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“通俄门”再传劲爆消息美元急跌

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2018年12月12日 22:15:13
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(原)(标)(题)(:“通)(俄)(门)(”再)(传)(劲)(爆)(消)(息)(美)(元)(急)(跌)(真)(摔)(还)(是)(假)(跌)(就)(看)(这)(两)(天)(!
FX168财)(经)(报)(社)((香)(港)()讯)(周)(三)((8月)(22日)()晚)(间)(,美)(国)(总)(统)(特)(朗)(普)(前)(私)(人)(律)(师)(科)(恩)((MichaelCohen)的)(律)(师)(LannyDavis表)(示)(,科)(恩)(已)(经)(承)(认)(与)(俄)(罗)(斯)(勾)(结)(,消)(息)(传)(来)(之)(后)(,美)(元)(跌)(破)(95关)(口)(,现)(货)(黄)(金)(则)(击)(穿)(1200美)(元)(/盎)(司)(大)(关)(。眼)(下)(,市)(场)(将)(目)(光)(转)(向)(稍)(晚)(出)(炉)(的)(美)(联)(储)(会)(议)(纪)(要)(以)(及)(杰)(克)(逊)(霍)(尔)(央)(行)(年)(会)(,有)(分)(析)(指)(出)(,美)(元)(是)(真)(摔)(还)(是)(假)(跌)(就)(看)(这)(两)(天)(。
“通)(俄)(门)(”再)(曝)(劲)(爆)(消)(息)(美)(元)(失)(守)(95关)(口)(黄)(金)(击)(穿)(千)(二)(大)(关)(
周)(三)(晚)(间)(,美)(元)(指)(数)(短)(线)(急)(跌)(,击)(破)(95关)(口)(,最)(低)(刷)(新)(逾)(两)(周)(以)(来)(的)(低)(位)(94.93,为)(8月)(6日)(以)(来)(新)(低)(。
(美)(元)(指)(数)(30分)(钟)(走)(势)(图)(来)(源)(:FX168财)(经)(网)()
一)(位)(汇)(市)(专)(家)(表)(示)(,美)(元)(上)(涨)(的)(最)(好)(日)(子)(已)(经)(过)(去)(。蓝)(线)(期)(货)((BlueLineFutures)总)(裁)(BillBaruch表)(示)(,美)(元)(涨)(势)(一)(直)(处)(于)(火)(热)(状)(态)(,但)(上)(涨)(的)(日)(子)(可)(能)(已)(经)(不)(多)(了)(。
(来)(源)(:CNBC、FX168财)(经)(网)()
Baruch称)(,美)(元)(指)(数)(自)(2月)(低)(点)(以)(来)(已)(经)(飙)(升)(近)(8%,但)(我)(们)(认)(为)(已)(经)(看)(到)(了)(2018年)(的)(顶)(部)(。
从)(技)(术)(角)(度)(来)(看)(,美)(元)(走)(势)(也)(不)(容)(乐)(观)(。
布)(朗)(兄)(弟)(哈)(里)(曼)(银)(行)(全)(球)(外)(汇)(策)(略)(主)(管)(MarcChandler指)(出)(,美)(元)(指)(数)(已)(经)(跌)(破)(潜)(在)(头)(肩)(顶)(形)(态)(的)(颈)(线)(水)(平)(。下)(一)(目)(标)(看)(向)(95.00附)(近)(。上)(行)(方)(面)(,95.80/96.00应)(该)(会)(成)(为)(短)(期)(顶)(部)(。
(美)(元)(指)(数)(小)(时)(图)(来)(源)(:BBH、FX168财)(经)(网)()
