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房价谁决定:房价惯性推动房价上涨

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2018年10月19日 13:37:52
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(  [房)(价)(惯)(性)(、地)(价)(、供)(需)(关)(系)(是)(影)(响)(房)(价)(的)(主)(要)(因)(素)(,其)(中)(房)(价)(自)(身)(的)(贡)(献)(度)(最)(大)(,达)(到)(70%;其)(次)(是)(销)(竣)(比)(对)(房)(价)(的)(影)(响)(,再)(就)(是)(地)(价)(,两)(者)(加)(起)(来)(对)(房)(价)(波)(动)(的)(贡)(献)(达)(到)(近)(30%,但)(地)(价)(的)(贡)(献)(不)(足)(10%]
  一)(套)(房)(子)(究)(竟)(该)(值)(多)(少)(钱)(?
  如)(果)(是)(场)(拍)(卖)(,且)(无)(底)(价)(,第)(一)(个)(出)(价)(的)(人)(举)(出)(1元)(的)(牌)(子)(也)(可)(以)(;如)(果)(是)(个)(农)(民)(工)(,会)(盘)(算)(下)(这)(房)(子)(在)(农)(村)(建)(要)(花)(多)(少)(钱)(;如)(果)(是)(个)(中)(介)(,会)(把)(户)(型)(、区)(域)(说)(得)(天)(花)(乱)(坠)(再)(估)(出)(个)(高)(价)(;如)(果)(是)(个)(土)(豪)(,眼)(睛)(眨)(也)(不)(眨)(,就)(把)(支)(票)(砸)(过)(来)(了)(……
  可)(见)(,不)(同)(的)(个)(体)(,经)(济)(基)(础)(不)(一)(样)(,角)(色)(不)(一)(样)(,处)(在)(不)(同)(的)(情)(境)(中)(,都)(会)(报)(出)(不)(同)(的)(价)(格)(。最)(终)(,众)(多)(的)(买)(卖)(双)(方)(围)(绕)(供)(需)(讨)(价)(还)(价)(,形)(成)(一)(个)(市)(场)(,最)(终)(形)(成)(一)(个)(基)(准)(价)(格)(。
  房)(子)(本)(只)(是)(钢)(筋)(水)(泥)(加)(砖)(头)(,但)(在)(市)(场)(经)(济)(中)(,房)(子)(并)(不)(只)(是)(房)(子)(。价)(格)(很)(容)(易)(形)(成)(,但)(房)(子)(到)(底)(是)(如)(何)(定)(价)(的)(呢)(?第)(一)(财)(经)(日)(报)(《财)(商)(》(微)(信)(号)(:caishang02)认)(为)(,回)(答)(此)(问)(题)(,必)(须)(从)(房)(地)(产)(的)(属)(性)(这)(一)(源)(头)(出)(发)(。
  房)(地)(产)(区)(别)(于)(一)(般)(物)(品)(,具)(备)(两)(重)(属)(性)(,即)(商)(品)(属)(性)(和)(资)(产)(属)(性)(。其)(中)(,商)(品)(属)(性)(还)(可)(以)(再)(细)(分)(,一)(是)(自)(然)(属)(性)(,即)(房)(子)(用)(来)(住)(,体)(现)(出)(使)(用)(价)(值)(;二)(是)(社)(会)(属)(性)(,即)(房)(子)(可)(以)(买)(卖)(和)(出)(租)(,体)(现)(为)(价)(值)(。
  商)(品)(属)(性)(之)(一)(:成)(本)(定)(价)(是)(个)(梦)(
  倘)(若)(按)(马)(克)(思)(的)(劳)(动)(价)(值)(论)(来)(给)(房)(地)(产)(定)(价)(,那)(么)(“天)(下)(寒)(士)(”将)(“俱)(欢)(颜)(”了)(。
