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忽然有了节操的央行们

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2018年10月24日 09:21:30
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(原)(标)(题)(:忽)(然)(有)(了)(节)(操)(的)(央)(行)(们)(
来)(源)(:首)(席)(经)(济)(学)(家)(论)(坛)((ID:ccefccef)
注)(:本)(文)(作)(者)(为)(瑞)(信)(董)(事)(总)(经)(理)(、亚)(洲)(区)(首)(席)(经)(济)(学)(家)(,中)(国)(首)(席)(经)(济)(学)(家)(论)(坛)(理)(事)(陶)(冬)(
最)(近)(好)(像)(几)(大)(央)(行)(的)(口)(风)(都)(在)(变)(。年)(初)(时)(候)(欧)(洲)(央)(行)(行)(长)(德)(拉)(吉)(号)(称)(QE无)(极)(限)(,但)(是)(他)(在)(最)(近)(的)(例)(会)(上)(却)(称)(对)(货)(币)(政)(策)(产)(生)(效)(应)(需)(要)(有)(耐)(心)(,既)(没)(有)(增)(大)(QE规)(模)(,也)(没)(有)(延)(长)(买)(债)(时)(限)(。美)(国)(联)(储)(核)(心)(高)(官)(先)(后)(指)(出)(近)(期)(重)(回)(渐)(进)(式)(加)(息)(是)(合)(适)(的)(,连)(最)(鸽)(派)(的)(地)(方)(联)(储)(官)(员)(也)(认)(为)(加)(息)(宜)(早)(不)(宜)(迟)(。被)(视)(为)(中)(国)(人)(民)(银)(行)(喉)(舌)(的)(研)(究)(局)(首)(席)(经)(济)(师)(马)(骏)(,认)(为)(需)(要)(抑)(制)(房)(地)(产)(泡)(沫)(过)(度)(加)(大)(,抑)(制)(过)(度)(的)(金)(融)(资)(源)(流)(入)(房)(地)(产)(行)(业)(,记)(忆)(中)(这)(是)(第)(一)(次)(央)(行)(高)(官)(公)(开)(称)(房)(市)(为)(“泡)(沫)(”。日)(本)(银)(行)(总)(裁)(黑)(田)(则)(准)(备)(对)(当)(前)(的)(货)(币)(政)(策)(作)(出)(中)(期)(可)(持)(续)(性)(的)(评)(估)(。从)(大)(西)(洋)(两)(岸)(到)(太)(平)(洋)(制)(造)(大)(国)(,一)(时)(间)(央)(行)(们)(好)(像)(忽)(然)(找)(回)(了)(节)(操)(,纷)(纷)(叫)(停)(进)(一)(步)(QE。
节)(操)(这)(东)(西)(,丢)(掉)(了)(第)(一)(次)(,以)(后)(多)(数)(很)(难)(坚)(持)(。QE本)(是)(应)(付)(雷)(曼)(事)(件)(后)(金)(融)(海)(啸)(的)(救)(急)(之)(策)(,但)(是)(慢)(慢)(地)(变)(成)(了)(主)(流)(货)(币)(政)(策)(,几)(乎)(成)(为)(目)(前)(环)(境)(下)(的)(唯)(一)(政)(策)(选)(项)(。当)(下)(全)(球)(增)(长)(动)(力)(不)(足)(,不)(过)(暂)(时)(也)(看)(不)(到)(大)(的)(衰)(退)(甚)(至)(危)(机)(,央)(行)(有)(停)(顿)(一)(下)(的)(空)(间)(,何)(况)(QE政)(策)(在)(刺)(激)(实)(体)(经)(济)(上)(效)(果)(并)(不)(理)(想)(。但)(是)(一)(旦)(经)(济)(形)(势)(逆)(转)(,除)(了)(QE,笔)(者)(看)(不)(到)(货)(币)(政)(策)(有)(其)(它)(选)(择)(。央)(行)(理)(论)(上)(应)(该)(独)(立)(于)(政)(府)(,不)(过)(危)(机)(后)(各)(国)(央)(行)(基)(本)(上)(附)(属)(于)(行)(政)(当)(局)(,保)(增)(长)(是)(所)(有)(政)(客)(的)(需)(要)(,也)(成)(了)(央)(行)(义)(不)(容)(辞)(的)(职)(责)(。另)(外)(,这)(些)(年)(央)(行)(政)(策)(越)(来)(越)(受)(到)(市)(场)(波)(动)(的)(牵)(制)(,资)(产)(市)(场)(一)(有)(风)(吹)(草)(动)(,货)(币)(政)(策)(马)(上)(扑)(上)(救)(火)(。在)(一)(个)(实)(体)(经)(济)(乏)(善)(可)(成)(、金)(融)(资)(产)(估)(值)(飙)(升)(的)(时)(代)(,发)(生)(黑)(天)(鹅)(事)(件)(式)(的)(市)(场)(动)(荡)(越)(来)(越)(频)(繁)(,央)(行)(为)(了)(防)(范)(再)(出)(雷)(曼)(事)(件)(,往)(往)(第)(一)(时)(间)(灌)(水)(救)(火)(。这)(种)(央)(妈)(心)(态)(下)(,很)(难)(想)(象)(政)(策)(节)(操)(可)(以)(真)(的)(坚)(持)(下)(去)(。