Chandler称)(,美)(元)(指)(数)(小)(时)(图)(上)(出)(现)(潜)(在)(的)(头)(肩)(顶)(形)(态)(,颈)(线)(位)(于)(96.00附)(近)(,沿)(着)(它)(旋)(转)(会)(产)(生)(一)(个)(接)(近)(于)(95.00的)(测)(试)(目)(标)(。
他)(进)(一)(步)(指)(出)(,停)(滞)(已)(久)(的)(多)(头)(可)(能)(把)(美)(元)(的)(进)(一)(步)(反)(弹)(视)(为)(离)(场)(观)(望)(的)(机)(会)(,95.80-96.00可)(能)(会)(限)(制)(涨)(势)(。
日)(图)(技)(术)(指)(标)(仍)(在)(警)(告)(,美)(元)(的)(下)(行)(回)(调)(尚)(未)(结)(束)(。跌)(破)(95.00一)(线)(突)(破)(可)(能)(会)(引)(发)(跌)(向)(94.00水)(平)(。
现)(货)(黄)(金)(拉)(升)(,突)(破)(1200关)(口)(,最)(高)(升)(至)(1201.40美)(元)(/盎)(司)(,创)(8月)(13日)(以)(来)(最)(高)(。
(现)(货)(黄)(金)(10分)(钟)(走)(势)(图)(来)(源)(:FX168财)(经)(网)()
虽)(然)(美)(元)(下)(跌)(和)(人)(民)(币)(复)(苏)(推)(动)(金)(价)(上)(涨)(,但)(基)(金)(持)(有)(的)(黄)(金)(净)(空)(头)(创)(历)(史)(新)(高)(,规)(模)(为)(2015年)(12月)(的)(三)(倍)(。金)(价)(需)(要)(突)(破)(前)(低)(1205美)(元)(才)(能)(进)(一)(步)(上)(扬)(。
三)(菱)(分)(析)(师)(JohnButler表)(示)(:“美)(联)(储)(在)(上)(个)(月)(开)(会)(时)(听)(上)(去)(相)(对)(强)(硬)(,前)(景)(很)(可)(能)(是)(在)(今)(年)(晚)(些)(时)(候)(再)(次)(加)(息)(,这)(在)(很)(大)(程)(度)(上)(已)(体)(现)(在)(金)(价)(之)(内)(。”
他)(表)(示)(,与)(此)(同)(时)(,美)(元)(走)(软)(将)(有)(助)(于)(黄)(金)(测)(试)(1200美)(元)(关)(键)(心)(理)(水)(平)(,帮)(助)(黄)(金)(从)(目)(前)(的)(超)(卖)(水)(平)(提)(升)(。上)(周)(,金)(价)(触)(及)(了)(逾)(一)(年)(半)(低)(点)(。
金)(价)(今)(年)(以)(来)(一)(直)(承)(压)(,自)(4月)(触)(及)(的)(1365.23美)(元)(高)(点)(已)(下)(滑)(逾)(12%,因)(美)(国)(利)(率)(上)(调)(和)(美)(元)(走)(高)(。
市)(场)(还)(期)(待)(着)(中)(美)(官)(员)(之)(间)(的)(贸)(易)(谈)(判)(,预)(计)(将)(于)(周)(三)(晚)(些)(时)(候)(在)(华)(盛)(顿)(开)(始)(。
与)(此)(同)(时)(,世)(界)(上)(最)(大)(的)(黄)(金)(投)(资)(交)(易)(基)(金)(SPDRGoldTrust继)(续)(遭)(到)(清)(算)(。从)(4月)(下)(旬)(的)(高)(点)(减)(少)(了)(约)(340万)(盎)(司)(。
美)(国)(商)(品)(期)(货)(交)(易)(委)(员)(会)(的)(数)(据)(显)(示)(,在)(截)(至)(8月)(14日)(的)(一)(周)(内)(,COMEX黄)(金)(合)(约)(的)(净)(卖)(空)(合)(约)(升)(至)(创)(纪)(录)(高)(位)(,为)(77,273份)(合)(约)(。
