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分析称四季度风险或爆发

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2018年12月10日 03:30:51
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(  中)(国)(房)(地)(产)(行)(业)(在)(2016年)(上)(半)(年)(的)(发)(展)(速)(度)(远)(超)(历)(史)(同)(期)(,从)(上)(市)(房)(企)(已)(经)(公)(布)(的)(半)(年)(度)(业)(绩)(来)(看)(,120家)(企)(业)(半)(年)(报)(合)(计)(2016年)(上)(半)(年)(的)(营)(业)(收)(入)(为)(5556.8亿)(相)(比)(2015年)(同)(期)(的)(4043亿)(涨)(幅)(高)(达)(37.44%。
  而)(在)(规)(模)(效)(应)(下)(,房)(地)(产)(企)(业)(的)(利)(润)(率)(继)(续)(走)(低)(,从)(2015年)(同)(期)(的)(9.8%继)(续)(下)(降)(至)(目)(前)(的)(8.1%,120家)(房)(企)(的)(总)(利)(润)(尚)(不)(及)(建)(行)(的)(三)(分)(之)(一)(。与)(此)(同)(时)(,对)(于)(“缺)(货)((土)(地)()”的)(恐)(惧)(让)(房)(地)(产)(商)(不)(惜)(一)(切)(代)(价)(的)(高)(价)(拿)(地)(,使)(得)(其)(负)(债)(额)(不)(断)(上)(升)(。业)(内)(人)(士)(分)(析)(,随)(着)(银)(行)(对)(于)(风)(险)(控)(制)(的)(加)(强)(以)(及)(房)(企)(融)(资)(渠)(道)(的)(收)(紧)(,高)(价)(土)(地)(将)(成)(为)(地)(产)(商)(生)(存)(发)(展)(的)(最)(大)(风)(险)(要)(素)(。
大)(型)(房)(企)(迅)(速)(扩)(张)(,过)(千)(亿)(的)(超)(过)(四)(家)(
  整)(个)(上)(半)(年)(,品)(牌)(房)(地)(产)(行)(业)(的)(规)(模)(在)(不)(断)(膨)(胀)(,千)(亿)(规)(模)(的)(房)(企)(数)(量)(不)(断)(上)(升)(。
  2016年)(上)(半)(年)(,万)(科)(销)(售)(面)(积)(达)(1409.0平)(方)(米)(,同)(比)(增)(长)(55.8%,销)(售)(金)(额)(为)(1900.8亿)(元)(,同)(比)(增)(长)(69.9%。今)(年)(上)(半)(年)(,万)(科)(销)(售)(金)(额)(历)(时)(仅)(118天)(即)(突)(破)(1000亿)(大)(关)(,比)(去)(年)(同)(期)(足)(足)(缩)(短)(了)(59天)(,达)(到)(历)(史)(最)(短)(水)(平)(。
  恒)(大)(集)(团)((03333.hk)8月)(30日)(发)(布)(业)(绩)(,上)(半)(年)(累)(计)(合)(约)(销)(售)(金)(额)(约)(达)(人)(民)(币)(1,417.8亿)(元)(,累)(计)(合)(约)(销)(售)(面)(积)(1,660.5万)(平)(方)(米)(。此)(外)(,2016年)(上)(半)(年)(保)(利)(地)(产)(销)(售)(额)(达)(到)(1280亿)(。龙)(湖)(地)(产)((00960.hk)2016年)(上)(半)(年)(签)(约)(额)(同)(比)(增)(长)(78.4%至)(385.9亿)(元)(。
  澎)(湃)(新)(闻)(统)(计)(显)(示)(,120家)(企)(业)(半)(年)(报)(合)(计)(2016年)(上)(半)(年)(的)(营)(业)(收)(入)(为)(5556.8亿)(相)(比)(2015年)(同)(期)(的)(4043亿)(涨)(幅)(高)(达)(37.44%。
  进)(入)(下)(半)(年)(,房)(企)(纷)(纷)(宣)(布)(上)(调)(销)(售)(目)(标)(。
  恒)(大)(宣)(布)(将)(全)(年)(的)(销)(售)(目)(标)(提)(升)(至)(3000亿)(元)(,较)(原)(先)(的)(2000亿)(元)(,上)(调)(50%。
  龙)(湖)(上)(调)(2016年)(销)(售)(目)(标)(至)(750亿)(元)(,上)(调)(幅)(度)(21%。融)(创)(中)(国)(宣)(布)(全)(年)(目)(标)(上)(调)(37%至)(1100亿)(元)(。