  因)(为)(劳)(动)(价)(值)(论)(要)(旨)(是)(凝)(结)(在)(物)(品)(中)(的)(劳)(动)(,价)(值)(围)(绕)(使)(用)(价)(值)(。简)(化)(为)(成)(本)(定)(价)(,也)(就)(是)(房)(价)(以)(钢)(筋)(水)(泥)(加)(砖)(头)(的)(价)(格)(来)(计)(算)(。
  但)(这)(样)(的)(话)(,即)(便)(北)(上)(广)(深)(一)(线)(城)(市)(新)(建)(住)(宅)(的)(建)(筑)(安)(装)(成)(本)(最)(高)(也)(不)(超)(过)(2000元)(/平)(方)(米)(,而)(且)(这)(些)(年)(来)(增)(幅)(并)(不)(明)(显)(,至)(于)(中)(西)(部)(就)(更)(低)(了)(。当)(然)(还)(有)(建)(房)(子)(的)(土)(地)(,好)(比)(生)(产)(面)(包)(的)(面)(粉)(。
  不)(过)(,即)(便)(算)(上)(地)(价)(、开)(发)(费)(用)(等)(,开)(发)(商)(合)(理)(的)(利)(润)(率)(,房)(价)(也)(不)(会)(高)(到)(哪)(里)(去)(,房)(地)(产)(就)(不)(会)(成)(为)(一)(个)(主)(要)(的)(社)(会)(矛)(盾)(了)(。
  但)(作)(为)(一)(种)(人)(类)(生)(活)(必)(需)(品)(,商)(品)(住)(宅)(的)(价)(格)(真)(的)(可)(以)(超)(出)(成)(本)(很)(多)(倍)(,像)(奢)(侈)(品)(一)(样)(吗)(?显)(然)(不)(是)(,除)(非)(稀)(有)(的)(北)(京)(四)(合)(院)(、上)(海)(市)(区)(的)(民)(国)(别)(墅)(。
  商)(品)(属)(性)(之)(二)(:
  提)(折)(旧)(就)(是)(书)(呆)(子)(
  如)(果)(用)(现)(代)(经)(济)(学)(的)(供)(求)(关)(系)(来)(给)(房)(地)(产)(定)(价)(,就)(会)(发)(现)(供)(不)(应)(求)(之)(时)(,房)(价)(就)(会)(上)(涨)(,供)(过)(于)(求)(之)(时)(,房)(价)(就)(会)(下)(跌)(。
  现)(实)(中)(,商)(品)(住)(宅)(供)(给)(加)(大)(或)(者)(库)(存)(增)(加)(确)(实)(会)(影)(响)(到)(房)(价)(,譬)(如)(2014年)(3月)(末)(,杭)(州)(为)(了)(托)(市)(,当)(地)(房)(地)(产)(主)(管)(部)(门)(竟)(然)(修)(改)(了)(房)(屋)(的)(库)(存)(数)(量)(,从)(11万)(套)(减)(少)(到)(7万)(套)(。
  只)(是)(,理)(论)(毕)(竟)(只)(是)(理)(论)(,现)(实)(中)(还)(要)(更)(复)(杂)(,每)(一)(套)(房)(子)(都)(有)(大)(小)(、户)(型)(差)(异)(,而)(商)(品)(住)(宅)(的)(开)(发)(售)(卖)(周)(期)(较)(长)(,很)(难)(像)(教)(科)(书)(上)(一)(般)(商)(品)(那)(样)(迅)(速)(出)(清)(。因)(而)(供)(需)(关)(系)(只)(是)(决)(定)(房)(价)(的)(一)(个)(重)(要)(要)(素)(,但)(不)(是)(最)(重)(要)(的)(。
  也)(有)(人)(会)(用)(租)(金)(回)(报)(率)(来)(测)(算)(房)(价)(,但)(实)(际)(上)(这)(有)(点)(类)(似)(鸡)(和)(蛋)(的)(关)(系)(,上)(海)(商)(品)(住)(宅)(一)(般)(租)(金)(回)(报)(在)(1%~2%,假)(如)(合)(理)(值)(在)(5%~8%,又)(怎)(么)(能)(说)(是)(作)(为)(分)(子)(的)(租)(金)(低)(了)(,还)(是)(作)(为)(分)(母)(的)(房)(价)(高)(了)(呢)(?
