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——2018年二季度中国经济核心数据点评

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2018年11月22日 19:16:43
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(原)(标)(题)(:中)(国)(经)(济)(“转)(型)(提)(质)(”进)(行)(时)(——2018年)(二)(季)(度)(中)(国)(经)(济)(核)(心)(数)(据)(点)(评)(
路)(漫)(漫)(其)(修)(远)(兮)(,吾)(将)(上)(下)(而)(求)(索)(
2018年)(第)(二)(季)(度)(,全)(球)(经)(济)(形)(势)(趋)(于)(复)(杂)(,金)(融)(市)(场)(震)(荡)(加)(剧)(。在)(此)(背)(景)(下)(,中)(国)(经)(济)(的)(新)(韧)(性)(依)(然)(稳)(固)(。根)(据)(7月)(16日)(公)(布)(的)(数)(据)(,总)(量)(走)(势)(方)(面)(,虽)(然)(二)(季)(度)(中)(国)(经)(济)(同)(比)(增)(速)(为)(6.7%,较)(一)(季)(度)(略)(有)(下)(降)(,但)(上)(半)(年)(总)(体)(同)(比)(增)(速)(仍)(维)(持)(在)(6.8%。
这)(表)(明)(,以)(供)(给)(侧)(改)(革)(的)(深)(化)(激)(发)(中)(国)(经)(济)(的)(内)(生)(动)(力)(,是)(当)(前)(抵)(御)(外)(部)(冲)(击)(的)(有)(效)(举)(措)(。结)(构)(特)(征)(方)(面)(,得)(益)(于)(经)(济)(结)(构)(和)(生)(产)(效)(率)(的)(稳)(步)(优)(化)(,中)(国)(经)(济)(的)(转)(型)(升)(级)(正)(在)(开)(拓)(新)(空)(间)(,有)(望)(为)(下)(半)(年)(高)(质)(量)(发)(展)(夯)(实)(基)(础)(。
有)(鉴)(于)(此)(,2018年)(下)(半)(年)(,面)(对)(日)(益)(抬)(升)(的)(全)(球)(复)(苏)(不)(确)(定)(性)(,中)(国)(经)(济)(将)(通)(过)(改)(革)(开)(放)(再)(出)(发)(,进)(一)(步)(增)(强)(内)(劲)(、稳)(中)(求)(进)(。伴)(随)(供)(给)(侧)(改)(革)(的)(阶)(段)(转)(换)(,结)(构)(性)(通)(胀)(将)(迎)(来)(小)(高)(峰)(,在)(财)(政)(政)(策)(、货)(币)(政)(策)(和)(金)(融)(监)(管)(的)(新)(搭)(配)(下)(,结)(构)(性)(去)(杠)(杆)(将)(从)(粗)(放)(式)(、运)(动)(式)(转)(向)(“精)(细)(治)(理)(”。
中)(国)(经)(济)(坚)(守)(新)(韧)(性)(
2018年)(第)(二)(季)(度)(,全)(球)(地)(缘)(政)(治)(局)(势)(跌)(宕)(起)(伏)(、金)(融)(市)(场)(振)(荡)(不)(断)(。在)(外)(部)(压)(力)(下)(,中)(国)(经)(济)(增)(速)(虽)(然)(略)(有)(下)(降)(,但)(总)(体)(保)(持)(平)(稳)(。根)(据)(国)(家)(统)(计)(局)(数)(据)(,二)(季)(度)(中)(国)(经)(济)(同)(比)(增)(速)(为)(6.7%,较)(一)(季)(度)(下)(滑)(0.1个)(百)(分)(点)(,但)(上)(半)(年)(同)(比)(增)(速)(仍)(维)(持)(在)(6.8%。
