)(凤)(凰)(翔)(于)(千)(仞)(之)(意)(。此)(心)(光)(明)(,夫)(复)(何)(言)(。返)(回)(搜)(狐)(,查)(看)(更)(多)(责)(任)(编)(辑)(:
声)(明)(:该)(文)(观)(点)(仅)(代)(表)(作)(者)(本)(人)(,搜)(狐)(号)(系)(信)(息)(发)(布)(平)(台)(,搜)(狐)(仅)(提)(供)(信)(息)(存)(储)(空)(间)(服)(务)(。
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