  此)(外)(,既)(然)(是)(商)(品)(,房)(屋)(作)(为)(固)(定)(资)(产)(,那)(么)(房)(价)(估)(算)(是)(要)(计)(算)(折)(旧)(的)(,但)(在)(现)(实)(中)(,提)(折)(旧)(势)(必)(要)(被)(笑)(话)(为)(书)(呆)(子)(。
  所)(以)(,用)(商)(品)(属)(性)(来)(分)(析)(房)(价)(还)(是)(有)(些)(苍)(白)(的)(。
  资)(产)(属)(性)(:
  理)(论)(很)(简)(单)(实)(际)(很)(复)(杂)(
  既)(然)(商)(品)(属)(性)(说)(服)(力)(不)(济)(,我)(们)(来)(把)(房)(子)(看)(为)(一)(种)(资)(产)(来)(定)(价)(。
  资)(产)(的)(价)(格)(是)(如)(何)(决)(定)(呢)(?比)(物)(品)(、商)(品)(定)(价)(分)(析)(起)(来)(都)(要)(复)(杂)(得)(多)(,尽)(管)(基)(本)(思)(想)(就)(一)(句)(话)(—资)(产)(价)(格)(等)(于)(未)(来)(收)(益)(的)(预)(期)(折)(现)(,具)(体)(方)(法)(就)(是)(用)(无)(风)(险)(的)(收)(益)(率)(去)(折)(现)(资)(产)(的)(未)(来)(收)(益)(。
  资)(产)(定)(价)(方)(法)(主)(要)(有)(均)(衡)(定)(价)(和)(套)(利)(定)(价)(,理)(论)(一)(直)(在)(发)(展)(,近)(些)(年)(来)(引)(入)(行)(为)(金)(融)(学)(,但)(仍)(然)(不)(尽)(完)(美)(。
  我)(们)(先)(以)(股)(票)(定)(价)(为)(例)(,表)(象)(是)(市)(场)(上)(买)(的)(人)(与)(卖)(的)(人)(数)(量)(对)(比)(来)(决)(定)(,可)(以)(理)(解)(为)(供)(给)(和)(需)(求)(关)(系)(;但)(实)(质)(上)(,是)(基)(于)(预)(期)(收)(益)(率)(来)(定)(价)(的)(,买)(的)(人)(预)(期)(未)(来)(会)(上)(涨)(,卖)(的)(人)(则)(预)(期)(未)(来)(会)(下)(跌)(。
  那)(么)(这)(个)(预)(期)(是)(如)(何)(产)(生)(的)(呢)(?我)(们)(必)(须)(要)(引)(入)(时)(间)(框)(架)(了)(,短)(期)(可)(能)(是)(因)(为)(突)(来)(的)(利)(好)(和)(利)(差)(消)(息)(,中)(期)(可)(能)(是)(基)(于)(技)(术)(分)(析)(而)(波)(段)(操)(作)(,长)(期)(可)(能)(是)(基)(于)(股)(票)(背)(后)(的)(企)(业)(盈)(利)(改)(善)(或)(者)(行)(业)(基)(本)(面)(发)(生)(变)(化)(等)(因)(素)(。
  至)(于)(预)(期)(收)(益)(率)(的)(高)(低)(,一)(是)(要)(取)(决)(于)(无)(风)(险)(的)(收)(益)(率)(,二)(是)(取)(决)(于)(不)(确)(定)(性)(的)(程)(度)(,通)(俗)(言)(之)(即)(是)(高)(风)(险)(高)(回)(报)(。
  对)(于)(房)(地)(产)(而)(言)(,资)(产)(定)(价)(理)(论)(上)(是)(一)(样)(的)(,但)(实)(际)(上)(考)(虑)(的)(比)(股)(票)(还)(要)(复)(杂)(些)(,一)(是)(交)(易)(环)(节)(比)(股)(票)(复)(杂)(,这)(个)(无)(需)(多)(言)(;二)(是)(标)(准)(化)(程)(度)(差)(异)(,即)(前)(述)(的)(户)(型)(、位)(置)(差)(异)(等)(,三)(是)(信)(息)(不)(对)(称)(,股)(市)(信)(息)(相)(对)(充)(分)(且)(快)(速)(流)(通)(,而)(房)(地)(产)(信)(息)(不)(对)(称)(要)(严)(重)(得)(多)(;四)(是)(流)(动)(性)(弱)(于)(股)(市)(,房)(地)(产)(区)(域)(性)(划)(分)(严)(重)(,而)(股)(市)(不)(存)(在)(跨)(区)(域)(问)(题)(;五)(是)(房)(价)(定)(价)(中)(还)(涉)(及)(土)(地)(的)(资)(产)(定)(价)(;六)(是)(目)(前)(城)(市)(住)(宅)(70年)(的)(产)(权)(期)(限)(也)(在)(影)(响)(定)(价)(。
  很)(复)(杂)(吧)(,但)(在)(现)(实)(中)(,第)(一)(财)(经)(日)(报)(《财)(商)(》(微)(信)(号)(:caishang02)发)(现)(,无)(论)(是)(地)(产)(商)(卖)(新)(房)(,二)(手)(房)(买)(卖)(,定)(价)(又)(似)(乎)(没)(这)(么)(复)(杂)(。尤)(其)(是)(产)(权)(期)(限)(剩)(余)(期)(并)(不)(重)(要)(,一)(方)(面)(大)(家)(都)(想)(着)(离)(到)(期)(还)(很)(遥)(远)(,那)(是)(后)(代)(人)(的)(事)(;另)(一)(方)(面)(又)(在)(赌)(政)(府)(势)(必)(要)(延)(续)(产)(权)(期)(限)(。
  房)(价)(究)(竟)(谁)(决)(定)(?