详)(细)(来)(看)(,投)(资)(方)(面)(,上)(半)(年)(固)(定)(资)(产)(投)(资)(同)(比)(增)(速)(为)(6.0%,较)(一)(季)(度)(下)(降)(1.5个)(百)(分)(点)(,但)(是)(民)(间)(投)(资)(趋)(于)(活)(跃)(,同)(比)(增)(速)(较)(上)(年)(同)(期)(提)(振)(1.2个)(百)(分)(点)(。这)(符)(合)(我)(们)(此)(前)(报)(告)(预)(期)(,表)(明)(在)(滞)(后)(约)(一)(年)(后)(,持)(续)(的)(企)(业)(盈)(利)(改)(善)(正)(在)(引)(导)(民)(间)(投)(资)(扩)(张)(。消)(费)(方)(面)(,上)(半)(年)(社)(会)(消)(费)(品)(零)(售)(总)(额)(同)(比)(增)(速)(为)(9.4%,较)(一)(季)(度)(下)(降)(0.4个)(百)(分)(点)(,表)(明)(在)(经)(历)(前)(一)(阶)(段)(发)(力)(之)(后)(,消)(费)(引)(擎)(阶)(段)(性)(转)(弱)(。相)(比)(而)(言)(,上)(半)(年)(最)(终)(消)(费)(支)(出)(对)(经)(济)(增)(长)(的)(贡)(献)(率)(高)(达)(78.5%,不)(仅)(高)(于)(同)(期)(资)(本)(形)(成)(47.1个)(百)(分)(点)(,亦)(超)(过)(一)(季)(度)(水)(平)(,表)(明)(增)(长)(引)(擎)(仍)(从)(投)(资)(端)(向)(消)(费)(端)(持)(续)(转)(移)(。出)(口)(方)(面)(,2018年)(上)(半)(年)(,中)(国)(进)(口)(与)(出)(口)(的)(同)(比)(增)(速)(剪)(刀)(差)(高)(达)(6.6个)(百)(分)(点)(,货)(物)(贸)(易)(顺)(差)(已)(连)(续)(8个)(季)(度)(同)(比)(收)(窄)(。
这)(表)(明)(,随)(着)(对)(外)(开)(放)(扩)(大)(和)(贸)(易)(再)(平)(衡)(,中)(国)(经)(济)(增)(长)(对)(净)(出)(口)(的)(依)(赖)(程)(度)(正)(在)(进)(一)(步)(下)(降)(。综)(上)(所)(述)(,今)(年)(二)(季)(度)(,以)(供)(给)(侧)(改)(革)(红)(利)(为)(基)(础)(,中)(国)(经)(济)(的)(内)(生)(增)(长)(动)(力)(保)(持)(平)(稳)(,总)(体)(受)(外)(部)(冲)(击)(的)(影)(响)(相)(对)(有)(限)(。
转)(型)(升)(级)(迈)(向)(新)(空)(间)(
在)(总)(量)(走)(势)(保)(持)(稳)(健)(的)(同)(时)(,今)(年)(二)(季)(度)(,中)(国)(经)(济)(的)(转)(型)(升)(级)(亦)(在)(外)(部)(压)(力)(下)(积)(极)(提)(速)(。生)(产)(效)(率)(的)(改)(善)(,叠)(加)(经)(济)(结)(构)(的)(优)(化)(,有)(望)(为)(下)(半)(年)(中)(国)(经)(济)(的)(高)(质)(量)(发)(展)(夯)(实)(基)(础)(。
第)(一)(,生)(产)(效)(率)(势)(头)(向)(好)(。
年)(初)(至)(今)(,随)(着)(生)(产)(端)(效)(率)(进)(一)(步)(提)(升)(,企)(业)(盈)(利)(能)(力)(的)(改)(善)(势)(头)(仍)(在)(延)(续)(。上)(半)(年)(,单)(位)(国)(内)(生)(产)(总)(值)(能)(耗)(同)(比)(降)(低)(3.2%,全)(国)(工)(业)(产)(能)(利)(用)(率)(比)(上)(年)(同)(期)(提)(高)(0.3个)(百)(分)(点)(。今)(年)(1-5月)(,规)(模)(以)(上)(工)(业)(企)(业)(的)(利)(润)(总)(额)(同)(比)(上)(升)(16.5%,主)(营)(业)(务)(收)(入)(利)(润)(率)(较)(上)(年)(同)(期)(上)(升)(0.35个)(百)(分)(点)(。
第)(二)(,结)(构)(调)(整)(持)(续)(发)(力)(。
