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2018年就业形势预计总体乐观

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2018年10月23日 22:00:43
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(原)(标)(题)(:2018年)(就)(业)(形)(势)(预)(计)(总)(体)(乐)(观)(
机)(构)(观)(点)(
本)(报)(记)(者)(唐)(福)(勇)(
“利)(用)(计)(量)(经)(济)(模)(型)(,剔)(除)(趋)(势)(性)(因)(素)(以)(及)(季)(节)(性)(变)(化)(等)(因)(素)(,2017年)(第)(四)(季)(度)(中)(国)(就)(业)(市)(场)(景)(气)(指)(数)((CIER)与)(上)(一)(季)(度)(基)(本)(持)(平)(,但)(高)(于)(2016年)(同)(期)(水)(平)(。这)(一)(特)(征)(表)(明)(,就)(业)(形)(势)(稳)(中)(向)(好)(。模)(型)(进)(一)(步)(预)(测)(表)(明)(,2018年)(第)(一)(季)(度)(CI?ER指)(数)(会)(出)(现)(季)(节)(性)(回)(落)(,但)(第)(二)(季)(度)(基)(本)(持)(平)(,第)(三)(季)(度)(和)(第)(四)(季)(度)(将)(继)(续)(保)(持)(上)(行)(态)(势)(。这)(也)(意)(味)(着)(2018年)(就)(业)(形)(势)(预)(测)(总)(体)(乐)(观)(。”
以)(上)(是)(中)(国)(人)(民)(大)(学)(中)(国)(就)(业)(研)(究)(所)(和)(智)(联)(招)(聘)(1月)(16日)(联)(合)(发)(布)(的)(2017年)(第)(四)(季)(度)(《中)(国)(就)(业)(市)(场)(景)(气)(报)(告)(》中)(透)(露)(的)(观)(点)(。
报)(告)(显)(示)(,2017年)(第)(四)(季)(度)(,国)(民)(经)(济)(保)(持)(稳)(中)(向)(好)(的)(发)(展)(态)(势)(,迈)(入)(2017年)(度)(“收)(官)(季)(”。国)(家)(统)(计)(局)(最)(新)(数)(据)(显)(示)(,1-11月)(份)(,全)(国)(规)(模)(以)(上)(工)(业)(增)(加)(值)(同)(比)(增)(长)(6.6%,比)(上)(年)(同)(期)(加)(快)(0.6个)(百)(分)(点)(。同)(时)(,8家)(权)(威)(机)(构)(对)(2017年)(四)(季)(度)(GDP平)(均)(预)(测)(值)(为)(6.7%,趋)(势)(企)(稳)(。得)(益)(于)(宏)(观)(经)(济)(的)(利)(好)(环)(境)(,虽)(然)(第)(四)(季)(度)(为)(全)(年)(中)(的)(传)(统)(求)(职)(“淡)(季)(”,申)(请)(人)(数)(持)(续)(下)(降)(,但)(因)(同)(期)(企)(业)(用)(工)(需)(求)(持)(续)(增)(加)(,第)(四)(季)(度)(CIER指)(数)(上)(升)(至)(高)(点)(,达)(2.91。总)(体)(来)(看)(,与)(上)(季)(度)(预)(测)(相)(一)(致)(,该)(季)(度)(景)(气)(指)(数)(持)(续)(向)(好)(,但)(结)(构)(矛)(盾)(依)(旧)(突)(出)(。