  说)(来)(真)(让)(人)(遗)(憾)(,虽)(然)(笔)(者)(把)(房)(地)(产)(的)(定)(价)(机)(制)(简)(洁)(到)(二)(重)(性)(,但)(一)(套)(房)(子)(究)(竟)(定)(价)(多)(少)(是)(合)(适)(的)(仍)(是)(件)(困)(难)(的)(事)(。那)(好)(,就)(把)(这)(个)(问)(题)(抛)(给)(市)(场)(去)(解)(决)(吧)(,市)(场)(博)(弈)(自)(然)(产)(生)(价)(格)(,但)(这)(个)(价)(格)(又)(是)(不)(均)(衡)(的)(,于)(是)(价)(格)(起)(伏)(波)(动)(,产)(生)(了)(复)(苏)(-繁)(荣)(-衰)(退)(-萧)(条)(的)(周)(期)(循)(环)(。
  最)(后)(,说)(点)(有)(趣)(的)(,笔)(者)(翻)(了)(很)(多)(学)(术)(论)(文)(,有)(个)(研)(究)(可)(供)(参)(考)(。重)(庆)(工)(商)(大)(学)(管)(理)(学)(院)(副)(教)(授)(黄)(居)(林)(在)(一)(篇)(论)(文)(中)(模)(型)(检)(验)(后)(指)(出)(,“房)(价)(惯)(性)(”及)(供)(求)(失)(衡)((销)(竣)(比)()是)(房)(价)(上)(涨)(的)(关)(键)(因)(素)(。
  什)(么)(是)(房)(价)(惯)(性)(?形)(成)(房)(价)(惯)(性)(的)(因)(素)(很)(多)(,包)(括)(:对)(房)(价)(上)(涨)(的)(一)(致)(预)(期)(及)(对)(政)(策)(的)(信)(心)(不)(足)(,存)(在)(不)(断)(诱)(发)(房)(价)(上)(涨)(的)(诸)(多)(刺)(激)(因)(素)(,存)(在)(政)(府)(和)(开)(发)(商)(等)(推)(动)(房)(价)(、地)(价)(上)(涨)(的)(动)(力)(机)(制)(等)(。
  似)(乎)(有)(点)(难)(理)(解)(,我)(们)(看)(下)(这)(篇)(论)(文)(的)(论)(证)(细)(节)(:如)(果)(地)(价)(走)(高)(,房)(价)(将)(得)(到)(快)(速)(响)(应)(,并)(在)(第)(七)(季)(度)(达)(到)(最)(高)(点)(,即)(地)(价)(对)(房)(价)(的)(冲)(击)(具)(有)(显)(著)(的)(促)(进)(作)(用)(和)(较)(长)(的)(持)(续)(效)(应)(。此)(外)(,房)(价)(对)(来)(自)(销)(竣)(比)(的)(冲)(击)(在)(前)(几)(季)(度)(也)(快)(速)(响)(应)(,并)(在)(第)(六)(季)(度)(达)(到)(最)(大)(。
  总)(而)(言)(之)(,房)(价)(惯)(性)(、地)(价)(、供)(需)(关)(系)(是)(影)(响)(房)(价)(的)(主)(要)(因)(素)(,其)(中)(房)(价)(自)(身)(的)(贡)(献)(度)(最)(大)(,达)(到)(70%;其)(次)(是)(销)(竣)(比)(对)(房)(价)(的)(影)(响)(,再)(就)(是)(地)(价)(,两)(者)(加)(起)(来)(对)(房)(价)(波)(动)(的)(贡)(献)(达)(到)(近)(30%,但)(地)(价)(的)(贡)(献)(不)(足)(10%。至)(于)(前)(文)(所)(谈)(的)(商)(品)(属)(性)(中)(的)(房)(屋)(造)(价)(对)(房)(价)(的)(影)(响)(微)(乎)(其)(微)(。
  房)(价)(惯)(性)(推)(动)(房)(价)(上)(涨)(,虽)(然)(这)(听)(起)(来)(有)(点)(像)(拉)(着)(自)(己)(的)(头)(发)(离)(开)(地)(面)(一)(样)(难)(以)(理)(解)(,但)(低)(头)(一)(想)(,好)(比)(股)(价)(,强)(者)(恒)(强)(,路)(径)(依)(赖)(,这)(一)(切)(不)(正)(是)(人)(的)(动)(物)(精)(神)(所)(推)(动)(的)(吗)(?换)(作)(房)(价)(,难)(道)(不)(也)(是)(这)(样)(吗)(?
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