ActivTrades首)(席)(分)(析)(师)(CarloAlbertoDeCasa表)(示)(,黄)(金)(价)(格)(在)(1180美)(元)(至)(1200美)(元)(之)(间)(盘)(整)(。
他)(表)(示)(:“如)(果)(价)(格)(突)(破)(1200美)(元)(,我)(们)(可)(能)(会)(有)(第)(一)(个)(积)(极)(的)(冲)(动)(,而)(回)(调)(至)(1180美)(元)(下)(方)(将)(再)(次)(证)(实)(过)(去)(几)(周)(的)(看)(跌)(趋)(势)(。”
分)(析)(人)(士)(指)(出)(,美)(元)(短)(线)(急)(跌)(、金)(价)(拉)(升)(的)(背)(后)(在)(于)(外)(媒)(刚)(刚)(又)(曝)(出)(一)(条)(与)(美)(国)(总)(统)(特)(朗)(普)((DonaldTrump)相)(关)(的)(猛)(料)(。
据)(MSNBC消)(息)(,美)(国)(总)(统)(特)(朗)(普)(前)(私)(人)(律)(师)(科)(恩)((MichaelCohen)的)(律)(师)(LannyDavis表)(示)(,科)(恩)(已)(经)(承)(认)(与)(俄)(罗)(斯)(勾)(结)(。其)(还)(表)(示)(毫)(无)(争)(议)(的)(是)(总)(统)(特)(朗)(普)(犯)(罪)(了)(,赫)(尔)(辛)(基)(峰)(会)(对)(于)(科)(恩)(来)(说)(是)(个)(转)(折)(点)(!
科)(恩)(掌)(握)(的)(信)(息)(不)(仅)(包)(括)(2016年)(大)(选)(期)(间)(有)(损)(美)(国)(民)(主)(体)(系)(的)(阴)(谋)(,还)(包)(括)(电)(脑)(黑)(客)(犯)(罪)(行)(为)(,以)(及)(特)(朗)(普)(是)(否)(事)(先)(知)(晓)(这)(些)(犯)(罪)(行)(为)(。
科)(恩)(的)(律)(师)(还)(称)(,科)(恩)(了)(解)(俄)(罗)(斯)(的)(阴)(谋)(,“毫)(无)(疑)(问)(特)(朗)(普)(犯)(罪)(了)(。”
美)(国)(广)(播)(公)(司)(ABC报)(道)(,Davis称)(,关)(于)(美)(国)(特)(别)(检)(察)(官)(穆)(勒)((RobertMueller)目)(前)(所)(进)(行)(的)(“通)(俄)(门)(”调)(查)(,科)(恩)(那)(里)(有)(穆)(勒)(“会)(感)(兴)(趣)(”的)(信)(息)(。
ABC新)(闻)(援)(引)(Davis表)(示)(,任)(何)(人)(只)(要)(询)(问)(关)(于)(特)(朗)(普)(的)(事)(情)(,科)(恩)(都)(会)(告)(知)(实)(情)(,而)(且)(即)(便)(特)(朗)(普)(对)(他)(行)(使)(赦)(免)(权)(,他)(也)(不)(会)(接)(受)(。Davis还)(表)(示)(,科)(恩)(将)(给)(出)(特)(朗)(普)(与)(俄)(罗)(斯)(勾)(结)(的)(证)(据)(。
对)(于)(前)(私)(人)(律)(师)(科)(恩)(的)(律)(师)(今)(天)(的)(言)(论)(,特)(朗)(普)(在)(推)(特)(中)(抨)(击)(道)(,如)(果)(有)(任)(何)(人)(寻)(求)(一)(名)(好)(的)(律)(师)(,我)(强)(烈)(建)(议)(你)(不)(要)(雇)(用)(科)(恩)(。值)(得)(注)(意)(的)(是)(,这)(是)(特)(朗)(普)(首)(次)(就)(此)(事)(发)(表)(实)(质)(性)(评)(论)(。