生)(产)(效)(率)(的)(高)(位)(稳)(定)(,主)(要)(得)(益)(于)(经)(济)(结)(构)(调)(整)(的)(不)(断)(深)(化)(。从)(工)(业)(内)(部)(来)(看)(,上)(半)(年)(,较)(之)(于)(规)(模)(以)(上)(工)(业)(,工)(业)(战)(略)(性)(新)(兴)(产)(业)(增)(加)(值)(的)(同)(比)(增)(速)(高)(出)(2.0个)(百)(分)(点)(;较)(之)(于)(制)(造)(业)(总)(体)(,高)(技)(术)(制)(造)(业)(投)(资)(的)(同)(比)(增)(速)(高)(出)(6.3个)(百)(分)(点)(,优)(势)(较)(一)(季)(度)(更)(为)(明)(显)(。这)(表)(明)(,随)(着)(要)(素)(驱)(动)(向)(创)(新)(驱)(动)(转)(型)(,中)(国)(制)(造)(业)(的)(高)(端)(化)(发)(展)(正)(在)(提)(速)(迈)(步)(。从)(产)(业)(全)(局)(来)(看)(,二)(季)(度)(,第)(三)(产)(业)(增)(加)(值)(对)(经)(济)(增)(长)(的)(贡)(献)(率)(高)(达)(54.3%,高)(于)(第)(二)(产)(业)(13.9个)(百)(分)(点)(。同)(时)(,第)(一)(产)(业)(、第)(三)(产)(业)(的)(投)(资)(增)(速)(,分)(别)(较)(第)(二)(产)(业)(高)(出)(9.7个)(和)(3个)(百)(分)(点)(,正)(在)(构)(建)(更)(为)(合)(理)(、平)(衡)(的)(中)(国)(经)(济)(产)(业)(结)(构)(。
稳)(中)(求)(进)(呈)(现)(新)(特)(征)(
2018年)(下)(半)(年)(,国)(际)(地)(缘)(政)(治)(形)(势)(将)(进)(一)(步)(加)(剧)(全)(球)(复)(苏)(的)(不)(确)(定)(性)(。面)(对)(可)(能)(扩)(大)(的)(外)(部)(压)(力)(,中)(国)(经)(济)(将)(通)(过)(改)(革)(开)(放)(再)(出)(发)(,进)(一)(步)(增)(强)(内)(劲)(、稳)(中)(求)(进)(。供)(给)(侧)(改)(革)(深)(化)(和)(结)(构)(性)(去)(杠)(杆)(将)(成)(为)(下)(半)(年)(的)(政)(策)(主)(轴)(,并)(将)(塑)(造)(中)(国)(经)(济)(阶)(段)(性)(的)(新)(特)(征)(。
其)(一)(,结)(构)(性)(通)(胀)(迎)(来)(小)(高)(峰)(。
纵)(览)(全)(局)(,中)(国)(供)(给)(侧)(改)(革)(可)(以)(分)(为)(两)(个)(阶)(段)(。第)(一)(阶)(段)(是)(供)(给)(调)(整)(,减)(法)(效)(应)(强)(于)(加)(法)(效)(应)(,社)(会)(总)(供)(给)(收)(缩)(而)(非)(扩)(张)(,推)(动)(通)(胀)(上)(行)(。第)(二)(阶)(段)(是)(供)(给)(扩)(张)(。随)(着)(优)(质)(新)(供)(给)(的)(逐)(步)(发)(展)(,社)(会)(总)(供)(给)(转)(向)(扩)(张)(,进)(而)(减)(弱)(通)(胀)(势)(能)(。2018年)(下)(半)(年)(将)(是)(第)(一)(阶)(段)(的)(高)(潮)(和)(尾)(声)(,中)(国)(结)(构)(性)(通)(胀)(将)(出)(现)(较)(强)(反)(弹)(,翻)(越)(一)(个)(小)(高)(峰)(,此)(后)(在)(2019年)(渐)(次)(转)(入)(温)(和)(状)(态)(。在)(翻)(越)(小)(高)(峰)(期)(间)(,PPI与)(CPI的)(增)(速)(剪)(刀)(差)(有)(望)(再)(次)(扩)(大)(,并)(且)(在)(PPI内)(部)(,生)(产)(资)(料)(和)(生)(活)(资)(料)(的)(价)(格)(增)(速)(剪)(刀)(差)(也)(将)(走)(阔)(。CPI内)(部)(将)(延)(续)(结)(构)(分)(化)(。消)(费)(升)(级)(类)(商)(品)(的)(物)(价)(上)(涨)(将)(快)(于)(基)(本)(生)(活)(类)(商)(品)((除)(石)(油)(及)(制)(品)(类)(),服)(务)(类)((医)(疗)(、教)(育)(、文)(娱)(旅)(游)(等)()价)(格)(上)(升)(将)(快)(于)(消)(费)(品)(。
2018年)(是)(供)(给)(侧)(改)(革)(的)(承)(上)(启)(下)(之)(年)(