分)(行)(业)(来)(看)(,2017年)(第)(四)(季)(度)(不)(同)(行)(业)(之)(间)(的)(就)(业)(景)(气)(极)(化)(程)(度)(有)(所)(缓)(和)(,CIER指)(数)(最)(高)(和)(最)(低)(行)(业)(之)(间)(的)(差)(别)(倍)(数)(下)(降)(为)(14倍)(,较)(第)(三)(季)(度)(28倍)(的)(差)(别)(倍)(数)(有)(明)(显)(回)(落)(。就)(业)(景)(气)(最)(好)(的)(仍)(为)(互)(联)(网)(/电)(子)(商)(务)(行)(业)(,但)(CIER指)(数)(降)(为)(10.24。同)(时)(,教)(育)(/培)(训)(/院)(校)(行)(业)(和)(房)(地)(产)(/建)(筑)(/建)(材)(/工)(程)(行)(业)(的)(排)(名)(有)(明)(显)(提)(高)(。值)(得)(注)(意)(的)(是)(,随)(着)(季)(节)(性)(消)(费)(带)(来)(的)(钢)(铁)(煤)(炭)(价)(格)(持)(续)(上)(涨)(,以)(及)(供)(给)(侧)(结)(构)(性)(改)(革)(的)(持)(续)(推)(进)(,能)(源)(/矿)(产)(/采)(掘)(/冶)(炼)(在)(该)(季)(度)(并)(未)(出)(现)(在)(就)(业)(景)(气)(较)(差)(的)(行)(业)(中)(。
分)(区)(域)(来)(看)(,CIER指)(数)(呈)(现)(东)(部)(、中)(部)(、西)(部)(以)(及)(东)(北)(地)(区)(依)(次)(递)(减)(的)(趋)(势)(。东)(部)(地)(区)(平)(均)(一)(个)(求)(职)(者)(对)(应)(两)(个)(招)(聘)(岗)(位)(;该)(季)(度)(东)(北)(地)(区)(就)(业)(形)(势)(持)(续)(走)(低)(,CIER指)(数)(从)(第)(三)(季)(度)(的)(1.42下)(降)(为)(该)(季)(度)(的)(1.20。其)(中)(,长)(春)(、哈)(尔)(滨)(、大)(连)(、沈)(阳)(CIER指)(数)(均)(在)(1之)(下)(,沈)(阳)(仅)(为)(0.58,在)(东)(北)(城)(市)(中)(形)(势)(最)(为)(严)(峻)(。分)(城)(市)(等)(级)(来)(看)(,CIER指)(数)(仍)(呈)(现)(一)(线)(、新)(一)(线)(、二)(线)(以)(及)(三)(线)(城)(市)(依)(次)(递)(增)(的)(趋)(势)(,并)(且)(各)(等)(级)(城)(市)(CIER指)(数)(的)(环)(比)(均)(有)(所)(上)(升)(。其)(中)(,在)(一)(线)(城)(市)(中)(企)(业)(招)(聘)(需)(求)(人)(数)(要)(少)(于)(求)(职)(申)(请)(人)(数)(,就)(业)(景)(气)(度)(较)(低)(;而)(在)(二)(线)(和)(三)(线)(城)(市)(中)(,企)(业)(招)(聘)(需)(求)(人)(数)(要)(明)(显)(多)(于)(求)(职)(申)(请)(人)(数)(,就)(业)(形)(势)(相)(对)(较)(好)(。
在)(企)(业)(规)(模)(方)(面)(,第)(四)(季)(度)(大)(型)(企)(业)(CIER指)(数)(最)(高)(,为)(2.61,就)(业)(形)(势)(相)(对)(较)(好)(;小)(型)(企)(业)(CIER指)(数)(最)(低)(,为)(1.34,就)(业)(形)(势)(相)(对)(较)(差)(。从)(CIER指)(数)(的)(环)(比)(变)(化)(来)(看)(,该)(季)(度)(大)(型)(和)(中)(型)(企)(业)(的)(CIER指)(数)(环)(比)(上)(升)(,而)(小)(型)(和)(微)(型)(企)(业)(的)(CIER指)(数)(环)(比)(下)(降)(。