据)(报)(道)(,昨)(天)(,此)(前)(特)(朗)(普)(前)(律)(师)(科)(恩)(与)(公)(诉)(人)(达)(成)(认)(罪)(协)(议)(。美)(国)(众)(议)(院)(情)(报)(委)(员)(会)(民)(主)(党)(领)(袖)(称)(,科)(恩)(的)(认)(罪)(暗)(示)(了)(总)(统)(特)(朗)(普)(非)(法)(违)(反)(竞)(选)(资)(金)(相)(关)(法)(律)(的)(行)(为)(。
(图)(片)(来)(源)(:彭)(博)()
媒)(体)(称)(,科)(恩)(将)(面)(临)(3至)(5年)(的)(牢)(狱)(之)(灾)(。前)(联)(邦)(检)(察)(官)(克)(恩)(格)(里)(芬)(认)(为)(,科)(恩)(与)(检)(方)(合)(作)(可)(能)(会)(增)(加)(特)(朗)(普)(的)(法)(律)(风)(险)(,眼)(下)(外)(界)(关)(注)(他)(会)(否)(为)(了)(换)(取)(减)(刑)(而)(大)(爆)(料)(。
虽)(然)(科)(恩)(有)(关)(特)(朗)(普)(的)(言)(论)(可)(能)(会)(引)(发)(弹)(劾)(呼)(声)(,但)(不)(太)(可)(能)(引)(发)(指)(控)(。根)(据)(美)(国)(司)(法)(部)(在)(1973年)(和)(2000年)(进)(行)(的)(法)(律)(分)(析)(,宪)(法)(不)(允)(许)(对)(在)(任)(总)(统)(提)(出)(刑)(事)(起)(诉)(。
分)(析)(人)(士)(指)(出)(,昨)(天)(两)(名)(“亲)(信)(”都)(被)(控)(有)(罪)(,导)(致)(特)(朗)(普)(遭)(遇)(总)(统)(任)(期)(以)(来)(最)(糟)(糕)(的)(一)(天)(。今)(天)(科)(恩)(律)(师)(的)(言)(论)(更)(是)(进)(一)(步)(打)(击)(特)(朗)(普)(,通)(俄)(门)(的)(调)(查)(出)(现)(重)(大)(进)(展)(。
除)(了)(科)(恩)(的)(认)(罪)(之)(外)(,昨)(天)(陪)(审)(团)(裁)(定)(特)(朗)(普)(前)(竞)(选)(主)(席)(马)(纳)(福)(特)((PaulManafort)八)(项)(罪)(名)(成)(立)(,包)(括)(五)(项)(税)(务)(欺)(诈)(罪)(名)(、一)(项)(未)(披)(露)(海)(外)(银)(行)(帐)(户)(罪)(名)(以)(及)(两)(项)(银)(行)(欺)(诈)(罪)(名)(,另)(有)(10项)(罪)(名)(审)(判)(无)(效)(。这)(是)(美)(国)(“通)(俄)(门)(”调)(查)(中)(的)(首)(场)(审)(判)(。
对)(此)(,美)(国)(总)(统)(特)(朗)(普)(称)(,曾)(任)(其)(竞)(选)(团)(队)(主)(席)(的)(马)(纳)(福)(特)(被)(裁)(定)(有)(罪)(一)(事)(“非)(常)(令)(人)(伤)(心)(”,并)(再)(次)(将)(特)(别)(检)(察)(官)(穆)(勒)(对)(俄)(罗)(斯)(干)(涉)(2016年)(大)(选)(的)(调)(查)(称)(作)(一)(场)(“政)(治)(迫)(害)(”。
特)(朗)(普)(说)(,马)(纳)(福)(特)(案)(件)(“与)(通)(俄)(无)(关)(”,并)(补)(充)(说)(该)(案)(件)(“不)(涉)(及)(我)(本)(人)(”。“这)(是)(一)(场)(政)(治)(迫)(害)(和)(耻)(辱)(,”他)(说)(。
美)(联)(储)(纪)(要)(或)(释)(放)(加)(息)(信)(号)(美)(元)(真)(摔)(还)(是)(假)(跌)(就)(看)(这)(两)(天)(