  此)(外)(,包)(括)(新)(城)(、碧)(桂)(园)(、旭)(辉)(等)(多)(家)(房)(地)(产)(上)(市)(公)(司)(,也)(上)(调)(了)(销)(售)(目)(标)(。整)(体)(看)(绝)(大)(部)(分)(企)(业)(均)(可)(以)(提)(前)(完)(成)(年)(度)(任)(务)(。
  120家)(房)(企)(半)(年)(利)(率)(不)(及)(建)(行)(1/3
  虽)(然)(销)(售)(规)(模)(和)(营)(业)(收)(入)(在)(上)(半)(年)(出)(现)(暴)(增)(,但)(是)(利)(润)(的)(增)(幅)(却)(远)(低)(于)(营)(收)(,部)(分)(企)(业)(还)(出)(现)(亏)(损)(。
  信)(达)(地)(产)((600657)2016年)(上)(半)(年)(净)(利)(润)(大)(跌)(45%,毛)(利)(率)(同)(比)(减)(少)(12%。
  保)(利)(置)(业)((00119,hk)上)(半)(年)(实)(现)(净)(利)(润)(1.46亿)(港)(元)(,同)(比)(下)(跌)(高)(达)(53.98%;股)(东)(应)(占)(盈)(利)(为)(0.59亿)(港)(元)(,同)(比)(下)(跌)(43%。
  保)(利)(地)(产)((600048)2016年)(上)(半)(实)(现)(净)(利)(润)(49.6亿)(元)(,同)(增)(仅)(0.21%。
  中)(原)(地)(产)(研)(究)(中)(心)(统)(计)(数)(据)(显)(示)(,已)(公)(布)(的)(120家)(房)(企)(,合)(计)(2016年)(上)(半)(年)(净)(利)(润)(为)(452.16亿)(。
  这)(意)(味)(着)(,120家)(上)(市)(房)(企)(的)(利)(润)(总)(额)(仅)(相)(当)(于)(建)(设)(银)(行)(一)(家)(利)(润)(的)(1/3,建)(设)(银)(行)(2016年)(上)(半)(年)(净)(利)(润)(1334亿)(、农)(业)(银)(行)(1051.48亿)(、中)(国)(平)(安)(407.76亿)(。
  恒)(大)(地)(产)(物)(业)(发)(展)(及)(其)(他)(业)(务)(核)(心)(业)(务)(利)(润)(1为)(人)(民)(币)(78.1亿)(元)(。核)(心)(业)(务)(利)(润)(率)(仅)(8.9%。
  这)(是)(房)(地)(产)(净)(利)(润)(率)(的)(平)(均)(水)(平)(,2016年)(上)(半)(年)(,120家)(房)(企)(的)(净)(利)(润)(率)(只)(有)(8.1%,较)(2015年)(同)(期)(9.8%利)(润)(率)(继)(续)(走)(低)(。
  某)(不)(愿)(具)(名)(的)(房)(企)(高)(层)(表)(示)(,利)(润)(下)(滑)(是)(仅)(今)(年)(房)(地)(产)(行)(业)(的)(普)(遍)(现)(象)(,原)(因)(是)(土)(地)(成)(本)(不)(断)(走)(高)(,三)(四)(线)(城)(市)(依)(然)(处)(于)(去)(库)(存)(周)(期)(,房)(企)(盈)(利)(空)(间)(下)(滑)(。
  中)(原)(地)(产)(首)(席)(分)(析)(师)(张)(大)(伟)(分)(析)(认)(为)(虽)(然)(2016年)(房)(企)(的)(资)(金)(成)(本)(明)(显)(下)(调)(,但)(土)(地)(成)(本)(明)(显)(上)(涨)(,这)(些)(都)(影)(响)(了)(利)(润)(率)(。此)(外)(,上)(半)(年)(市)(场)(成)(交)(爆)(发)(,但)(是)(尚)(未)(进)(入)(结)(算)(,进)(入)(上)(半)(年)(结)(算)(的)(主)(要)(是)(2015年)(销)(售)(的)(产)(品)(,结)(算)(的)(滞)(后)(也)(影)(响)(了)(利)(润)(计)(入)(。
负)(债)(率)(整)(体)(上)(升)(
  上)(半)(年)(的)(数)(据)(也)(显)(示)(,本)(来)(就)(对)(资)(金)(依)(赖)(度)(极)(其)(高)(的)(房)(企)(,负)(债)(率)(还)(在)(不)(断)(走)(高)(。
  万)(得)(资)(讯)(数)(据)(显)(示)(,截)(至)(目)(前)(,已)(发)(布)(中)(报)(的)(A股)(房)(企)(资)(产)(负)(债)(率)(达)(65.68%,负)(债)(总)(额)(高)(达)(3.74万)(亿)(元)(,而)(如)(果)(加)(上)(港)(股)(公)(司)(,则)(这)(一)(数)(字)(则)(远)(超)(4万)(亿)(元)(。
  万)(科)(为)(例)(,上)(半)(年)(资)(产)(负)(债)(率)(则)(由)(77.70%上)(升)(至)(80.60%。