在)(企)(业)(性)(质)(方)(面)(,第)(四)(季)(度)(民)(营)(企)(业)(的)(CIER指)(数)(最)(高)(,为)(1.63;股)(份)(制)(企)(业)(、合)(资)(企)(业)(、国)(企)(和)(上)(市)(公)(司)(的)(CIER指)(数)(均)(高)(于)(1,表)(明)(这)(些)(企)(业)(招)(聘)(需)(求)(人)(数)(高)(于)(求)(职)(申)(请)(人)(数)(,就)(业)(形)(势)(相)(对)(较)(好)(;尽)(管)(外)(商)(独)(资)(企)(业)(的)(CIER指)(数)(仍)(处)(于)(低)(位)(,但)(从)(上)(季)(度)(的)(0.59已)(上)(升)(为)(该)(季)(度)(的)(0.93,其)(状)(况)(已)(有)(明)(显)(改)(变)(。
报)(告)(显)(示)(,在)(就)(业)(景)(气)(较)(差)(的)(行)(业)(中)(,印)(刷)(/包)(装)(/造)(纸)(、电)(气)(/电)(力)(/水)(利)(、检)(验)(/检)(测)(/认)(证)(等)(行)(业)(的)(CIER指)(数)(仍)(然)(偏)(低)(,这)(些)(行)(业)(多)(属)(于)(传)(统)(制)(造)(业)(,在)(中)(国)(经)(济)(产)(业)(升)(级)(和)(供)(给)(侧)(结)(构)(性)(改)(革)(的)(大)(背)(景)(下)(,企)(业)(面)(临)(新)(旧)(动)(能)(转)(型)(升)(级)(的)(诸)(多)(挑)(战)(,企)(业)(对)(于)(人)(才)(的)(招)(聘)(需)(求)(相)(对)(较)(小)(,造)(成)(了)(就)(业)(形)(势)(相)(对)(较)(差)(的)(局)(面)(。仪)(器)(仪)(表)(及)(工)(业)(自)(动)(化)(、办)(公)(用)(品)(及)(设)(备)(、租)(赁)(服)(务)(、物)(业)(管)(理)(/商)(业)(中)(心)(等)(行)(业)(排)(名)(略)(有)(调)(整)(,CIER指)(数)(有)(所)(上)(升)(,但)(仍)(在)(就)(业)(景)(气)(较)(差)(行)(业)(中)(。值)(得)(注)(意)(的)(是)(,能)(源)(/矿)(产)(/采)(掘)(/冶)(炼)(仍)(未)(出)(现)(在)(就)(业)(景)(气)(较)(差)(的)(十)(个)(行)(业)(中)(,第)(二)(季)(度)(CIER指)(数)(为)(0.60,第)(三)(季)(度)(为)(1.84,第)(四)(季)(度)(为)(1.68,就)(业)(形)(势)(向)(好)(的)(趋)(势)(明)(显)(。一)(方)(面)(由)(于)(冬)(季)(煤)(炭)(季)(节)(性)(消)(费)(增)(加)(及)(钢)(铁)(“冬)(储)(”带)(来)(价)(格)(回)(升)(,使)(得)(招)(聘)(需)(求)(人)(数)(增)(加)(,行)(业)(就)(业)(形)(势)(短)(期)(进)(一)(步)(好)(转)(;另)(一)(方)(面)(,随)(着)(钢)(铁)(、煤)(炭)(行)(业)(“去)(产)(能)(”政)(策)(的)(贯)(彻)(落)(实)(,以)(及)(供)(给)(侧)(结)(构)(性)(改)(革)(推)(进)(,相)(关)(行)(业)(的)(就)(业)(形)(势)(正)(在)(逐)(渐)(好)(转)(。总)(体)(而)(言)(,这)(些)(就)(业)(景)(气)(较)(差)(的)(行)(业)(中)(CIER指)(数)(有)(所)(上)(升)(,就)(业)(严)(峻)(形)(势)(略)(有)(缓)(和)(。返)(回)(搜)(狐)(,查)(看)(更)(多)(责)(任)(编)(辑)(:
声)(明)(:该)(文)(观)(点)(仅)(代)(表)(作)(者)(本)(人)(,搜)(狐)(号)(系)(信)(息)(发)(布)(平)(台)(,搜)(狐)(仅)(提)(供)(信)(息)(存)(储)(空)(间)(服)(务)(。
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