资)(料)(来)(源)(:我)(们)(的)(整)(理)(
其)(二)(,结)(构)(性)(去)(杠)(杆)(开)(启)(新)(模)(型)(。
2017年)(至)(2018年)(上)(半)(年)(,财)(政)(政)(策)(、货)(币)(政)(策)(和)(金)(融)(监)(管)(的)(“三)(管)(齐)(下)(”,有)(效)(减)(缓)(了)(宏)(观)(杠)(杆)(率)(的)(上)(升)(。2018年)(下)(半)(年)(,去)(杠)(杆)(将)(从)(粗)(放)(式)(、运)(动)(式)(转)(向)(“精)(细)(治)(理)(”:既)(需)(要)(精)(准)(把)(握)(总)(量)(,避)(免)(放)(大)(经)(济)(下)(行)(压)(力)(,又)(需)(要)(在)(结)(构)(上)(准)(确)(区)(别)(杠)(杆)(性)(质)(,支)(持)(经)(济)(结)(构)(的)(调)(整)(。围)(绕)(于)(此)(,新)(的)(政)(策)(搭)(配)(有)(望)(在)(下)(半)(年)(形)(成)(。追)(根)(溯)(源)(,地)(方)(政)(府)(加)(杠)(杆)(是)(宏)(观)(高)(杠)(杆)(的)(根)(源)(,并)(通)(过)(预)(算)(软)(约)(束)(,倒)(逼)(金)(融)(部)(门)(杠)(杆)(率)(的)(提)(升)(。为)(根)(除)(病)(源)(,从)(2018年)(下)(半)(年)(开)(始)(,以)(处)(置)(地)(方)(债)(风)(险)(为)(重)(心)(,财)(政)(政)(策)(在)(去)(杠)(杆)(领)(域)(有)(望)(大)(幅)(加)(码)(。金)(融)(监)(管)(则)(将)(着)(重)(于)(打)(破)(刚)(兑)(、拆)(解)(影)(子)(银)(行)(,硬)(化)(地)(方)(政)(府)(和)(国)(企)(的)(预)(算)(软)(约)(束)(,支)(持)(财)(政)(去)(杠)(杆)(落)(地)(。与)(之)(对)(应)(,在)(稳)(健)(中)(性)(的)(基)(调)(上)(,货)(币)(政)(策)(有)(望)(边)(际)(略)(偏)(松)(,适)(度)(缓)(解)(财)(政)(去)(杠)(杆)(和)(金)(融)(严)(监)(管)(导)(致)(的)(流)(动)(性)(短)(缺)(,使)(信)(贷)(供)(给)(匹)(配)(实)(体)(经)(济)(的)(复)(苏)(需)(求)(,避)(免)(信)(用)(违)(约)(风)(险)(向)(流)(动)(性)(风)(险)(升)(级)(。
由)(此)(,我)(们)(预)(判)(,2018年)(下)(半)(年)(,央)(行)(将)(利)(用)(“上)(调)(市)(场)(利)(率)(+定)(向)(降)(准)(”的)(政)(策)(工)(具)(,在)(不)(同)(阶)(段)(顺)(势)(聚)(焦)(不)(同)(的)(政)(策)(重)(心)(。第)(一)(,考)(虑)(到)(美)(联)(储)(有)(望)(年)(内)(总)(共)(加)(息)(四)(次)(,其)(下)(一)(次)(加)(息)(将)(大)(概)(率)(发)(生)(在)(9月)(,届)(时)(中)(国)(央)(行)(有)(望)(跟)(随)(上)(调)(公)(开)(市)(场)(操)(作)(利)(率)(5个)(基)(点)(,使)(中)(美)(利)(差)(稳)(定)(于)(舒)(适)(区)(间)(,重)(心)(在)(于)(对)(冲)(三)(季)(度)(人)(民)(币)(汇)(率)(外)(部)(压)(力)(的)(短)(期)(集)(聚)(。第)(二)(,在)(第)(四)(季)(度)(,央)(行)(有)(望)(至)(少)(再)(进)(行)(一)(次)(定)(向)(降)(准)(,每)(次)(幅)(度)(预)(计)(为)(50个)(基)(点)(,以)(提)(振)(市)(场)(预)(期)(、降)(低)(长)(端)(利)(率)(,重)(心)(在)(于)(维)(护)(实)(体)(经)(济)(的)(稳)(定)(复)(苏)(。
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