坚)(持)(政)(策)(节)(操)(,不)(仅)(需)(要)(决)(心)(、意)(志)(,更)(需)(要)(一)(个)(支)(持)(的)(环)(境)(。如)(果)(经)(济)(真)(的)(出)(现)(起)(色)(,无)(需)(人)(为)(刺)(激)(亦)(可)(持)(续)(增)(长)(,则)(货)(币)(政)(策)(有)(机)(会)(走)(向)(正)(常)(化)(。但)(是)(唯)(有)(改)(革)(才)(能)(取)(得)(可)(持)(续)(的)(增)(长)(,改)(革)(势)(必)(触)(动)(既)(得)(利)(益)(集)(团)(,势)(必)(激)(起)(选)(民)(风)(暴)(。笔)(者)(暂)(时)(见)(不)(到)(各)(国)(如)(何)(打)(破)(改)(革)(困)(局)(,改)(革)(裹)(足)(不)(前)(,则)(只)(能)(依)(靠)(货)(币)(政)(策)(“吊)(盐)(水)(”。
在)(笔)(者)(看)(来)(,目)(前)(既)(没)(有)(见)(到)(央)(行)(重)(守)(节)(操)(的)(政)(治)(意)(愿)(,也)(没)(有)(出)(现)(守)(住)(节)(操)(的)(客)(观)(环)(境)(,央)(行)(们)(目)(前)(所)(为)(,不)(过)(是)(短)(期)(、技)(术)(性)(的)(调)(整)(,QE常)(态)(化)(依)(然)(是)(大)(趋)(势)(。
G20峰)(会)(上)(各)(国)(领)(袖)(明)(确)(表)(示)(,除)(了)(货)(币)(政)(策)(,需)(要)(推)(进)(改)(革)(政)(策)(和)(财)(政)(政)(策)(,这)(对)(于)(已)(经)(筋)(疲)(力)(竭)(的)(央)(行)(不)(啻)(是)(一)(个)(好)(消)(息)(。QE政)(策)(在)(部)(分)(国)(家)(已)(接)(近)(弹)(尽)(粮)(绝)(,而)(且)(对)(实)(体)(经)(济)(的)(刺)(激)(效)(果)(很)(不)(理)(想)(。此)(时)(此)(刻)(停)(顿)(一)(下)(,给)(行)(政)(当)(局)(施)(加)(压)(力)(,不)(失)(为)(聪)(明)(之)(举)(,不)(过)(策)(略)(性)(地)(表)(示)(“我)(要)(节)(操)(”,与)(年)(复)(一)(年)(地)(坚)(持)(货)(币)(政)(策)(独)(立)(性)(,根)(本)(是)(两)(回)(事)(情)(。回)(顾)(近)(年)(的)(央)(行)(在)(货)(币)(环)(境)(正)(常)(化)(上)(的)(言)(行)(,一)(直)(是)(说)(得)(多)(做)(得)(少)(,甚)(至)(说)(的)(和)(做)(的)(相)(反)(,这)(段)(时)(间)(还)(多)(出)(乱)(讲)(话)(的)(毛)(病)(,非)(但)(无)(助)(于)(经)(济)(,更)(混)(淆)(市)(场)(的)(视)(听)(,制)(造)(无)(谓)(的)(动)(荡)(。
央)(行)(们)(忽)(然)(拾)(起)(政)(策)(节)(操)(,不)(妨)(为)(他)(们)(喝)(一)(声)(彩)(,以)(示)(鼓)(励)(。至)(于)(立)(牌)(坊)(,需)(要)(多)(观)(察)(几)(年)(。
陶)(冬)(
瑞)(信)(董)(事)(总)(经)(理)(、亚)(洲)(区)(首)(席)(经)(济)(学)(家)(中)(国)(首)(席)(经)(济)(学)(家)(论)(坛)(理)(事)(。
"华)(尔)(街)(之)(父)("惊)(世)(骇)(俗)(的)(演)(讲)(:最)(珍)(贵)(的)(投)(资)(理)(念)(
"华)(尔)(街)(之)(父)("彼)(得)(·林)(奇)(在)(哈)(佛)(商)(学)(院)(纽)(约)(俱)(乐)(部)(1990年)(年)(度)(聚)(会)(--晚)(宴)(上)(的)(演)(讲)(,是)(迄)(今)(为)(止)(,最)(全)(、最)(珍)(贵)(的)(投)(资)(理)(念)(,这)(些)(投)(资)(理)(念)(不)(仅)(适)(合)(二)(级)(市)(场)(,也)(非)(常)(适)(合)(一)(级)(市)(场)(投)(资)(者)(反)(复)(学)(习)(与)(揣)(摩)(。关)(注)(金)(融)(晨)(读)(,足)(不)(出)(户)(,朝)(闻)(天)(下)(金)(融)(大)(事)(,助)(您)(投)(资)(、理)(财)(快)(人)(一)(步)(!
金)(融)(晨)(读)(
jinrongchd
长)(按)(二)(维)(码)(识)(别)(关)(注)(返)(回)(搜)(狐)(,查)(看)(更)(多)(责)(任)(编)(辑)(:
声)(明)(:该)(文)(观)(点)(仅)(代)(表)(作)(者)(本)(人)(,搜)(狐)(号)(系)(信)(息)(发)(布)(平)(台)(,搜)(狐)(仅)(提)(供)(信)(息)(存)(储)(空)(间)(服)(务)(。
阅)(读)(()
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