  融)(信)(中)(国)((03301.hk)虽)(然)(降)(低)(了)(负)(债)(率)(,但)(是)(上)(半)(年)(负)(债)(率)(依)(然)(高)(达)(89.8%。
  融)(创)(公)(告)(内)(容)(显)(示)(,目)(前)(公)(司)(现)(金)(余)(额)(为)(401.47亿)(元)(,负)(债)(总)(额)(约)(为)(1279亿)(元)(,净)(负)(债)(率)(为)(85.1%,而)(上)(一)(期)((截)(至)(2015年)(12月)(31日)()公)(司)(的)(净)(负)(债)(率)(是)(75.9%。
  负)(债)(率)(走)(高)(,和)(房)(企)(大)(手)(笔)(拿)(地)(不)(无)(关)(系)(。
  恒)(大)(8月)(30日)(公)(布)(的)(业)(绩)(显)(示)(,截)(至)(上)(半)(年)(,拿)(地)(总)(额)(超)(过)(800亿)(元)(。
  中)(原)(地)(产)(数)(据)(显)(示)(,融)(创)(拿)(地)(总)(额)(高)(达)(478.69亿)(元)(,较)(去)(年)(同)(期)(的)(73.13亿)(元)(,大)(幅)(增)(长)(554%。绿)(地)(拿)(地)(总)(额)(348亿)(元)(,较)(去)(年)(同)(期)(也)(增)(长)(55%。融)(信)(更)(是)(改)(变)(其)(去)(年)(同)(期)(一)(幅)(未)(拿)(的)(情)(况)(,拿)(地)(总)(额)(达)(到)(345亿)(元)(。此)(外)(,碧)(桂)(园)(、恒)(大)(、万)(科)(、保)(利)(拿)(地)(资)(金)(也)(纷)(纷)(超)(过)(300亿)(元)(。
  高)(价)(地)(是)(未)(来)(最)(大)(风)(险)(
  恒)(大)(集)(团)(总)(裁)(夏)(海)(钧)(在)(8月)(30日)(发)(布)(会)(上)(,针)(对)(高)(负)(债)(的)(问)(题)(也)(表)(示)(,高)(负)(债)(率)(是)(因)(为)(土)(地)(储)(备)(多)(导)(致)(的)(,面)(粉)(储)(备)(够)(了)(,为)(企)(业)(的)(规)(模)(增)(长)(提)(供)(了)(基)(础)(,未)(来)(随)(着)(业)(绩)(增)(长)(,负)(债)(率)(会)(逐)(步)(降)(低)(。
  与)(开)(发)(商)(向)(澎)(湃)(新)(闻)(表)(示)(,房)(企)(疯)(狂)(拿)(地)(,和)(上)(半)(年)(销)(售)(量)(暴)(增)(有)(关)(,为)(了)(保)(证)(后)(续)(持)(续)(的)(销)(售)(规)(模)(,房)(企)(卖)(多)(少)(地)(块)(,也)(要)(同)(时)(补)(充)(地)(块)(,但)(是)(也)(二)(线)(城)(市)(土)(地)(供)(应)(稀)(缺)(,导)(致)(房)(企)(在)(土)(地)(市)(场)(集)(中)(拿)(地)(,导)(致)(投)(资)(金)(额)(高)(。
  另)(有)(房)(企)(合)(伙)(人)(透)(露)(,目)(前)(房)(企)(拿)(地)(是)(因)(为)(资)(产)(慌)(,有)(些)(企)(业)(盲)(目)(追)(高)(拿)(地)(。但)(是)(下)(半)(年)(资)(金)(不)(会)(再)(如)(上)(半)(年)(宽)(松)(,且)(进)(入)(调)(控)(周)(期)(,比)(如)(不)(少)(银)(行)(停)(止)(介)(入)(2015年)(后)(的)(高)(价)(地)(,缩)(短)(开)(发)(贷)(款)(周)(期)(,进)(一)(步)(限)(购)(,这)(些)(政)(策)(如)(果)(密)(集)(出)(台)(,必)(然)(对)(一)(些)(资)(金)(链)(紧)(张)(的)(企)(业)(造)(成)(影)(响)(,出)(现)(风)(险)(。
  张)(大)(伟)(称)(,高)(价)(地)(是)(未)(来)(最)(大)(的)(风)(险)(,一)(线)(城)(市)(成)(交)(已)(经)(开)(始)(放)(缓)(,部)(分)(热)(点)(二)(线)(城)(市)(成)(交)(火)(热)(,房)(价)(地)(价)(领)(涨)(。预)(期)(下)(半)(年)(,房)(地)(产)(调)(控)(继)(续)(因)(城)(施)(策)(,升)(级)(到)(一)(城)(一)(策)(,一)(旦)(信)(贷)(政)(策)(宽)(松)(不)(能)(持)(续)(,下)(半)(年)(,特)(别)(是)(四)(季)(度)(房)(地)(产)(市)(场)(的)(风)(险)(可)(能)(爆)(发)(。
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