北)(京)(时)(间)(周)(四)(凌)(晨)(2时)(,美)(联)(储)(将)(公)(布)(最)(新)(的)(会)(议)(纪)(要)(。CME美)(联)(储)(观)(察)(实)(时)(数)(据)(显)(示)(,美)(联)(储)(9月)(份)(加)(息)(的)(概)(率)(达)(到)(93.6%;12月)(加)(息)(概)(率)(则)(高)(达)(97.8%。
北)(欧)(联)(合)(银)(行)(指)(出)(,如)(果)(8月)(美)(联)(储)(会)(议)(纪)(要)(里)(有)(任)(何)(值)(得)(挖)(掘)(的)(东)(西)(,所)(有)(人)(都)(会)(感)(到)(意)(外)(。预)(计)(美)(联)(储)(将)(在)(9月)(及)(12月)(顺)(利)(加)(息)(,没)(有)(任)(何)(迹)(象)(显)(示)(美)(联)(储)(为)(此)(犹)(豫)(。
分)(析)(人)(士)(称)(,尽)(管)(特)(朗)(普)(炮)(轰)(美)(联)(储)(升)(息)(,但)(是)(鲍)(威)(尔)(们)(料)(不)(会)(为)(其)(所)(动)(,未)(来)(预)(计)(继)(续)(升)(息)(。
因)(此)(,未)(来)(数)(月)(,“不)(高)(兴)(”很)(可)(能)(成)(为)(美)(国)(总)(统)(特)(朗)(普)(的)(一)(种)(常)(见)(心)(态)(,因)(为)(美)(联)(储)((FED)可)(能)(继)(续)(推)(进)(加)(息)(,以)(呼)(应)(受)(到)(总)(统)(自)(身)(减)(税)(政)(策)(助)(推)(的)(经)(济)(形)(势)(。
特)(朗)(普)(周)(一)(用)(“不)(高)(兴)(”来)(描)(述)(他)(对)(美)(联)(储)(在)(鲍)(威)(尔)(治)(下)(采)(取)(升)(息)(行)(动)(的)(心)(情)(。六)(个)(月)(前)(,是)(特)(朗)(普)(提)(名)(鲍)(威)(尔)(担)(任)(美)(联)(储)(主)(席)(。特)(朗)(普)(还)(表)(示)(,希)(望)(美)(联)(储)(能)(够)(为)(经)(济)(提)(供)(更)(多)(帮)(助)(。
一)(天)(后)(,达)(拉)(斯)(联)(储)(主)(席)(卡)(普)(兰)(在)(一)(篇)(文)(章)(中)(表)(示)(,鉴)(于)(美)(国)(经)(济)(的)(强)(劲)(态)(势)(,再)(加)(息)(三)(到)(四)(次)(是)(实)(现)(持)(续)(经)(济)(增)(长)(的)(“最)(佳)(机)(会)(”。他)(往)(往)(让)(自)(己)(的)(观)(点)(与)(鲍)(威)(尔)(保)(持)(一)(致)(。
此)(文)(表)(明)(,卡)(普)(兰)(认)(为)(特)(朗)(普)(的)(1.5万)(亿)(美)(元)(减)(税)(政)(策)(和)(今)(年)(的)(预)(算)(协)(议)(正)(在)(帮)(助)(推)(低)(失)(业)(率)(,并)(帮)(助)(通)(胀)(率)(回)(升)(到)(美)(联)(储)(的)(2.0%目)(标)(水)(准)(。美)(联)(储)(内)(部)(普)(遍)(持)(有)(这)(种)(观)(点)(。
货)(币)(政)(策)(制)(定)(者)(担)(心)(,如)(果)(不)(逐)(步)(加)(息)(,美)(国)(经)(济)(可)(能)(会)(过)(热)(,迫)(使)(美)(联)(储)(积)(极)(升)(息)(,并)(可)(能)(使)(美)(国)(陷)(入)(衰)(退)(。美)(联)(储)(今)(年)(已)(升)(息)(两)(次)(,预)(计)(下)(个)(月)(还)(将)(升)(息)(。
多)(数)(分)(析)(师)(都)(认)(为)(,考)(虑)(到)(美)(联)(储)(在)(法)(律)(上)(的)(独)(立)(地)(位)(,特)(朗)(普)(的)(批)(评)(对)(美)(联)(储)(的)(升)(息)(计)(划)(影)(响)(甚)(微)(。交)(易)(员)(预)(计)(,美)(联)(储)(将)(于)(9月)(和)(12月)(加)(息)(,届)(时)(短)(期)(利)(率)(应)(达)(到)(2.0%-2.25%之)(间)(。
RBCCapitalMarkets分)(析)(师)(称)(,鲍)(威)(尔)(周)(五)(在)(杰)(克)(逊)(霍)(尔)(央)(行)(年)(会)(上)(发)(表)(讲)(话)(时)(,可)(能)(会)(因)(特)(朗)(普)(言)(论)(而)(面)(对)(一)(些)(令)(人)(不)(悦)(的)(提)(问)(,“但)(这)(不)(会)(改)(变)(未)(来)(的)(经)(济)(形)(势)(抑)(或)(是)(美)(联)(储)(政)(策)(”。
CornerstoneMacro分)(析)(师)(RobertoPerli表)(示)(,美)(联)(储)(有)(可)(能)(不)(是)(在)(12月)(,就)(会)(在)(明)(年)(3月)(暂)(停)(升)(息)(,这)(非)(因)(特)(朗)(普)(施)(压)(所)(致)(,乃)(是)(因)(为)(在)(联)(邦)(基)(金)(利)(率)(逼)(近)(中)(性)(而)(可)(能)(仍)(未)(浮)(现)(通)(胀)(威)(胁)(的)(背)(景)(下)(,这)(是)(应)(该)(做)(的)(事)(。
DailyFX撰)(文)(指)(出)(,美)(元)(指)(数)(暂)(时)(失)(守)(关)(键)(支)(撑)(位)(,短)(期)(见)(顶)(风)(险)(开)(始)(显)(现)(。不)(过)(美)(元)(基)(本)(面)(仍)(无)(懈)(可)(击)(,接)(下)(来)(将)(要)(公)(布)(的)(美)(联)(储)(会)(议)(纪)(要)(以)(及)(美)(联)(储)(主)(席)(鲍)(威)(尔)(在)(杰)(克)(逊)(霍)(尔)(年)(会)(上)(的)(讲)(话)(可)(能)(挽)(救)(美)(元)(。明)(天)(凌)(晨)(美)(联)(储)(8月)(货)(币)(政)(策)(会)(议)(纪)(要)(将)(出)(炉)(,另)(外)(全)(球)(央)(行)(年)(会)(也)(将)(开)(幕)(。
尽)(管)(8月)(会)(议)(未)(有)(政)(策)(转)(变)(动)(作)(,但)(委)(员)(们)(仍)(维)(持)(相)(当)(鹰)(派)(的)(立)(场)(。会)(议)(纪)(要)(若)(再)(度)(重)(申)(乐)(观)(预)(期)(和)(既)(定)(加)(息)(路)(径)(,无)(疑)(将)(继)(续)(支)(持)(美)(元)(。
周)(五)(美)(联)(储)(主)(席)(鲍)(威)(尔)(将)(在)(杰)(克)(逊)(霍)(尔)(年)(会)(上)(发)(表)(讲)(话)(,在)(被)(特)(朗)(普)(施)(压)(之)(后)(美)(联)(储)(作)(何)(反)(应)(值)(得)(市)(场)(期)(待)(。保)(持)(政)(策)(独)(立)(的)(美)(联)(储)(若)(继)(续)(表)(达)(强)(硬)(态)(度)((继)(续)(加)(息)(),美)(元)(指)(数)(则)(可)(能)(重)(回)(上)(涨)(。返)(回)(搜)(狐)(,查)(看)(更)(多)(责)(任)(编)(辑)(:
声)(明)(:该)(文)(观)(点)(仅)(代)(表)(作)(者)(本)(人)(,搜)(狐)(号)(系)(信)(息)(发)(布)(平)(台)(,搜)(狐)(仅)(提)(供)(信)(息)(存)(储)(空)(间)(服)(务)(。
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